2012年-世界发展银行全球_Priorities_for_Sustainable_Growth___A_Strategy_for_Agriculture_Sector_Development_in_Tajikistan_Technical_Annex_4_Horticulture_Sector_Review_17页_2mb

Summary of the Horticulture Sector Review in Tajikistan

Core Content

The document provides an in-depth analysis of the horticulture sector in Tajikistan, focusing on its production trends, regional distribution, processing capabilities, trade dynamics and the challenges that hinder its development. It highlights the potential for growth and the need for strategic interventions to improve the sector's competitiveness and sustainability.

Main Points

1. Historical Production Trends

• Horticultural Production: Approximately 22% of arable land (170,000 ha) is used for horticultural production, with 85% of it being irrigated.
• Household Involvement: Over 80% of households are involved in horticulture, contributing significantly to food security and income.
• Production Figures (2004 data):
  • Vegetables: 682,000 MT
  • Fruits: 247,000 MT

2. Fruit Production

• Main Categories: Fruits (seed and stone, citrus, subtropical and nuts), melons, and grapes.
• Melon Production:
  • Surpassed other fruits in production despite being grown on smaller land areas.
  • Yields increased by 81% since 1998 due to its annual nature, which is less affected by tree/vine replacement.
• Grapes and Other Fruits:
  • Grapes experienced a 77% decline in production between 1991 and 2003.
  • Other fruits and berries saw a 50% decline, while melons had a 12% overall decline.

3. Vegetable Production

• Potatoes:
  • Production increased by 162% from 1991 to 2003.
  • Yields increased by 29%, while vegetable production fell by 14%.
• Land Use:
  • The household sector dominates vegetable production (70% of land sown).
  • Private farms and households have significantly increased their land use for vegetables and potatoes.
  • Large farms have decreased their land use, likely due to privatization.

4. Processing Sector

• Registered Processors: 40 registered, but only 32 were operational in 2003.
• Capacity:
  • Total capacity: 120,000,000 liters
  • Average capacity: 3.7 million liters
  • Small-scale processing dominates, with most using inefficient Soviet-era equipment.
• Processing Types:
  • Juices, tomato paste, jams, pickles, and dried fruits/vegetables.
  • Majority of processors (77%) are involved in juice production.
  • Tomato processing increased from 48% to 80% of total production between 1990 and 2005.
  • Fruit processing decreased from 48% to 12% in the same period.
• Processing Challenges:
  • Low profitability for processors (some report margins as low as 3%).
  • High raw material costs (up to 90% of total costs).
  • Outdated equipment and poor quality control lead to inefficiencies and low competitiveness.

5. Trade Dynamics

• Export Share:
  • Fresh exports: 20% of total production
  • Processed exports: Over 80% of total production
• Major Export Markets:
  • Russia accounts for over 95% of exports.
  • Exports to Russia declined sharply in 1998 due to the Rouble crisis and have not fully recovered.
• Supply Chain Structure:
  • Most small producers sell through intermediaries or local markets.
  • TajikMatlubot, a co-operative, controls 75% of bazaars and 2,700 shops.
  • Fresh produce is sold at bazaars, with prices often 30-40% lower than other markets due to subsidized transport and increased competition.
  • Processors often purchase from intermediaries or wholesalers, with limited direct relationships with producers.

6. Value Chain Analysis

• Producer Returns:
  • Fresh produce: 12% of retail value
  • Dried produce: 30% of retail value
• Market Dynamics:
  • High supply of fresh produce leads to low producer margins.
  • Processed products have higher value, but are sold at only 50% of fresh market prices.
  • Producers are incentivized to grow varieties suitable for processing to offset lower prices.

7. Key Challenges Facing the Sector

• Fragmented Production:
  • Over 70% of horticultural products are from small farm plots, making it difficult to standardize quality and organize supply chains.
• Low Yields:
  • Yields are falling due to lack of certified seeds, failure to replace trees/vines, insufficient inputs and poor agronomic knowledge.
• Lack of Specialization:
  • Most producers focus on quantity over quality, which is risky in a sector where quality determines success.
• Land Tenure Issues:
  • Land is not securely held, and plots can be revoked by local governments.
  • This discourages investment in both annual and perennial crops.
• Financial Constraints:
  • Limited access to credit due to lack of collateral.
  • Banks are risk-averse and focus on cotton, which has more predictable prices.
  • Short-term credit is available for annual crops but not for long-term investments in perennial crops.

Key Information

• Regional Specialization:
  • Melons are primarily grown in the south (Khatlon Oblast, 70% of national production).
  • Sughd Oblast is more focused on fruits and berries (54% of area in 2003).
  • RRP Oblast contributes 11% to melon production and 22% to fruits and berries.
• Infrastructure and Technology:
  • Processing is dominated by small, inefficient plants.
  • Packaging is outdated, using glass jars instead of modern plasticized containers like TetraPak.
• Market Access:
  • Exports are primarily to Russia, with limited diversification.
  • Trade is increasingly dominated by small traders due to operational difficulties.
• Sector Potential:
  • Tajikistan has the potential to develop a strong and sustainable horticultural sector.
  • Success will depend on specialization in competitive products (price, quality, seasonality) and access to international markets.
  • Strategic investment in processing and trade infrastructure is essential for long-term growth.

Conclusion

The horticulture sector in Tajikistan has shown resilience and growth potential, particularly in the production of potatoes and melons. However, the sector faces significant challenges, including a fragmented production base, outdated processing technologies, poor land tenure security, and limited financial support. Addressing these issues through targeted government policies and support from international financial institutions is crucial for the sector's development and sustainability.