2015年-世界发展银行全球_An_Evaluation_of_the_2014_Subsidy_Reforms_in_Morocco_and_a_Simulation_of_Further_Reforms_28页_1mb

报告摘要

2014 Subsidy Reforms in Morocco: Evaluation and Simulation of Further Reforms

Core Content

This paper evaluates the 2014 subsidy reforms in Morocco and simulates the impact of their total elimination on household welfare, poverty, and the government budget. The analysis uses the SUBSIM model developed by the World Bank, combining household consumption survey data and input-output tables to estimate both direct and indirect effects of subsidy reforms.

Main Viewpoints

Historical Context: Morocco has a long history of consumer subsidies dating back to 1941, initially introduced to stabilize prices during WWII. Over time, subsidies served various functions, including export promotion, price stabilization, and social protection.
2014 Reforms: These reforms marked a significant step in reducing subsidies, particularly for energy and food products, and were considered a rational and well-balanced approach from a distributional, welfare, and fiscal perspective. They are noted as one of the most comprehensive subsidy reforms in the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) region in recent years.
Impact of Reforms: The 2014 reforms reduced subsidies by almost 2 percentage points of GDP, contributing to a narrowing of the fiscal deficit to 6% of GDP. They partially dismantled the subsidy system, with only flour, sugar, and LPG remaining subsidized as of January 2015.
Further Reforms: The paper simulates the total elimination of subsidies and finds that such a move would be costly for the poor, particularly for LPG. The political economy of further reforms is complex, especially for LPG, due to its role in supporting low-income households.
Compensation Mechanisms: The study suggests that cash compensation could be a viable option to mitigate the negative impact on the poor, though it is not discussed in detail.

Key Information

Subsidized Products and Their Impact

LPG had the highest subsidies, accounting for 66.6% of the unsubsidized price, and cost the government 11.8 bn MAD.
Electricity and flour were also heavily subsidized, with electricity contributing 6.4 bn MAD and flour 2.4 bn MAD.
Households spent over 47 bn MAD on subsidized products, which represented 8.1% of total household expenditure.
The poorest households (Quintile 1) spent 12% of what the richest (Quintile 5) spent on average.

Baseline Data (2014)

Population: 33.3 million, including about 7.1 million families.
Average household size: 4.7 persons, with poorer households being larger.
Total household expenditure: 580.2 bn MAD, equivalent to 17,420 MAD per capita and 81,743 MAD per household.
The first quintile spent about 5,223 MAD per capita and 35,362 MAD per household.

Simulation Results

Direct Effects: The 2014 reforms reduced the cost of subsidies, contributing to fiscal consolidation.
Indirect Effects: Price changes in non-subsidized products had a ripple effect on household consumption and welfare.
Complete Elimination: Simulations suggest that eliminating all subsidies would increase poverty and reduce welfare, especially for low-income households, with LPG being the most sensitive product.

Structure of Reforms

Petroleum Products

Price Indexation System: Introduced in 1995, it linked domestic prices to international quotations.
2013 Reform: A new system was implemented for gasoline, diesel, and fuel oil, capping subsidies and passing the remaining price differential to domestic prices.
2014 Actions: Gasoline and fuel oil subsidies were removed, while diesel subsidies were gradually phased out.
LPG: Continued to be fully subsidized, with a cap on retail prices for low-consumption households.

Sugar and Edible Oil

1996 Liberalization: Introduced a lump-sum subsidy mechanism to encourage cost rationalization.
2000 Liberalization: Edible oil subsidies were fully removed.
2010 Refund Policy: Sugar exports were subject to a refund of allocated subsidies, but the CDC continued to support sugar prices through direct and indirect means.

Wheat and Flour

Subsidy Quota: Limited to 10 million tons per year starting in 1988, reduced to 8.5 million tons by 2013.
Import Subsidies: Applied when international prices exceeded the target price, especially in 2007 due to high wheat prices.
Domestic Protection: High customs duties on imports helped protect local wheat production.

Political Economy Considerations

The political and social costs of continuing subsidies were high, especially with rising global oil prices.
Further reforms are politically sensitive, particularly for LPG, due to its impact on low-income households.
The transition period (2014-2017) was used to gradually phase out subsidies and adjust prices.

Conclusion

The 2014 subsidy reforms were a significant step toward fiscal sustainability and structural reform.
However, complete elimination of subsidies would have negative impacts on the poor and complex political implications.
The study highlights the need for careful policy design and compensation mechanisms to support vulnerable populations during the transition.

References and Annex

The Annex provides a detailed history of the subsidy system in Morocco.
The baseline data and simulation results are based on household budget surveys and macroeconomic indicators.