2012年-世界发展银行全球_Priorities_for_Sustainable_Growth___A_Strategy_for_Agriculture_Sector_Development_in_Tajikistan_Technical_Annex_2_Cotton_Sector_in_the_Global_Context_25页_2mb

Summary of the Cotton Sector in the Global Context for Tajikistan

I. Introduction

This document outlines the global context of the cotton sector, offering insights for cotton producers, the private sector, and policymakers in Tajikistan and other transition economies. It emphasizes the importance of understanding global trends and successful models in cotton production and consumption. Key factors influencing competitiveness include input supply efficiency, yield maximization, quality improvement, and diversification. The report highlights that while global price fluctuations are influenced by market fundamentals and technical speculators, Tajikistan's cotton producers lack direct access to hedging markets and must focus on developing competitive advantages through operational efficiency.

II. Cotton in the Global Market

2.1 Production and Consumption

• Global Production Growth: Baled cotton production increased by 24% between 1995 and 2004, with China showing the most significant growth (33%).
• Market Share Shifts: Pakistan and China gained significant market shares (11% and 7%), while India and Uzbekistan saw declines (7% and 32%).
• Consumption Trends: Global cotton consumption rose by 23% during the same period. China experienced the highest increase (84%), while the USA and East Asia/Australia saw declines (42% and 14%), partly due to the Asian currency crisis.
• Surplus and Price Fluctuations: Before 1995, production exceeded consumption, leading to a global surplus and lower prices. From 2001 onwards, consumption began to outpace production, causing price increases. A price drop in 2003 led to further stockpiling.

2.2 Inputs

• Private Sector Involvement: In developed countries, input supply, technical services, and innovation are primarily driven by the private sector.
• Leasing vs. Purchase: Farmers often lease machinery instead of purchasing, allowing them to upgrade without the burden of selling older equipment. Leasing agreements typically include a lien to ensure collateral.
• Contractors: Smaller farms often hire contractors for specialized operations like picking and aerial spraying due to the high cost of equipment and limited time availability for farmers.
• Cooperatives: In small-scale farming regions, farmers may form cooperatives to benefit from economies of scale and collective bargaining, which can also allow them to sell inputs to non-members and reduce unit costs.

2.3 Costs of Production

• Per Hectare Costs: These vary widely, from less than USD 400/ha to USD 4,000/ha in Israel. The world average is USD 1,139/ha, with land rent at USD 241/ha.
• Net Cost Reduction: Sale of seed cotton after ginning can reduce net costs to USD 732/ha.
• Yield Impact: Irrigated cotton yields are significantly higher than rain-fed, which affects per unit costs. Australia has high per hectare costs but low per kg costs due to high yields and efficient ginning.
• Cost Per Kilogram: The cost per kilogram of seed cotton is more indicative of competitiveness than per hectare costs, as yield differentials affect this.

2.4 Land

• Land Tenure: Secure land tenure is crucial for sustainable farming. Farmers with secure rights are more likely to invest in long-term land management.
• Collateral Role: Land is a key asset in rural credit systems, as it represents a farmer’s main income source and can be pledged for financing.
• Challenges in Developing Countries: In many developing and transition economies, land ownership is not well-defined, which hinders both rural finance and sustainable land management.

2.5 Ginning

• Traditional Methods: Ginning methods have not changed much since the 19th century, with a focus on efficiency and outturn rates.
• Ginning Outturn: The percentage of fiber separated from seed (outturn) is critical. Roller ginning is used for long staple cotton, achieving 40–42% outturns, while saw ginning is used for medium staple cotton, achieving 36% on average.
• Quality Loss in Storage: Seed cotton stored at humidity levels above 11% experiences quality degradation, with 13–14% causing significant yellowness. This is less of an issue in developing and transition countries due to better storage practices.
• Hand Picking Advantage: Hand-picked cotton in developing and transition economies has lower foreign matter content, potentially leading to higher ginning outturns. However, this is not always reflected due to outdated ginning equipment and lack of investment.

2.6 Quality Assessment

• International Standards: The USDA and HVI (High Volume Instrumentation) testing are the international benchmarks for cotton quality.
• Classification Systems: Traders in developing and transition economies often use private types based on physical samples, which are less accurate than HVI classifications.
• Quality Certificates: The accuracy and reliability of quality certificates are essential for trade. Confidence in these certificates is key to successful marketing and trade.
• Bale-by-Bale Assessment: To maximize sale prices and ensure consistent quality, cotton should be classified on a bale-by-bale basis, with each bale given an individual ID.

2.7 Finance

2.7.1 Crop Financing

• Overdraft Facilities: In USA and Australia, farmers use overdraft facilities with local banks, pledging movable and immovable assets.
• Interest Payments: Interest is only charged on the amount used, not the full credit limit, which is more favorable than other systems.

2.7.2 Supplier Credits

• Non-Bank Credit: Input suppliers offer non-bank credit to farmers, including the cost of finance in the price.
• Repayment Risk: These credits are not backed by collateral, placing full repayment risk on the supplier.
• Credit Worthiness: Decisions to offer supplier credit depend on the farmer’s creditworthiness and repayment history.

III. Key Takeaways

• Global Trends: Production and consumption are rising, but with uneven distribution and significant shifts in market shares.
• Competitiveness Factors: Input efficiency, yield, quality, and access to markets are crucial for competitiveness.
• Land and Finance: Secure land tenure and efficient financing mechanisms are vital for sustainable and competitive cotton production.
• Ginning and Quality: Efficient ginning and adherence to international quality standards are essential for market access and profitability.
• Recommendations: Transition economies should adopt international classification standards and improve ginning efficiency to enhance competitiveness.