世界石油展望2045（2023年版）-英-298页_17mb

2023 World Oil Outlook Summary

Core Content

The 2023 World Oil Outlook (WOO) by OPEC provides a comprehensive analysis of the future of the global oil and energy market, focusing on demand, supply, investment requirements, and the role of technology and policy in shaping the energy landscape up to 2045. It emphasizes the need for balanced energy policies, technological innovation, and international cooperation to ensure a stable and sustainable energy future.

Main Views

1. Energy Demand Trends

• Global primary energy demand is projected to increase by 23% from 291 mboe/d in 2022 to 359 mboe/d in 2045.
• The growth is primarily driven by the non-OECD region, which is expected to grow by 69 mboe/d over the outlook period.
• India alone is projected to account for 28% of non-OECD energy demand growth.
• OECD countries are expected to see a marginal decline in energy demand.

2. Oil Demand Outlook

• Oil demand is expected to reach 116 mb/d by 2045, which is 6 mb/d higher than in the 2022 WOO.
• The Reference Case assumes oil demand will grow by 23% over the outlook period, with non-OECD regions contributing significantly to this growth.
• China and India are set to account for over a third of the global economy in 2045, with India expected to grow at an average rate of 6.1% p.a. and China at 3.8% p.a.

3. Liquids Supply

• The global liquids supply is expected to grow significantly, with OPEC and non-OPEC regions contributing to this expansion.
• Non-OPEC liquids supply is expected to increase by 69 mboe/d over the outlook period, while OPEC is projected to grow by 14.4 mboe/d.
• Upstream investment requirements for the oil sector are estimated at $14 trillion up to 2045, or $610 billion annually.

4. Refining Outlook

• The refining sector is expected to require significant investments to meet future demand.
• Distillation capacity is projected to increase, with secondary capacity also playing a role.
• The refining industry is anticipated to face challenges due to the need for upgrades and new projects to meet demand and reduce emissions.

5. Energy Scenarios

• The WOO explores alternative energy scenarios, including the Advanced Technology Scenario and the Laissez-Faire Scenario.
• The Advanced Technology Scenario highlights the potential for cleaner technologies and emissions reduction.
• The Laissez-Faire Scenario assumes less regulatory intervention, leading to different outcomes in energy demand and supply.

6. Climate Change and Sustainable Development

• The report emphasizes the need to reduce emissions while maintaining energy security and economic growth.
• Technologies such as carbon capture, utilization, and storage (CCUS), direct air capture, clean hydrogen, and the circular carbon economy are highlighted as critical for future energy sustainability.

7. Digital Access and User Experience

• OPEC has introduced two digital interfaces to improve access to the WOO: the OPEC WOO App and the interactive version of the WOO.
• These tools allow users to search, bookmark, compare data, and download specific information, enhancing the user experience and data transparency.

Key Information

Key Assumptions

• Population and demographics: Global population is expected to increase by 1.5 billion from 2022 to 2045, with significant growth in the Middle East & Africa and Other Asia.
• Economic growth: Average global economic growth is projected at 3% p.a. over the forecast period, with India growing at 6.1% p.a.
• Energy policies: The report assumes that already-enacted and announced energy policies will be comprehensively implemented.
• Technology and innovation: The role of innovative technologies in reducing emissions and improving energy efficiency is a central theme.

Regional Highlights

• OECD regions are expected to see moderate growth in energy demand, with OECD Europe projected to decline slightly.
• Non-OECD regions, especially India and China, are the primary drivers of energy and oil demand growth.
• OPEC members are expected to maintain a steady increase in liquids supply, with upstream investments playing a key role in sustaining production.

Investment Requirements

• The oil sector will require $14 trillion in investments up to 2045, with $610 billion per year on average.
• These investments are essential for meeting future demand, upgrading refining capacity, and implementing sustainable technologies.

Energy Scenarios and Implications

• The Reference Case is the most likely scenario, assuming current trends and policies continue.
• The Advanced Technology Scenario suggests a more sustainable and cleaner energy mix.
• The Laissez-Faire Scenario highlights the risks of policy inaction and market instability.

Conclusion

The 2023 World Oil Outlook underscores the importance of balanced energy policies, technological innovation, and international collaboration in ensuring a stable and sustainable energy future. It highlights the growth in energy demand, particularly in non-OECD regions, and the increased investment needs in the oil sector. The report also emphasizes the role of OPEC in promoting market stability and dialogue with other stakeholders to address the complexities of the global energy landscape.