OECD-拉丁美洲经济展望2018：对发展机构的再思考（英文）-2018.10-256页-5mb

Summary of Latin American Economic Outlook 2018: Rethinking Institutions for Development

Core Content

The Latin American Economic Outlook 2018: Rethinking Institutions for Development is a comprehensive report that analyses the challenges facing Latin America and the Caribbean (LAC) in terms of economic and social development. It emphasizes the growing disconnect between citizens and public institutions, which is undermining trust and the social contract in the region. The report advocates for a rethinking of institutions to foster inclusive growth, enhance public service delivery, and build more reliable, efficient, and forward-looking states.

Main Views

• Weakening Social Contract: Trust in public institutions, particularly governments and the judiciary, has declined significantly, with 75% of Latin Americans expressing little or no confidence in national governments in 2017, compared to 55% in 2010. This decline is linked to dissatisfaction with public services such as health and education, and the lack of good jobs.

• Need for Institutional Reform: To address these challenges, the report calls for a new state-citizens-market nexus, where institutions are restructured to better meet citizens' needs and promote inclusive growth. This involves enhancing the rule of law, improving public administration, and fostering transparency and openness in governance.

• Macro-Economic Outlook: The region is experiencing a modest recovery after years of economic stagnation and a two-year recession (2015-2016). GDP growth was 1.3% in 2017 and is projected to be between 2-2.5% in 2018. However, the outlook remains heterogeneous across countries, with stronger recovery expected in the Southern Cone than in the Andean region and Mexico.

• Global and Domestic Challenges: The report identifies several key challenges, including persistent socio-economic inequalities, low access to education and skills, the prevalence of informal and low-quality jobs, and the impact of global trade dynamics and technological change on the future of work. The "middle-income trap" is also highlighted as a critical issue, with 25% of Latin Americans still in poverty and 65% living in poverty or vulnerability.

• Policy Priorities: The report recommends rethinking institutions to support inclusive growth, improve public finance efficiency, and enhance trade integration. It also stresses the importance of addressing the root causes of the disconnect between citizens and institutions, such as corruption, inefficiency, and lack of responsiveness.

Key Information

Challenges and Trends

• Citizen Dissatisfaction: Trust in institutions is declining, and citizens are increasingly dissatisfied with public services.
• Middle Class Growth: The expansion of the middle class has led to higher expectations for public services and more demand for efficient and transparent governance.
• Economic Recovery: A modest recovery is underway, but it is uneven across the region.
• Socio-Economic Inequalities: Persistent inequalities based on socio-economic background, gender, and geography continue to affect well-being.
• Informal Economy: A significant portion of the population is engaged in informal work, which limits access to social protection and economic opportunities.
• Global Trade and Technology: The region's integration into global trade and the effects of technological change are both opportunities and challenges.

Policy Recommendations

• Institutional Reforms: Strengthen the rule of law, improve public administration, and promote transparency and openness.
• Trade Integration: Remove non-tariff barriers and enhance regional integration to improve trade and value addition.
• Public Finance Efficiency: Improve the efficiency and effectiveness of public spending to support inclusive growth.
• Social Inclusion: Address the needs of vulnerable populations through better social policies and targeted investments.
• Digital Transformation: Leverage technology and data to improve governance and public service delivery.

Supporting Institutions and Collaborations

• The report is a joint publication by the OECD, CAF, and ECLAC, with the European Commission as a key partner.
• It includes contributions from various international organizations, including the World Bank, ILO, and WEF.
• The content was enriched by expert inputs and feedback from a wide range of stakeholders, including governments, research institutions, and civil society organizations.

Methodology and Tools

• The report uses the OECD How's Life? framework for measuring well-being.
• It incorporates data from the Latin America Public Opinion Project (LAPOP) and the World Value Survey (WVS).
• The concept of "tax morale" is explored through surveys and regression analyses.
• The report also highlights the use of big data and digital tools to understand and address socio-economic issues.

Conclusion

The Latin American Economic Outlook 2018 underscores the need for institutional reform to rekindle trust, enhance public service delivery, and foster inclusive growth. It argues that a new social contract must be built between citizens, the state, and the market, driven by more effective and responsive institutions. The report serves as a call to action for policymakers to rethink the role of institutions in the context of a rapidly changing global and domestic environment.