Deutsche_Bank-Macro_Forecasts_monthly_update_PDF_-_2025-02-01-113208459_12页_1mb

报告摘要

Monthly Update Summary - February 2025

Core Content Overview

This document presents macroeconomic forecasts for various regions and countries as of 01 February 2025, covering Real GDP growth, Consumer Price Inflation, Current Account, Fiscal Balance, Exchange Rates, Interest Rates, and Commodity Prices. The forecasts are based on data from national authorities and Deutsche Bank, with blue figures indicating upward revisions and blue/underlined figures indicating downward revisions.

Real GDP Growth and Inflation

Developed Markets

United States: Real GDP growth is expected to slow from 2.9% (2023) to 2.4% (2026F), while inflation is projected to decrease from 4.1% (2023) to 2.0% (2026F).
Japan: Real GDP growth is expected to decline from 1.5% (2023) to 0.9% (2026F), and inflation is projected to fall from 3.3% (2023) to 2.0% (2026F).
Euroland: Real GDP growth is expected to increase from 0.4% (2023) to 1.0% (2026F), while inflation is expected to decrease from 5.4% (2023) to 1.9% (2026F).
Germany: Real GDP growth is expected to rise from -0.3% (2023) to 1.0% (2026F), and inflation is projected to decline from 6.0% (2023) to 2.4% (2026F).
France: Real GDP growth is expected to slow from 1.1% (2023) to 1.0% (2026F), while inflation is projected to decrease from 5.7% (2023) to 1.6% (2026F).
Italy: Real GDP growth is expected to decline from 0.8% (2023) to 0.8% (2026F), and inflation is projected to decrease from 5.9% (2023) to 1.7% (2026F).
Spain: Real GDP growth is expected to decline from 2.7% (2023) to 1.6% (2026F), while inflation is projected to fall from 3.4% (2023) to 1.8% (2026F).
Netherlands: Real GDP growth is expected to rise from 0.1% (2023) to 0.9% (2026F), and inflation is projected to decrease from 4.1% (2023) to 2.1% (2026F).
Belgium: Real GDP growth is expected to decline from 1.3% (2023) to 0.9% (2026F), while inflation is projected to decrease from 2.3% (2023) to 1.9% (2026F).
Austria: Real GDP growth is expected to rise from -0.8% (2023) to 1.0% (2026F), and inflation is projected to decrease from 7.7% (2023) to 2.0% (2026F).
Finland: Real GDP growth is expected to rise from -1.2% (2023) to 0.9% (2026F), while inflation is projected to decrease from 4.3% (2023) to 1.5% (2026F).
Greece: Real GDP growth is expected to decline from 2.3% (2023) to 2.0% (2026F), and inflation is projected to fall from 4.2% (2023) to 2.0% (2026F).
Portugal: Real GDP growth is expected to slow from 2.5% (2023) to 1.5% (2026F), while inflation is projected to decrease from 5.3% (2023) to 1.7% (2026F).
Ireland: Real GDP growth is expected to rise from -5.7% (2023) to 1.9% (2026F), and inflation is projected to decrease from 5.2% (2023) to 1.7% (2026F).

Other Advanced Economies

United Kingdom: Real GDP growth is expected to rise from 0.4% (2023) to 1.4% (2026F), while inflation is projected to decrease from 7.3% (2023) to 2.0% (2026F).
Denmark: Real GDP growth is expected to decline from 2.5% (2023) to 2.0% (2026F), and inflation is projected to decrease from 3.4% (2023) to 2.0% (2026F).
Norway: Real GDP growth is expected to rise from 0.1% (2023) to 1.5% (2026F), while inflation is projected to decrease from 5.5% (2023) to 2.0% (2026F).
Sweden: Real GDP growth is expected to rise from 0.0% (2023) to 2.0% (2026F), and inflation is projected to decrease from 5.9% (2023) to 2.0% (2026F).
Switzerland: Real GDP growth is expected to rise from 0.7% (2023) to 1.8% (2026F), and inflation is projected to decrease from 2.1% (2023) to 0.6% (2026F).
Canada: Real GDP growth is expected to rise from 1.5% (2023) to 2.3% (2026F), while inflation is projected to decrease from 3.9% (2023) to 2.0% (2026F).
Australia: Real GDP growth is expected to rise from 2.1% (2023) to 2.7% (2026F), and inflation is projected to decrease from 5.3% (2023) to 2.5% (2026F).
New Zealand: Real GDP growth is expected to rise from 1.8% (2023) to 2.6% (2026F), and inflation is projected to decrease from 5.7% (2023) to 2.1% (2026F).

