20240520-招银国际-Property__NBS_4M24__REI_continued_weakening_as_expected__BJ_s_relaxation_showed_noticeable_effect_6页_967kb

洋葱投资银行国际全球市场 - 房地产行业更新（2024年5月20日）

一、主要内容概述

本报告强调房地产板块持续下行，政策放松带来结构性改善。重点概括如下：

1. 房地产投资（REI）持续疲软，2024年1-4月投资同比下降9.8%，虽然开工和竣工面积降幅有所收窄，但土地购置额下降影响显著。

2. 内需疲软仍明显，4月销售额同比降幅扩大，4月住宅销售面积同比下滑20.2%，销售额下降28.3%，价格虽有回升但区域分化明显。

3. 库存方面，全国待售商品房面积仍高达74600万平方米，去化周期达31.2个月，结构上三四线城市去化压力明显。

4. 政策方面，自4月30日政策基调转向后，各大城市陆续推出积极措施，包括一线城市放松政策、降首付比例、降房贷利率及央行3000亿元再贷款等。

5. 投资建议：偏好商业开发企业如华润置地、凯润股份、新世界发展，房地产代运营企业贝壳，开发商推荐华润置地（长期价值）。建议关注碧桂园服务、格林控股（重组焕新者）等。

二、政策放松成效

阶段性观察显示北京房地产新政效果显著。5月第19周（5月6日－12日）北京新房销售面积为周均54%以上，二手住房销售面积更达周均57%，市场明显活跃。高频数据也表示30大中城市5月最新一周新房成交量环比回升15%，但同比下滑42%，二套房市场表现稍弱但同比下滑有所收窄，一线城市基本面承压。

三、研究路径与建议指标

伴随政策工具箱构建，预计更包括资金方支持措施政策叠加出台。当前市场仍处交易活跃期，交易量复苏已恢复周度同比增幅，但同比仍显疲软，复苏背景下的预期调整和现金流管理需配合风险评估和投资结构优化。

作者信息

张淼、李贝贝
研究电话：852-3761 8910
邮箱：Zhangmiao@cmbi.com.hk；bellali@cmbi.com.hk

China Property Sector Update - May 2024

Overview

The Chinese real estate sector analysis points to persistent challenges despite recent policy relaxations. This update reviews the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) data and proposes recommendations for investment considerations, acknowledging the subdued market dynamics and gathered insights from the most recent policy shifts. The context emphasizes cautious optimism regarding the immediate impact of fiscal and monetary adjustments, while highlighting the continuing structural weaknesses in the sector.

Key Findings

1. Investment Trends Persistently Weakening

The real estate investment (REI) indicates a deepening slump in activity across China. During January to April 2024, REI experienced a sharp decline of -9.8% year-on-year (YoY), a worsening from the -9.5% YoY recorded in the first quarter. Underlying this decline are the varying trends observed in different aspects:

• Land Acquisition: Representing one of the primary drag factors, land purchase fell considerably during April, contributing significantly to broader REI weakness.

• Construction Activity: Residential floor area covered by newly started projects narrowed to a -14.0% YoY in April, resulting in a 4M24 new start rate of -24.6% YoY, the lowest since 2009. Projects with signed contracts (GFA under construction) decreased by -20.4% YoY in 4M24, slightly better than the -20.7% YoY of 1Q24.

2. Sales Volume Remains Depressed

Market sentiment continues to lag, with April new home sales volume declining -22.8% YoY from March, contributing to a 4M24 aggregate YoY drop of -20.2%. Sales value fared similarly with a YoY decline of -30.4%, pulling the quarterly total to -28.3% YoY. While average selling prices (ASP) showed a marginal rise of 7% to RMB 10,194 per sq.m. in April, this masked suppressed volume and underwhelming demand.

• High Inventory: Unsold residential inventory accumulated to 746 million sq.m. as of April, representing a 15.7% YoY increase. The inventory months (months of stock) climbed to 31.2, indicating significant supply-demand imbalance.

3. Output Policy Responses

Since April 30, 2024, a series of proactive measures have been introduced, aiming to enhance policy implementation. These include:

• Relaxations in tier-1 cities.

• Lowdown in down payment ratios and mortgage rates.

• A RMB300 billion refinancing facility announced by the People's Bank of China (PBOC) to support delinquent inventory.

• Ongoing monitoring is suggested for the effectiveness of these policy adjustments, as reflected in recovery trends observed in subsequent sales data.

Investment Recommendations

• Preferred Sectors: The report favors property management companies (e.g., CR MixC, Poly Services, Onewo) and real estate agents (Beike). Policing sector allocation should focus on companies showing the ability to efficiently manage properties and aid investors effectively.

• Recommended Developers: CR Land is specifically recommended, signaling confidence in its potential long-term value relative to current challenges.

• Supplementary Actions: Further monitoring of both sales trends and policy transmission channels is encouraged to adjust investment strategies accordingly.

Forward Outlook

The research highlights the government's intention to provide a continuous stream of supplementary measures to target policy gaps. Short-term transaction behaviors have shown responsiveness to policy easing, particularly in the Beijing market.

However, the report advocating a wait-and-see stance regarding the long-term sustainability of current market improvement, underscoring the need for careful observation as part of any strategic asset allocation.