20211115-UNDP-Can_targeted_interventions_mitigate_the_adverse_drivers_of_irregular_migration_and_forced_displacement_45页_550kb

Presentation and Targeted Interventions in Human Mobility: How Can They Mitigate the Adverse Drivers of Irregular Migration and Forced Displacement?

Current migration movements face multiple challenges, including prevention of irregular migration and forced displacement. This paper analyzes the impact of targeted interventions at the sectoral or local level in potential migrants’ origin countries, evaluating strategies to address the complex drivers of migration.

Main Objectives and Key Findings

1. Understanding Drivers of Migration and Forced Displacement

• Migration Context: The existence of diasporas supports emigration through networks and remittances, and restrictive migration policies raise the costs of legal migration.
• Economic Factors: Economic development and income elasticity increase migration intensity (income effect). Poorer individuals face liquidity constraints limiting legal migration capacity.
• Governance, Conflict, and Policy: Governance quality (corruption, political stability) affects migration flows. Conflict, insecurity, and disasters generate forced displacement.
• Gender Discrimination: Gender discrimination reinforces push factors, with women being particularly sensitive to risk from irregular mobility.
• Environment and Climate Change: Climate change has heterogeneous effects, sometimes increasing migration and other times trapping populations.

2. Targeted Interventions to Reduce Irregular Migration and Forced Displacement

Available interventions cover seven main goals:

• Job creation, skills training, poverty reduction, protection against shocks, information enablement, security promotion, and climate change adaptation.
• Studies show mixed evidence on effects (e.g., employment programs may increase emigration in low-income countries), but overall suggest no clear negative impact.

3. Methodological Tools for Impact Assessment

Policy evaluation faces challenges due to selection bias, ethical issues, and heterogeneity in program design. Authors recommend:

• Dashboard of indicators for measuring migration and forced displacement pressures.
• Impact evaluation techniques:
  • RCTs (randomized controlled trials) to ensure unbiased samples.
  • Diff-in-diff (difference-in-differences) when intervention units are not randomized.
  • Bias-adjustment methods to account for differences in emigration rates among beneficiary groups.

4. Conclusion

Targeted interventions at sectoral or local levels may partially reduce the adverse drivers of irregular migration and forced displacement, but clear policy conclusions depend on the specific context. The critical need is further methodological development and rigorous impact evaluation to ensure efficient policy design.