Emerging Markets

Asia (ex Japan): Real GDP growth is expected to slow from 5.3% (2023) to 4.9% (2026F), and inflation is projected to decrease from 2.3% (2023) to 2.3% (2026F).
China: Real GDP growth is expected to slow from 5.4% (2023) to 4.6% (2026F), and inflation is projected to increase from 0.2% (2023) to 3.9% (2026F).
Hong Kong: Real GDP growth is expected to slow from 3.3% (2023) to 2.3% (2026F), and inflation is projected to decrease from 2.1% (2023) to 1.7% (2026F).
India: Real GDP growth is expected to slow from 7.7% (2023) to 6.5% (2026F), and inflation is projected to decrease from 5.7% (2023) to 4.1% (2026F).
Indonesia: Real GDP growth is expected to remain stable at 5.0% (2023–2026F), while inflation is projected to decrease from 3.7% (2023) to 2.7% (2026F).
South Korea: Real GDP growth is expected to rise from 1.4% (2023) to 1.9% (2026F), and inflation is projected to decrease from 3.6% (2023) to 1.8% (2026F).
Malaysia: Real GDP growth is expected to rise from 3.6% (2023) to 4.9% (2026F), and inflation is projected to decrease from 2.5% (2023) to 1.9% (2026F).
Philippines: Real GDP growth is expected to rise from 5.5% (2023) to 6.2% (2026F), while inflation is projected to decrease from 6.0% (2023) to 3.5% (2026F).
Singapore: Real GDP growth is expected to slow from 1.1% (2023) to 2.4% (2026F), and inflation is projected to decrease from 4.8% (2023) to 2.2% (2026F).
Sri Lanka: Real GDP growth is expected to slow from -2.3% (2023) to 3.0% (2026F), while inflation is projected to decrease from 20.5% (2023) to 5.0% (2026F).
Taiwan: Real GDP growth is expected to slow from 1.1% (2023) to 2.5% (2026F), and inflation is projected to decrease from 2.5% (2023) to 1.5% (2026F).
Thailand: Real GDP growth is expected to rise from 1.9% (2023) to 2.5% (2026F), while inflation is projected to decrease from 1.3% (2023) to 1.3% (2026F).
Vietnam: Real GDP growth is expected to slow from 5.0% (2023) to 6.2% (2026F), and inflation is projected to increase from 3.3% (2023) to 3.9% (2026F).
EEMEA: Real GDP growth is expected to rise from 2.6% (2023) to 3.5% (2026F), and inflation is projected to decrease from 18.7% (2023) to 8.7% (2026F).
Czech Republic: Real GDP growth is expected to rise from -0.3% (2023) to 1.7% (2026F), and inflation is projected to decrease from 10.7% (2023) to 2.4% (2026F).
Egypt: Real GDP growth is expected to rise from 3.8% (2023) to 4.8% (2026F), while inflation is projected to decrease from 33.8% (2023) to 10.5% (2026F).
Hungary: Real GDP growth is expected to rise from -0.9% (2023) to 2.2% (2026F), and inflation is projected to decrease from 17.6% (2023) to 3.1% (2026F).
Israel: Real GDP growth is expected to rise from 2.0% (2023) to 4.7% (2026F), and inflation is projected to decrease from 4.2% (2023) to 2.5% (2026F).
Poland: Real GDP growth is expected to rise from 0.1% (2023) to 2.7% (2026F), and inflation is projected to decrease from 11.6% (2023) to 2.9% (2026F).
Russia: Real GDP growth is expected to rise from 3.6% (2023) to 1.1% (2026F), and inflation is projected to decrease from 5.9% (2023) to 5.5% (2026F).
Saudi Arabia: Real GDP growth is expected to rise from -0.8% (2023) to 4.8% (2026F), and inflation is projected to decrease from 2.3% (2023) to 2.0% (2026F).
South Africa: Real GDP growth is expected to rise from 0.7% (2023) to 1.5% (2026F), and inflation is projected to decrease from 5.9% (2023) to 4.4% (2026F).
Türkiye: Real GDP growth is expected to slow from 5.1% (2023) to 4.7% (2026F), while inflation is projected to increase from 53.9% (2023) to 23.1% (2026F).
United Arab Emirates: Real GDP growth is expected to rise from 3.6% (2023) to 5.2% (2026F), and inflation is projected to decrease from 1.6% (2023) to 2.0% (2026F).
Latin America (ex Venezuela): Real GDP growth is expected to slow from 2.1% (2023) to 1.8% (2026F), and inflation is projected to increase from 20.6% (2023) to 6.7% (2026F).
Argentina: Real GDP growth is expected to rise from -1.6% (2023) to 1.4% (2026F), while inflation is projected to increase from 133.5% (2023) to 26.1% (2026F).
Brazil: Real GDP growth is expected to slow from 3.2% (2023) to 1.4% (2026F), and inflation is projected to decrease from 4.6% (2023) to 4.8% (2026F).
Chile: Real GDP growth is expected to rise from 0.2% (2023) to 2.4% (2026F), and inflation is projected to decrease from 7.3% (2023) to 3.3% (2026F).
Colombia: Real GDP growth is expected to rise from 0.6% (2023) to 2.9% (2026F), and inflation is projected to decrease from 11.7% (2023) to 3.8% (2026F).
Mexico: Real GDP growth is expected to slow from 3.3% (2023) to 1.8% (2026F), while inflation is projected to decrease from 5.5% (2023) to 3.7% (2026F).
Peru: Real GDP growth is expected to rise from -0.4% (2023) to 3.0% (2026F), and inflation is projected to decrease from 6.3% (2023) to 2.7% (2026F).

