20140212-Energie_Steiermark-Analysis_of_Energy_markets_14页_1mb

报告摘要

Energy Markets Summary - Issue 07/14 February 12, 2014

Core Content Overview

This document provides a detailed analysis of energy markets, focusing on power, emission, oil, coal, and gas prices, along with the Euro/US Dollar exchange rate and macroeconomic indicators relevant to the energy sector. It includes technical insights, market trends, and influencing factors across various time frames and products.

Key Market Products and Trends

Power Market (Cal 15, Cal 16, Cal 17)

Cal 15:
- Price: 36.59 €/MWh
- Change: -0.44% from previous close
- Trend: Sustained in a tight range between 36.40 €/MWh and 37 €/MWh
- Technical Outlook:
  - Primary long-term downward trend broken, but no increase in volume or upward momentum
  - Moving Averages still sorted bottom-up, indicating a possible consolidation phase
  - Bollinger Bands narrowing, showing market uncertainty
  - Aroon Up at 88, Aroon Down at 12, indicating an upward trend
- Market Watch:
  - Carbon prices sharply increased, while coal prices weakened
  - Power prices influenced by high share of renewables and coal in generation
  - Market remained sideways, with no clear direction
Cal 16:
- Price: 35.91 €/MWh
- Change: -0.72% from previous close
- Trend: Sideways movement, with a strong correlation to Cal 15
- Technical Outlook:
  - Market still in sideways trend
  - Moving Averages sorted bottom-up
  - Aroon Up at 32, Aroon Down at 72, trend behavior is sideways
- Market Watch:
  - Power prices slightly recovered from recent lows
  - Backwardation situation remains, with a focus on primary trend and high volume
Cal 17:
- Price: 35.74 €/MWh
- Change: -1.08% from previous close
- Trend: Sideways, with strong correlation to Cal 15
- Technical Outlook:
  - Market slides along lower Bollinger Band
  - Aroon difference at -100, indicating a bearish trend
- Market Watch:
  - Mild weather in Europe and lower Chinese demand caused price drops
  - High inventories in China and increased domestic coal production are key factors

Emission Market (EUA Dec 14)

Price: 6.34 €/t
Change: -2.61% from previous close
Trend: Strong upward movement after the EU Parliament's fast-track decision on back-loading
Technical Outlook:
- Moving Averages sorted bottom-down, indicating a lasting upward tendency
- Next resistance at 7 €/t, not exceeded in 2013
Market Watch:
- Back-loading proposal is expected to start in March, likely leading to a consolidation phase
- Final approval from the EU Council is pending

Oil Market (Brent Crude)

Price: 108.68 $/bbl
Change: +0.05% from previous close
Trend: Neutral zone between 105.79 $/bbl and 111.80 $/bbl
Technical Outlook:
- Oil prices unable to break below lower limit of the neutral zone
- Counter reaction bounced at 110 $/bbl resistance
- Technical buying orders triggered after a countermovement
Market Watch:
- Increased demand due to freezing weather in the US
- Speculative net long positions reached a high since August
- Expectations of increased demand supported prices

Coal Market (API2 Coal Cal 15)

Price: 81.52 $/t
Change: -0.11% from previous close
Trend: Sustained downward movement
Technical Outlook:
- Prices slide along the lower Bollinger Band
- Psychological support at 80 $/t
Market Watch:
- Mild weather in Europe and lower Chinese demand caused a drop
- High inventories in China and increased domestic coal production are key factors
- Clean Dark Spreads at 7.63 €/MWh in the German market

Gas Market (NCG Gas)

Price: 24.71 €/MWh
Change: +0.08% from previous close
Trend: Sustained downward movement
Technical Outlook:
- Contract settled at a new low at 24.63 €/MWh
- Expected rebound attempt to 25 €/MWh failed
- Moving Averages act as resistances
Market Watch:
- High supply situation in Europe despite colder temperatures
- High storage levels reduced the necessity for storage
- No supply disruptions expected

Exchange Rate (Euro vs. US Dollar)

Price: 1.3636 €/$
Change: -0.06% from previous close
Trend: Slight upward movement
Technical Outlook:
- Euro still slightly above the firm support at 1.35 €/$
- Moving Averages indicate a deceleration in the tertiary downward trend
Market Watch:
- ECB kept interest rates unchanged
- Weak US job market report increased hopes for slower Fed tapering
- No deflation pressure observed in the euro zone

Macroeconomic Key Data

GDP:
- EU: 2014 estimate (IMF)
- USA: 2014 estimate
Inflation:
- EU: 1.0%
- FRG: 1.4%
- AUT: 1.6%
- USA: 2.6%
Order Receipt:
- FRG: Industry data (Dec 13)
Purchasing Managers Index:
- EU: 57.0 (Jan 14)
- USA: 53.9 (Jan 14)
Consumer Climate Index:
- EU: 8.2 (Feb 14)
- USA: 8.2 (Feb 14)
Industrial Production:
- EU: +0.8% year on year (Nov 13)
- FRG: +1.1% year on year (Nov 13)
Oil Stocks:
- US: Total crude oil inventory 358.1 m. bbl (cw 05/14)
Distillate Stocks:
- US: Gasoline inventories 235.0 m. bbl (cw 05/14)

Influencing Factors

Power Market:
- Carbon prices increased due to EU Parliament decision on back-loading
- Coal prices weakened
- Renewables and coal still dominate power generation
Emission Market:
- EUA Dec 14 rose due to back-loading approval
- Final approval expected by 24th of February
Oil Market:
- Freezing weather in the US increased demand
- Speculative net long positions at high level
Coal Market:
- Mild weather and lower Chinese demand
- High inventories in China
Gas Market:
- High supply and storage levels in Europe
- Forecasted mild temperatures reduce storage necessity
Exchange Rate:
- ECB kept rates unchanged
- US job market report influenced expectations for Fed tapering

Conclusion

The energy markets in early February 2014 showed mixed trends, with power prices in a tight range, carbon prices rising, and oil and coal prices under pressure. Technical indicators suggest a consolidation phase for power and carbon, while gas remains in a downward trend. Macroeconomic data highlights economic growth and inflation rates across key regions, with the Euro showing slight strength against the US Dollar. The document serves as a comprehensive market review, focusing on technical and fundamental analysis for each product.

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