2025-06-11-Jefferies-豪迈集团（HLMA）_Avo的优势持续；预计2026财年其收入占集团收入的17_14页_684kb

Rating and Price Target: Halma plc is rated UNDERPERFORM with an upgraded price target of 2,490p (up from 2,140p), reflecting improved FY25 results and higher revenue growth expectations.

Financial Highlights: Forecasts for FY26F and FY27F EBITA are increased by 4% and 5% respectively, driven by stronger organic revenue growth (+8.2% for FY26F) and better performance from Avo Photonics (projected 20% growth), which is expected to raise its revenue share to 17%. EPS growth is forecast at 7% for FY26F, below the 10% target.

Customer Concentration Risk: The report highlights ongoing concerns about the 17% expected revenue share from a single customer, which could lead to valuation de-rating despite driving revenue growth and improving profitability metrics like ROTIC.

M&A and Growth: M&A activity slowed in FY25 (7 acquisitions, down from prior years), contributing minimally to FY26F revenue growth (+1% top-line benefit), while the non-US/US exposure concern is mitigated by stable growth outside the US.

Valuation: Halma trades at a 120% premium to the sector EV/EBITA (21.6x), down from a peak during ESG-focused movements but still above historical averages.

Recommendations and Risks: Maintain UNDERPERFORM rating due to risks of valuation multiple de-rating, potential slowdown in Photonics growth, and customer diversification concerns as revenue momentum could fade post-peak organic growth.