20141125-人大重阳-人大重阳研究报告第7期_A_Summit_of_Significant,Selective_Success_Prospects_for_the_Brisbane_G20_34页_1mb

RDCY Research Paper Summary: Prospects for the Brisbane G20 Summit

Core Content

The RDCY Research Paper analyzes the prospects for the 2014 Brisbane G20 summit, focusing on the summit's significance, challenges, and potential outcomes. The paper is authored by John Kirton, Co-director of the G20 Research Group at the University of Toronto and a Non-resident Senior Fellow at the Chongyang Institute for Financial Studies, Renmin University of China.

Key Points

G20 Summit Overview

• Location and Timing: The 9th G20 summit took place in Brisbane, Australia, on November 15-16, 2014.
• Host and Leadership: Australia, under Prime Minister Tony Abbott, hosted the summit. Other notable leaders included Indonesia's Joko Widodo, India's Narendra Modi, Italy's Matteo Renzi, and Turkey's Ahmet Davutoglu, who would host the 2015 summit.
• G20 Composition: The summit included both established members (such as the US, China, Russia, and Germany) and newer leaders, including those from the BRICS group.

Summit Challenges

• Geopolitical Tensions: The summit faced significant challenges due to the Russian annexation of Crimea, the conflict in Ukraine, the rise of ISIL in Syria and Iraq, and the Ebola epidemic in West Africa.
• Economic Priorities: Australia's agenda focused on growth, jobs, financial regulation, tax fairness, trade, and infrastructure finance.
• Leadership Dynamics: The summit was led by leaders with varying levels of experience, including first-time attendees and long-standing members.

Debate on Success

• Power Shift: One school of thought argued that the summit would reflect a shift in power from the US to emerging economies like China and India.
• Selective Success: Another school suggested that the summit would achieve progress on specific economic issues but struggle with security and social challenges.
• Security Expansion: A third school proposed that the summit could expand G20 security governance due to the presence of BRICS members and their support for Russia.
• Agenda Integration: A fourth school questioned whether the summit could effectively integrate economic and geopolitical issues due to the lack of focus and the host's political challenges.

Key Issues and Agendas

Economic Agenda

• Growth Target: The summit aimed to raise global growth by 2% above trend over the next five years.
• Financial Regulation: Focus on regulating "too big to fail" banks and establishing common reporting standards.
• Taxation: Addressing tax avoidance by multinational firms.
• Trade and Infrastructure: Promoting free trade and infrastructure finance.

Political and Security Agenda

• Ukraine Crisis: Russia's role in the conflict and its potential impact on the summit.
• ISIL and Ebola: Global security and health challenges that required international cooperation.
• BRICS Influence: The role of BRICS in shaping the summit's security agenda and their potential to resist Western demands.

Institutional and Governance Issues

• RDCY's Role: The Chongyang Institute for Financial Studies, RDCY, is a think tank that aims to study and promote the concept of "Great Finance" and serve as a platform for financial expertise.
• Global Governance: The G20 is transitioning from an economic crisis response body to a global steering committee, with a focus on economic, social, and security domains.

Summary of the Argument

The Brisbane G20 summit is expected to be a summit of significant, selective success. It will likely produce meaningful advances on economic priorities, but may struggle with more recent social and security challenges due to deep member divisions. The summit's success will be influenced by:

• The relative rise of the US in global economic influence.
• The decline of democratic commonality among members.
• The poor political cohesion in key countries.
• The security and health shocks that will draw attention to these areas, where major multilateral organizations have failed.

Plans and Preparations

• Finance Ministers Meetings: Multiple meetings were held in Sydney, Washington DC, and Cairns to prepare for the summit.
• B20 Summit: Held in Sydney in July 2014, it focused on business and economic issues.
• Sherpa Meetings: These meetings were held to discuss the summit's agenda and prepare for the leaders' discussions.
• Political Strategy: Australia's leadership approach evolved, with a focus on economic issues but also addressing geopolitical tensions.

Conclusion

The Brisbane G20 summit is seen as a worthy successor to previous summits, marking a shift from economic crisis response to broader global governance. Despite challenges, the summit will likely contribute to global economic growth and policy development, but may fall short in addressing security and social issues due to deep divisions and political constraints.

References

• Abbott, Tony (2014a), "This Year's G20: Getting the Fundamentals Right," Address to the World Economic Forum, Davos, Switzerland, 23 January.
• Abbott, Tony (2014b), "Address to the B20 Summit," Sydney, July 17.
• Abbott, Tony (2014c), "Address to the United Nations General Assembly," United Nations, New York, September 26.
• Australian (2014), "Let Putin face his critics," September 23.
• Australian G20 Presidency (2013), G20 2014: Overview of Australia's Presidency, December 2013.
• Callaghan, Mike (2014), "International Economic Summits: Are They Worth the Effort?" Caribbean Journal of International Relations & Diplomacy, Vol. 2, No. 3 (September): 111-123.
• Crowe, David (2014), "Putin Told to Solve Ukraine Crisis before Brisbane Summit," The Australian, 22 September.
• Earl, Greg (2014), "China's New Bank Plan Shows G20 Gear Shift Must Continue," Australian Financial Review, 18 September.
• Fidler, David (2014), "Tough Medicine for Health Governance," in John Kirton and Madeline Koch, eds., G20 – The Australia Summit: Brisbane (London: Newsdesk Media).
• Gurría, Angel (2014), "Building Resilience and Boosting Growth," in John Kirton and Madeline Koch, eds., G20 – The Australia Summit: Brisbane (London: Newsdesk Media).
• Jones, Bruce (2014), "Russian Roulette at the G20," East Asia Forum, 5 October.
• Kirton, John (2014a), "The G20 System Still Works: Better Than Ever," Caribbean Journal of International Relations & Diplomacy, 2014.
• Kirton, John (2014b), "China's G20 Diplomacy," Special study prepared for publication by the Chongyang Institute for Financial Studies, Renmin University of China.
• Mikuriya, Kunio (2014), "In Support of TFA Implementation," in John Kirton and Madeline Koch, eds., G20 – The Australia Summit: Brisbane (London: Newsdesk Media).
• Parry, Martin (2014), "G20 Grapples with Growth Targets as Eurozone Drags," Agence France Press, 18 September.
• Sexton-McGrath, Kristy (2014), "G20 Nations Split on Russian Leader Vladimir Putin's Visit to Brisbane," Australian Broadcasting Corporation (ABC) News, 21 September.
• Sidhartha (2014), "G20 Doesn't Shut Doors on Russia," Times of India, 22 September.
• Strauss, Delphine (2014), "Russia Battles to Keep Rouble Float on Track," Financial Times, 17 October.
• Zuma, Jacob (2014), "Lead by Example to Stimulate Growth," in John Kirton and Madeline Koch, eds., G20 – The Australia Summit: Brisbane (London: Newsdesk Media).