Exchange Rates

Exchange rates are reported in USD and EUR against other currencies. For example:

United States: Exchange rate vs. USD is stable.
Japan: Exchange rate vs. USD is expected to rise from 155 to 157.
Euroland: Exchange rate vs. USD is expected to rise from 0.96 to 1.00.
United Kingdom: Exchange rate vs. USD is expected to rise from 0.80 to 0.85.
Norway: Exchange rate vs. USD is expected to rise from 11.29 to 11.50.
Sweden: Exchange rate vs. USD is expected to rise from 11.05 to 11.75.
Switzerland: Exchange rate vs. USD is expected to rise from 0.91 to 0.93.
Canada: Exchange rate vs. USD is expected to rise from 1.45 to 1.48.
Australia: Exchange rate vs. USD is expected to rise from 1.61 to 1.67.
New Zealand: Exchange rate vs. USD is expected to rise from 1.77 to 1.89.
China: Exchange rate vs. USD is expected to rise from 7.25 to 7.50.
Hong Kong: Exchange rate vs. USD is expected to rise from 7.79 to 7.76.
India: Exchange rate vs. USD is expected to rise from 86.6 to 88.0.
Indonesia: Exchange rate vs. USD is expected to rise from 16,305 to 16,500.
South Korea: Exchange rate vs. USD is expected to rise from 1,454 to 1,470.
Malaysia: Exchange rate vs. USD is expected to fall from 4.46 to 4.55.
Philippines: Exchange rate vs. USD is expected to rise from 58.4 to 58.9.
Singapore: Exchange rate vs. USD is expected to rise from 1.36 to 1.39.
Sri Lanka: Exchange rate vs. USD is expected to rise from 298 to 305.
Taiwan: Exchange rate vs. USD is expected to rise from 32.7 to 33.5.
Thailand: Exchange rate vs. USD is expected to rise from 33.8 to 36.0.
Vietnam: Exchange rate vs. USD is expected to rise from 25,082 to 26,000.
Türkiye: Exchange rate vs. USD is expected to rise from 35.8 to 43.0.
Ukraine: Exchange rate vs. USD is expected to rise from 41.7 to 46.0.
Brazil: Exchange rate vs. USD is expected to rise from 5.84 to 6.00.
Chile: Exchange rate vs. USD is expected to fall from 981 to 940.
Colombia: Exchange rate vs. USD is expected to rise from 4,209 to 4,600.
Mexico: Exchange rate vs. USD is expected to rise from 20.3 to 21.0.

