2019年世界白银调查报告（英）-2019.8-105页_1mb

World Silver Survey 2019 Summary

Core Content

The World Silver Survey 2019, produced by the GFMS team at Refinitiv for The Silver Institute, provides a comprehensive overview of the global silver market, including supply, demand, prices, investment trends, and industrial applications. It highlights the dynamics of the physical and financial markets, and offers insights into the role of major players and the impact of economic and policy factors.

Key Sponsors and Contributors

• Coeur Mining, Inc.

  • A diversified silver and gold producer with operations in Mexico, Canada, and the U.S.
  • Key mines: Palmarejo, Silvertip, Rochester, Kensington, and Wharf.
  • Owns the La Preciosa project in Mexico and is active in exploration across North America.

• Fresnillo plc

  • The world's largest primary silver producer and second-largest gold producer in Mexico.
  • Operates seven mines in Mexico and has several development and exploration projects.
  • Produces 65 million ounces of silver per year by 2019.

• Industrias Peñoles, S.A.B. de C.V.

  • A leading Mexican mining group involved in smelting, refining, and producing chemicals.
  • Top producer of refined silver, bismuth, and sodium sulfate in the world.
  • Has a long history in the industry, dating back to 1887.

• Pan American Silver Corp.

  • World's premier silver mining company with large reserves and a diversified portfolio.
  • Acquired Tahoe Resources in 2019, adding the Escobal mine in Guatemala.
  • Produced 24.8 million ounces of silver and 178,900 ounces of gold in 2018.
  • Cash costs for silver production were $3.35 per ounce, and all-in sustaining costs were $10.73 per ounce.

• Wheaton Precious Metals

  • One of the largest precious metals streaming companies globally.
  • Offers investors exposure to silver through streaming agreements.
  • Has 19 operating mines and 9 development projects in its portfolio.

Main Findings

Supply and Demand in 2018

• Global mine production decreased by 2% to 855.7 Moz (26,616 t).

• Scrap supply dropped by 1.6% to 151.3 Moz (4,707 t).

• Total supply was 1,004.3 Moz (31,425 t) in 2018, reflecting a decline in mine output and scrap supply.

• Total physical demand increased by 4% to 1,033.5 Moz (32,146 t), reaching a three-year high.

  • Jewelry and silverware demand rose, contributing significantly to the increase.
  • Coin and bar investment surged by 20%, especially in India.
  • Industrial fabrication declined by 1% to 578.6 Moz (17,997 t), mainly due to a 9% drop in the photovoltaic sector.

Price Trends

• Silver prices (in USD) were $15.71 per ounce in 2018.
• Physical surplus/deficit was -29.2 Moz (908 t) in 2018, indicating a minor shortage.
• ETP inventory build decreased by 20.3 Moz (631 t), the third net decline in the decade.
• Net balance reached a deficit of -80.1 Moz (2,491 t) in 2018.

Investment Trends

• Investment in silver bars and coins saw a strong recovery in 2018.
• OTC market activity increased for the sixth consecutive year, with LBMA loco London volumes accounting for 70% of total.
• Physical bar and coin demand rose by over 20%, driven by strong investment sentiment in India.

Industrial Applications

• Photovoltaic demand fell by 9% to 80.5 Moz (2,504 t), due to reduced silver loadings in solar modules.
• Electronics and electrical sector demand increased for the second consecutive year.
• Brazing alloys and solders demand hit a three-year high.
• Photographic applications demand declined by 4% to 39.3 Moz (1,222 t), now contributing only 4% to total demand.
• Ethylene oxide (EO) demand also weakened, being the largest casualty in the industrial sector.

Methodology

• The survey combines data from publicly available sources, company reports, and extensive interviews with industry participants.
• Physical surplus/deficit is calculated as the difference between supply and measurable demand, excluding opaque OTC investment and commercial bank transactions.
• ETP holdings are considered as part of the identifiable investment, with a net decline in 2018.
• Net balance includes ETP and exchange inventory changes, showing a deficit of -80.1 Moz (2,491 t) in 2018.

Units and Terminology

• All supply and demand data are expressed in million troy ounces (Moz), rounded to one decimal place.
• Identifiable investment includes physical bar and coin investment, plus ETP holdings.
• Physical surplus/deficit excludes OTC investment and commercial bank transactions.
• Net balance is the physical surplus/deficit plus ETP and exchange inventory changes.

Conclusion

The 2019 World Silver Survey outlines a year marked by a modest increase in physical demand, a decline in industrial demand, and a decrease in mine production. The market balance remained relatively stable, with the physical deficit being offset by ETP holdings. The survey also highlights the growing role of investment in the silver market and the importance of the OTC and ETP segments in shaping market dynamics.