2011年-世界发展银行全球_Does_Financial_Structure_Matter_for_Poverty__Evidence_from_Developing_Countries_27页_1mb

Does Financial Structure Matter for Poverty? Evidence from Developing Countries

Core Content

This paper investigates the relationship between financial structure (bank-based vs. market-based) and poverty in developing countries, focusing on how the quality of institutions influences this relationship. It draws on a sample of 47 developing economies from 1984 to 2008, analyzing the role of financial development and structure in poverty alleviation.

Main Points

1. Financial Development and Poverty

• Theoretical Framework: Financial development can reduce poverty through multiple channels, including access to credit, risk management, and job creation.
• Empirical Evidence: Studies using micro data show a positive correlation between access to finance and poverty reduction. However, macro-level studies are less conclusive.
• Key Findings:
  • Financial development, particularly through bank credit, is associated with poverty reduction.
  • Market indicators (e.g., capitalization and turnover) show less or no significant effect on poverty.
  • Financial development can indirectly reduce poverty by improving economic opportunities and reducing income inequality.

2. Bank-Based vs. Market-Based Financial Systems

• Bank-Based Systems:
  • Better at reducing poverty, especially in countries with weak institutions.
  • Facilitate long-term relationships with firms, reduce transaction costs, and improve resource allocation.
  • Provide better access to credit and help manage risks for poor households.
• Market-Based Systems:
  • May become beneficial for the poor as institutions strengthen.
  • Can promote competition in non-financial sectors, leading to job creation and reduced discrimination.
  • However, they are less effective in environments with high information asymmetry.

3. Institutional Quality as a Moderator

• Institutional Framework: The effectiveness of financial structure in reducing poverty depends heavily on the strength of institutions.
• Legal Institutions: Stronger legal systems that protect property rights and enforce contracts are crucial for financial development.
• Interaction Effect: The paper finds that as institutions improve, the benefits of market-based systems for the poor increase, suggesting a complementary relationship between institutional quality and financial structure.

Key Information

4. Financial Structure Indicators

• Structure-Size: Measures the relative importance of stock markets compared to banks, using three indicators:
  • $ size1 = \frac{\text{stock market capitalization}}{\text{private credit}} $
  • $ size2 = \frac{\text{stock market capitalization}}{\text{bank assets}} $
  • $ size3 = \frac{\text{stock market capitalization}}{\text{bank deposits}} $
• Structure-Activity: Compares stock market activity to banking activity, using:
  • $ act1 = \frac{\text{stock market total value traded}}{\text{private credit}} $
  • $ act2 = \frac{\frac{\text{stock market total value traded}}{GDP}}{\frac{\text{bank loans}}{\text{bank deposits}}} $
• Structure-Efficiency: Compares the efficiency of stock markets and banks, using:
  • $ eff1 = \text{stock market value traded to GDP} \times \text{bank overhead cost to assets} $
  • $ eff2 = \text{stock market value traded to GDP} \times \text{bank net interest margin} $
• Composite Indicators: Four aggregate indicators of financial structure are constructed using the principal component factor method:
  • Composite indicator of structure-size (SS)
  • Composite indicator of structure-activity (SA)
  • Composite indicator of structure-efficiency (SE)
  • Overall measure of financial structure (FS)

5. Financial Development Indicators

• Stock Market Development: Measured by the ratio of stock market capitalization to GDP.
• Banking Sector Development: Measured by the ratio of liquid liabilities to GDP.
• Limitation: These measures focus on the formal financial sector and may not fully capture the informal sector's role, such as microfinance.

6. Control Variables

• Income per capita: Reflects the overall economic development.
• Inflation: Controls for macroeconomic stability.
• Infrastructure: Measured by the total road network length relative to the country's land area.
• Trade openness: Captured by the ratio of exports and imports to GDP.

7. Methodology

• System GMM Estimator: Used to estimate the model, which accounts for endogeneity and allows for the use of internal instruments.
• Instruments: Lagged levels and first differences of the variables are used.
• Tests:
  • Sargan/Hansen test for over-identifying restrictions was not rejected.
  • Serial correlation test showed no second-order serial correlation, validating the model's assumptions.

Conclusion

The paper concludes that financial structure plays a significant role in poverty reduction in developing countries. Bank-based systems are more effective in reducing poverty, especially when institutions are weak. As institutions strengthen, market-based systems can also contribute to poverty alleviation. Therefore, the institutional environment is a key determinant of the effectiveness of financial structure in reducing poverty.