世界发展银行-State-of-Underheating-in-Georgia-and-Estimation-of-Associated-Economic-Costs_135页_2mb

Summary of the State of Underheating in Georgia and Associated Economic Costs

Core Content

This report evaluates the extent of underheating in Georgia and quantifies the economic costs and benefits of implementing energy efficiency (EE) interventions to mitigate it. The study covers residential buildings, educational facilities, health care services, and private businesses, analyzing the causes, effects, and potential solutions to underheating.

Main Findings

Underheating in Georgia

• Causes: Underheating is primarily due to poor thermal insulation (most buildings lack wall and roof insulation), inadequate heating technologies, and high energy costs that make achieving thermal comfort unaffordable for many residents.
• Impact: Underheating leads to significant health and economic consequences. It is particularly harmful to vulnerable groups such as the elderly, disabled, and those who spend long hours at home.
• Health Effects: Cold indoor temperatures are linked to increased mortality and morbidity. The report estimates that underheating contributes to approximately 1,800–2,600 annual cold-related deaths, with EE interventions potentially reducing this by 11–20%.
• Economic Effects: Underheating results in high energy consumption and associated costs. It also leads to increased health care expenditures and reduced productivity due to discomfort and illness.

Energy Efficiency Interventions

• Measures: Key EE interventions include thermal insulation of roofs, attics, and ceilings, and the replacement of single-pane with dual-pane windows.
• Benefits: These interventions can increase indoor temperatures by at least 1°C in winter, reduce energy consumption, and improve thermal comfort.
• Costs: The estimated cost of implementing EE measures in residential and public buildings is US$1.2 billion in present value terms. A more extensive reconstruction program would cost US$3.8 billion.
• Economic Returns: The economic benefits of EE interventions are estimated at US$1.7 billion, with an IRR of 13.8%. This includes health benefits, energy savings, and greenhouse gas (GHG) emission reductions.

Key Economic Benefits

• Energy Savings: EE interventions could save up to 32% of energy in the residential sector.
• Health Benefits:
  • Mortality Reduction: A 1°C increase in indoor temperature could prevent 202–255 cold-related deaths annually.
  • Morbidity Reduction: A 2°C increase could prevent 396–502 cases of death annually. However, the economic value of avoided morbidity is lower than that of avoided mortality.
• GHG Emissions: EE interventions are expected to reduce GHG emissions by decreasing fuel consumption.
• Productivity and Learning: Improved thermal comfort and reduced air pollution can enhance workplace productivity and educational outcomes.

Key Next Steps

• Prioritization of EE Interventions: EE interventions in underheated buildings should be prioritized due to their substantial economic and health benefits.
• Financing Mechanisms: Sustainable financing mechanisms are needed to support EE investments. Options include:
  • Energy Efficiency Funds (EEF)
  • Commercial bank financing
  • Partial credit guarantees
  • Energy Efficiency Revolving Funds (EERF)
  • Super Energy Service Companies (ESCO)

The World Bank is prepared to assist Georgia in selecting and implementing the most appropriate financing mechanism.

Methodology

• Data Collection: Surveys were conducted in residential, educational, and health facilities during the winter of 2018–2019.
• Health Valuation: Two approaches were used to estimate the value of health benefits:
  • Human Capital Approach: Based on lost earnings due to premature death.
  • Value of Statistical Life (VSL): Derived from willingness to pay studies.
• Cost-Benefit Analysis: The report uses both the human capital and VSL approaches to assess the economic viability of EE interventions.

Conclusion

Underheating in Georgia is a widespread issue with serious health and economic consequences. Energy efficiency measures can significantly reduce these impacts, making them economically justified even under conservative assumptions. The implementation of EE interventions is crucial for improving thermal comfort, reducing health risks, and promoting sustainable energy use. A sustainable financing mechanism is essential to support these initiatives and ensure long-term success.