2012年-ECB欧洲央行_The_evolution_of_consumer_prices_for_oil_products_in_2011_5页_439kb
报告摘要
Summary: The Evolution of Consumer Prices for Oil Products in 2011
Core Content
The document examines the evolution of consumer prices for oil products in the euro area during 2011, focusing on the factors that contributed to the significant increase in energy inflation. It highlights how oil product prices, particularly transport and liquid heating fuels, played a central role in driving overall inflation, despite their relatively small weight in the Harmonised Index of Consumer Prices (HICP) basket.
Main Determining Factors
The price evolution of oil products in 2011 was influenced by several key factors:
- Crude Oil Prices: The average international crude oil price in 2011 was around USD 110 per barrel, up from USD 80 per barrel in 2010. In euro terms, crude oil prices fluctuated around €80 per barrel, leading to strong annual growth rates due to the lower base year prices.
- Refining Margins: Refining margins, or crack spreads, showed significant divergence between petrol and diesel. Diesel margins increased to around USD 20 per barrel in late 2011, while petrol margins fluctuated and even entered negative territory. This divergence was attributed to structural market imbalances in Europe, with a surplus in petrol and a deficit in diesel.
- Distribution Costs and Margins: Distribution costs and margins contributed to the price increases, with diesel experiencing a larger impact (1.6 euro cent per litre) compared to petrol (0.8 euro cent per litre) and heating fuel (0.4 euro cent per litre).
- Taxes: Taxes, including excise duties and VAT, had a substantial impact on consumer prices. Excise duties and VAT rate increases (by 0.2–0.4 percentage points) pushed up prices, with diesel being the most affected (4.8 euro cent per litre). Heating fuel was also impacted by lower excise duties, resulting in a higher percentage change in consumer prices.
Key Observations
- Consumer Price Increases:
- Petrol prices increased by 16 euro cent per litre.
- Diesel prices increased by 20 euro cent per litre.
- Heating fuel prices increased by 17.6 euro cent per litre.
- HICP Inflation Impact:
- Oil product price increases accounted for almost half of the overall HICP inflation rate of 2.7% in the first 11 months of 2011.
- Within energy price inflation (12.1%), oil products saw a 15.8% increase, compared to 7.9% for non-oil products.
- Structural Market Features:
- Europe's structural surplus in petrol and deficit in diesel influenced refining margins.
- The rise in demand for diesel due to its use in both transport and heating exacerbated the margin differences.
- Future Outlook:
- Assuming refining margins and tax policies remain stable, the anticipated path of crude oil prices in 2012 will likely result in a significant decline in annual oil product price inflation due to negative base effects.
Charts and Data
- Chart A: Shows the fluctuation of crude oil (Brent) prices in USD and EUR terms, highlighting the euro area's exposure to US dollar fluctuations.
- Chart B: Illustrates refining margins (crack spreads) for petrol and diesel, showing the divergence in late 2011.
- Chart C: Depicts annual percentage changes in transport fuel prices (petrol and diesel) based on the weekly Oil Bulletin.
- Chart D: Depicts annual percentage changes in liquid heating fuel prices, emphasizing the higher rate of increase compared to other oil products.
Decomposition of Price Changes
The estimated decomposition of average consumer prices for oil products in the euro area for 2011 is as follows:
| Component | Petrol (2010) | Petrol (2011) | Change (euro cent per litre) | Diesel (2010) | Diesel (2011) | Change (euro cent per litre) | Heating Fuel (2010) | Heating Fuel (2011) | Change (euro cent per litre) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Crude oil | 38.0 | 50.7 | 12.7 | 38.0 | 50.7 | 12.7 | 38.0 | 50.7 | 12.7 |
| Refining costs and margins | 3.5 | 2.0 | -1.6 | 4.8 | 5.8 | 1.0 | 4.8 | 5.8 | 1.0 |
| Distribution costs and margins | 12.2 | 13.0 | 0.8 | 12.9 | 14.5 | 1.6 | 9.7 | 10.1 | 0.4 |
| Pre-tax consumer price | 53.7 | 65.7 | 12.0 | 55.7 | 71.0 | 15.3 | 52.5 | 66.6 | 14.1 |
| Taxes, of which: | 81.3 | 85.5 | 4.2 | 59.4 | 64.2 | 4.8 | 21.0 | 24.5 | 3.5 |
| - Excise duty | 59.3 | 60.5 | 1.2 | 40.9 | 42.1 | 1.2 | 9.1 | 9.6 | 0.5 |
| - VAT | 22.0 | 25.0 | 3.0 | 18.5 | 22.1 | 3.6 | 11.9 | 14.9 | 3.0 |
| - VAT rate | 19.5% | 19.8% | 0.3 p.p. | 19.1% | 19.5% | 0.4 p.p. | 19.4% | 19.6% | 0.2 p.p. |
| Post-tax consumer price | 135.0 | 151.1 | 16.2 | 115.1 | 135.2 | 20.1 | 73.5 | 91.0 | 17.6 |
Conclusion
The significant rise in oil product prices in 2011 was driven primarily by increases in crude oil prices, combined with structural market imbalances and tax policies. These factors contributed to a substantial increase in HICP inflation, with oil products accounting for nearly half of the overall rate. The document also suggests that the price trends are expected to moderate in early 2012 due to base effects, assuming no major changes in the pricing chain.
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