20180822-中国银河国际证券-三生制药-01530.HK-1H2018_results_lower_than_expected.Wait_for_more_visibility.Dowmgrade_to_HOLD_5页_1mb

3SBio [1530.HK] 1H2018 Summary

核心内容

3SBio's first-half 2018 results were lower than expected, primarily due to underperformance in Yisaipu, insulin, and EPIAO. The company is expected to recover in the second half of 2018 and 2019 with the normalization of inventory levels and the launch of prefilled syringe Yisaipu in 2019. However, the insulin business remains a concern due to slower ramp-up progress and competitive pressures. TPIAO is highlighted as a positive growth driver, with strong momentum expected to continue.

主要观点

• Yisaipu Recovery: Sales growth for Yisaipu is expected to recover in 2H2018 and 2019E, with terminal sales reflecting shipment numbers once inventory levels normalize.
• Insulin Business: The company's insulin business, particularly Byetta and Humulin, is facing challenges. The breakeven timeline has been delayed to 2021 due to lack of clarity and slower progress.
• TPIAO Growth: TPIAO is the only positive surprise, delivering 70% YoY revenue growth in 1H2018. It is projected to contribute 33%, 36%, and 38% of total revenue in 2018, 2019, and 2020E respectively.
• Earnings Forecast: The earnings forecast has been revised down by 5.9% for 2018 and 0.6% for 2019E, primarily due to lower growth in Yisaipu, slower insulin ramp-up, and higher selling and R&D expenses.
• Valuation Adjustment: The target multiple has been lowered to 23x 2019E PER (approximately 0.9x PEG) from 30x 2019E PER (1.1x PEG), reflecting market weakness and investor caution.
• Target Price: The target price has been revised from HK$21.9 to HK$15.4, incorporating a 5% RMB depreciation in 2019E.

关键信息

1H2018 Performance

• Revenue: RMB2,174m (up 27.4% YoY)
• COGS: RMB427m (up 71.2% YoY)
• Gross Profit: RMB1,747m (up 19.9% YoY)
• Operating Profit: RMB683m (up 24.5% YoY)
• Net Income: RMB510m (up 30.9% YoY)

Revenue Contributions

• Yisaipu: RMB1,114m (up 25.3% YoY)
• TPIAO: RMB1,511m (up 37.3% YoY)
• EPIAO: RMB726m (up 35.7% YoY)
• SEPO: RMB211m (up 312% YoY)
• Bydureon: RMB15m (up 312% YoY)
• Others: RMB1,400m (up 312% YoY)

Financial Metrics

• EPS (2018E): RMB0.46 (up 25.3% YoY)
• Core Net Profit Margin: 22.9% (down from 25.2% in 2017A)
• Operating Margin: 31.4% (down from 32.1% in 2017A)
• ROE: 14.8% (up from 12.8% in 2017A)
• PER (2019E): 20.9x (down from 26.6x in 2018E)
• PBR (2019E): 3.1x (down from 3.6x in 2018E)
• EV/EBITDA (2019E): 13.2x (down from 16.3x in 2018E)

Balance Sheet

• Cash & Cash Equivalents (2018E): RMB2,594m (down from RMB3,103m in 2017A)
• Inventories (2018E): RMB569m (up from RMB377m in 2017A)
• Trade & Note Receivables (2018E): RMB1,818m (up from RMB1,324m in 2017A)
• Total Assets (2018E): RMB14,148m (up from RMB13,753m in 2017A)
• Total Liabilities (2018E): RMB5,473m (down from RMB6,123m in 2017A)
• Shareholders’ Equity (2018E): RMB8,429m (up from RMB7,397m in 2017A)

Cash Flow

• Operating Cash Flow (2018E): RMB1,215m (up from RMB823m in 2017A)
• Investment Cash Flow (2018E): RMB-531m (down from RMB-440m in 2017A)
• Financing Cash Flow (2018E): RMB-1,193m (down from RMB1,206m in 2017A)
• Net Change in Cash (2018E): RMB-510m (down from RMB1,588m in 2017A)
• Cash at the End of the Year (2018E): RMB1,889m (down from RMB2,399m in 2017A)

Peer Comparison

• Market Cap (2018E): HK$35,510m
• PER (2018E): 26.6x
• PBR (2018E): 3.6x
• ROE (2018E): 14.8%
• EV/EBITDA (2018E): 16.3x

下调评级原因

• 业绩低于预期：1H2018业绩不及预期，尤其是Yisaipu、insulin和EPIAO表现不佳。
• 市场环境变化：整体市场环境偏弱，投资者对PEG高于1倍的估值容忍度下降。
• 执行不确定性：对insulin业务的复苏和Yisaipu的恢复仍需更多数据支持，因此保持谨慎态度。

评级调整条件

• 更多insulin业务数据：若insulin业务能提供更清晰的业绩增长信号。
• 更强的执行表现：若管理层能在Yisaipu恢复和研发进展方面展示更强执行力。

投资者注意

• 免责声明：本报告不适用于任何在法律上禁止或限制其分发、发布的司法管辖区。
• 利益披露：China Galaxy International可能持有相关公司证券，且可能为其提供投资银行服务。
• 分析师认证：分析师观点反映其个人判断，且与公司或其关联方无利益冲突。

总结

3SBio在1H2018业绩低于预期，主要受Yisaipu、insulin和EPIAO拖累。TPIAO成为唯一亮点，预计将持续增长。尽管Yisaipu有望在2H2018和2019E恢复，但insulin业务进展缓慢，导致估值下调。公司目前估值为23x 2019E PER，目标价下调至HK$15.4。分析师将评级下调至HOLD，等待更多关于insulin业务的清晰信号和Yisaipu恢复的执行表现。