2025-05-28-Jefferies-英富泰（IFT）_2025财年_获取大型数据中心合同的漫长之路_15页_804kb

Infratil Equity Research Report Summary

Overview

• Company: Infratil Ltd., New Zealand-based infrastructure investment firm focusing on digital infrastructure, renewables, and social infrastructure.
• Sector: Listed Equity Research (Australia - Data Centers)
• Rating: BUY (Jefferies)
• Target Price: NZD 13.00 (+22% from current NZD 10.65)
• Outlook: Strong long-term growth driven by digital infrastructure (data centers) and renewable energy investments, despite near-term contract delays.

Key Financial Highlights

1. FY25 Performance:

   • Proportionate Operational EBITDAF: NZD 986.4m (8.6% YoY growth, below consensus but in line with forecasts).
   • CDC: AUS$330m EBITDAF (59% YoY), capacity expanded to 372MW.
   • OneNZ: Mobile ARPU $34.82 (+5%), fixed ARPU $75.44 (+1.9%)—stronger performance than competitors.

2. Investment Targets:

   • CDC: Doubling EBITDA by FY27 (projected AUS$660m, based on FY25).
   • OneNZ: Target EBITDA margin mid-30s by FY26–27.
   • Longroad: Total capacity 6GW (incl. safe-harbour projects), targeting US$110–120m EBITDA in FY26.

Strategic Initiatives & Growth Drivers

• Digital Infrastructure:

  • CDC under discussion for 170MW contracts, delayed due to hyperscaler reconfigurations but expected recovery.
  • $250M committed for CDC expansion by FY25, targeting capacity ~2,082MW pipeline (strong demand drivers PPA prices up 9.8% YoY).

• Renewables:

  • Incentives from IRA, threat of tariffs on Chinese battery imports mitigated.
  • Safety-harbouring strategy, with 6GW capacity already secured under 2028 deadline.

• Telecom (OneNZ):

  • Consumer and Wholesale segments driving growth amid competition, increased ARPU.

Valuation & Risks

Jefferies Valuation:

• DCF Model: Assumes strong terminal growth (4.25%) but sensitive to interest rates.
• EV/EBITDA: 24.5x (YoY improvement from 28.5x).
• Value at NZD13.00, 7% below independent valuation.

Key Risks:

1. Contract Delays: Negotiations for CDC’s 170MW delayed due to hyperscaler uncertainty.
2. Competition: Market rivalry pressures margins, especially in mobile (OneNZ).
3. Longroad Delays: 225MW project delays risk EBITDA guidance (projected 81–120m vs. 110–120m).
4. Policy Changes: Evolving tech and renewable policies, regulatory challenges.

Investment Thesis

• Upside: Doubling CDC EBITDA, strong growth in renewables (Longroad) and telecom.
• Downside: Slight negative risk scenarios reflect delays and competitive pressures.

Analyst Certification

• Roger Samuel, CFA: Confirms independent valuation and compensation independence.
• Lucy Krimmer: Similar certification.

Conclusion

Jefferies maintains a BUY rating on Infratil, citing strong demand in data centers and renewable energy, but cautions on execution risks. CDC and Longroad are key growth drivers, while OneNZ remains a stable performer.