2013年-世界发展银行全球_Georgia_Rising___Sustaining_Rapid_Economic_Growth_114页_1mb

报告摘要

Georgia Rising: Sustaining Rapid Economic Growth

Core Content

This Country Economic Memorandum (CEM) from the World Bank provides an analysis of Georgia's economic growth, productivity, employment, and export trends, with a focus on how to sustain rapid growth for poverty reduction and shared prosperity over the long term.

Main Points

1. Economic Growth and Development Prospects

Growth Record: Georgia experienced strong economic growth averaging 6.1% annually from 2004 to 2012, with GDP per capita rising from $920 (2003) to $3,500 (2012).
Challenges: Despite this growth, real GDP in 2012 was still only 78% of its 1990 level, and Georgia remains one of the lowest income countries in the Europe and Central Asia (ECA) region.
Unemployment and Poverty: Unemployment was around 15% in 2012, and poverty incidence was ~18% in 2011.
Growth Drivers: Growth has been largely driven by capital inflows and nontradable sectors, which poses a challenge for long-term sustainability.

2. Sources of Growth and Productivity

Productivity Growth: Productivity growth in Georgia has been mainly concentrated in nontradable sectors, while export sophistication and quality have stagnated.
TFP Contribution: Total Factor Productivity (TFP) was a key driver of growth, but the productivity spurt from the post-Rose Revolution reforms was one-off and not sustained.
Growth Scenarios: To sustain 5% GDP growth over 2013–17, Georgia needs to combine investment of more than 30% of GDP with TFP growth of more than 3% per year. For the longer term (2013–27), national savings must increase to 27% of GDP by 2017 and 29% by 2027.

3. Savings and Fiscal Framework

Low Savings: National savings have been low, and increasing them is critical for sustaining growth.
Public Savings: Requires a shift in the fiscal framework toward lower current expenditures and higher capital expenditures.
Private Savings: Can be increased by setting sustainable expectations for basic pension benefits, introducing opt-out supplementary savings, and developing capital markets for long-term instruments.

4. Firm-Level Productivity and Constraints

Productivity Constraints: Georgia lacks allocative efficiency and productivity over the firm lifecycle.
Key Reforms: To improve firm productivity, the memorandum suggests:
- Ease of closing businesses to free up unproductive resources.
- Reducing borrowing costs and lari bank spreads by lowering non-performing loans (NPLs), encouraging bank entry, and improving electricity pricing mechanisms.
Electricity Pricing: More transparent and independent regulation is needed to move toward cost-based pricing and reduce retail-wholesale tariff spreads.

5. Employment and Skills Development

Labor Market Challenges: There is a skills mismatch and a large pool of low-productivity workers.
Employment Strategy: To improve productivity and employment, the memorandum recommends:
- Strengthening job matching services to reduce search costs and align workers with suitable jobs.
- Improving vocational education and overall education quality to equip workers with relevant skills.
VET System: Enhancing the vocational education and training (VET) system is crucial for addressing skills gaps in key sectors like apparel and wine.

6. Export Growth and Trade Policy

Export Constraints: Georgia's exports have been limited by overvaluation of the currency, non-tariff barriers, and logistics and transport costs.
Export Sophistication: The export sophistication of Georgia has not kept pace with per capita GDP growth, indicating a need for quality improvements and market diversification.
Trade Reforms: To enhance export performance, the memorandum suggests:
- Trade-related reforms to improve access to European Union and other international markets.
- Investment in trade and logistics infrastructure to match levels of leading middle-income countries.
Sector Insights: Analysis of apparel and wine sectors shows that targeted vocational training and investment promotion can support export growth and employment generation.

Key Information

Currency Equivalence: 1 US$ = 1.6553 GEL (as of July 9, 2013).
Current Account Deficit: Remained above 10% of GDP even after the 2008–09 crisis, indicating external imbalances.
FDI Inflows: Reached 16.5% of GDP in 2007, but declined after the crisis.
International Reserves: Increased from $174 million in 2003 to $2,873 million in 2012.
Exchange Rate: The real effective exchange rate has been overvalued, which has constrained export competitiveness.

Conclusion

To sustain rapid economic growth and achieve shared prosperity, Georgia must implement structural reforms that enhance investment, productivity, and savings. These reforms include:

A fiscal framework that promotes public and private savings.
Business environment improvements to support allocative efficiency and firm-level productivity.
Skills development and education reforms to align the workforce with market demands.
Trade and logistics reforms to enhance export performance and market access.