Interest Rates

Interest rates are reported for 3M rate, 10Y yield, and Policy rate. For example:

United States: 3M rate is expected to fall from 4.37 to 4.35, while 10Y yield is expected to fall from 4.54 to 4.65.
Japan: 3M rate is expected to fall from 0.62 to 0.45, while 10Y yield is expected to rise from 1.25 to 1.50.
Euroland: Policy rate is expected to fall from 2.75 to 1.50.
United Kingdom: 3M rate is expected to fall from 4.75 to 3.75, while 10Y yield is expected to fall from 4.54 to 4.18.
Canada: 3M rate is expected to rise from 2.86 to 3.30, while 10Y yield is expected to rise from 3.03 to 3.50.
Australia: 3M rate is expected to fall from 4.35 to 3.35, while 10Y yield is expected to fall from 4.35 to 3.75.
New Zealand: 3M rate is expected to fall from 4.25 to 3.00, while 10Y yield is expected to fall from 4.25 to 3.00.
China: 10Y yield is expected to fall from 1.63 to 1.40.
Hong Kong: Policy rate is expected to fall from 4.75 to 4.75.
India: 10Y yield is expected to fall from 6.70 to 5.50.
Indonesia: 10Y yield is expected to fall from 6.99 to 6.75.
South Korea: 10Y yield is expected to fall from 2.86 to 2.80.
Malaysia: 10Y yield is expected to rise from 3.80 to 4.00.
Philippines: 10Y yield is expected to fall from 6.18 to 5.80.
Singapore: 10Y yield is expected to fall from 2.89 to 3.00.
Sri Lanka: Policy rate is expected to fall from 8.50 to 8.00.
Taiwan: Policy rate is expected to remain stable at 2.000.
Thailand: Policy rate is expected to fall from 2.25 to 2.00.
Vietnam: Policy rate is expected to remain stable at 4.50.
Czech Republic: Policy rate is expected to fall from 4.00 to 2.50.
Hungary: Policy rate is expected to fall from 6.50 to 4.75.
Israel: Policy rate is expected to fall from 4.50 to 3.75.
Poland: Policy rate is expected to fall from 5.75 to 4.00.
Romania: Policy rate is expected to fall from 6.50 to 5.50.
Russia: Policy rate is expected to fall from 21.00 to 9.00.
South Africa: Policy rate is expected to fall from 7.50 to 7.50.
Türkiye: Policy rate is expected to fall from 45.00 to 32.50.
Ukraine: Policy rate is expected to fall from 14.50 to 13.50.
Brazil: Policy rate is expected to rise from 13.25 to 15.50.
Chile: Policy rate is expected to remain stable at 5.00.
Colombia: Policy rate is expected to fall from 9.50 to 7.50.
Mexico: Policy rate is expected to fall from 10.00 to 9.00.

Commodity Prices

Commodity prices are reported for Energy, Industrial Metals, Precious Metals, and Bulk Materials. For example:

Energy:
- WTI: Expected to remain stable at 68.00 USD/bbl.
- Brent: Expected to remain stable at 72.00 USD/bbl.
Industrial Metals:
- Aluminium: Expected to rise from 2,550 USD/t to 2,730 USD/t.
- Copper: Expected to rise from 9,250 USD/t to 10,706 USD/t.
- Nickel: Expected to rise from 16,000 USD/t to 17,665 USD/t.
- Zinc: Expected to fall from 2,775 USD/t to 2,660 USD/t.
Precious Metals:
- Gold: Expected to rise from 2,725 USD/oz to 2,998 USD/oz.
- Silver: Expected to rise from 32.4 USD/oz to 35.3 USD/oz.
- Platinum: Expected to rise from 1,150 USD/oz to 1,256 USD/oz.
- Palladium: Expected to rise from 850 USD/oz to 1,151 USD/oz.
Bulk Materials:
- Iron Ore (China CIF): Expected to fall from 105.00 USD/t to 96.35 USD/t.
- Hard Coking Coal: Expected to rise from 212.50 USD/t to 214.12 USD/t.

Key Information

The forecasts are based on data from National Authorities and Deutsche Bank.
Blue figures indicate upward revisions, while blue/underlined figures indicate downward revisions.
The report highlights that forecasts for Bahrain, Kuwait, and Pakistan are taken from the IMF.
The client portal for the first publication of forecasts can be accessed at http://research.db.com.
The report is valid as of 04:00am UK time on the day of publication.
Interest Rates are reported for 3M rate, 10Y yield, and Policy rate, with variations across countries.
Exchange Rates are reported in USD and EUR, with changes in both currencies over the forecast period.
Commodity Prices are reported for various categories, including Energy, Industrial Metals, Precious Metals, and Bulk Materials, with some commodities expected to rise in price and others to fall.