战略与国际研究中心-Aligning-US-Structures,-Process,-and-Strategy_-A-US_18页_1mb

Summary of "Southeast Asia from the Corner of 18th & K Streets" – Volume III | Issue 23 | December 6, 2012

Core Content

This document outlines the strategic and economic importance of the U.S.-ASEAN relationship, emphasizing the need to institutionalize and elevate U.S. engagement with Southeast Asia through the creation of a U.S.-ASEAN Strategic and Economic Partnership (SEP). It also provides updates on political, economic, and security developments across several Southeast Asian countries, including Myanmar, Indonesia, Thailand, Malaysia, the Philippines, and China's actions in the South China Sea.

Main Views and Key Information

1. U.S.-ASEAN Strategic and Economic Partnership (SEP)

• Purpose: To institutionalize and elevate the U.S.-ASEAN relationship, ensuring coordinated and strategic engagement across government departments.
• Benefits:
  • Build confidence: Signals sustained U.S. focus on ASEAN and the Asia Pacific.
  • Reduce dependency on personalities: Encourages institutional cooperation and long-term engagement.
  • Economic diplomacy: Coordinates trade and economic efforts with the National Security Council (NSC) to ensure alignment with strategic objectives.
  • Interagency coordination: Requires the NSC to lead and elevate collaboration across agencies, including Treasury, Commerce, USTR, and export-supporting bodies.
  • Strengthen ASEAN: Encourages regional investment in ASEAN institutions and supports the ASEAN Charter's integration goals.
  • Address China: Demonstrates U.S. commitment to the region and may counter China's aggressive stance in the South China Sea.
  • Enhance East Asia Summit: Adds depth and substance to regional discussions on security, nuclear non-proliferation, energy, and global health.
  • Use existing structures: Leverages existing ASEAN meetings and forums to create a more strategic and coordinated approach.

2. Key Ministerial Meetings and Channels for the SEP

• ASEAN Regional Forum (ARF): Annual meetings between U.S. Secretary of State and ASEAN foreign ministers.
• ASEAN Defense Ministers Meeting Plus (ADMM+): U.S. Secretary of Defense participates, with plans to make it annual.
• ASEAN Economic Ministers Meeting (AEM): USTR and U.S. Secretary of Commerce should engage more regularly.
• Legislative Council: A U.S.-ASEAN group of legislators to provide feedback and recommendations.
• Eminent Persons Group (EPG): Institutionalized to provide input on issues beyond government interests.
• Youth Leaders Summit: Focuses on providing input and solutions on specific issues for the leaders' summit.

3. Country-Specific Updates

Myanmar

• Copper mine protests: Government raided protesters in northwestern Myanmar, with some injured. The Monywa copper mine, backed by China, faces ongoing opposition due to land confiscations and environmental concerns.
• Nuclear protocol: President Thein Sein announced plans to sign an additional protocol with the IAEA, amid concerns over North Korean materials.
• Rakhine conflict: Government aims to resolve the conflict through education, jobs, and birth control. Rohingya citizenship registration is ongoing, though concerns about forced ethnic designation remain.
• IMF report: Expected 6.25% economic growth for 2012-2013, with recommendations on exchange rate and inflation control.
• Embezzlement repayment: 15 ministries ordered to repay embezzled funds, with most refunds already processed.

Indonesia

• Impeachment threat: Vice President Boediono faces impeachment over his role in the 2008 Bank Century bailout, but unlikely to succeed.
• Chevron case: Four employees charged with graft, highlighting regulatory uncertainty and lack of transparency in the oil sector.
• Wage hike: Employers warn of potential layoffs due to a 44% increase in minimum wage, though the economy remains attractive for investment.
• Rule of Law Index: Indonesia ranks high in government openness and limiting powers, but low in regulatory enforcement and anti-corruption.
• Climate change: Pushes for a new global regime and helps negotiate terms for the REDD+ initiative.

Thailand

• No-confidence vote: Yingluck Shinawatra survived the vote, with opposition accusing her government of corruption and mismanagement.
• Anti-government rally: Failed due to low turnout, leading to the resignation of General Boonlert Kaewprasit.
• Rice deal with China: Agreement to supply rice, though no formal contract was made.
• Education ranking: Ranked 37th globally by Pearson, lagging behind countries like Finland.
• Economic growth: Third-quarter growth of 7.1%, surpassing expectations and signaling a shift toward domestic consumption.

Malaysia

• Elections focus: Prime Minister Najib Razak emphasized the importance of defending parliamentary seats and hinted at December elections.
• MAS stock slump: Stock hit record lows due to delayed aircraft deliveries and competition from AirAsia.
• Education protests: Chinese schools protested the National Education Blueprint, which favors Malay language education.
• FTA approval: Australian Senate approved a free trade agreement with Malaysia, despite concerns over governance and labor standards.

Philippines

• Human rights body: New interagency body to investigate extrajudicial killings, enforced disappearances, and torture.
• Peace talks: Chief negotiator Marvic Leonen appointed to the Supreme Court, raising concerns about the impact on peace negotiations.
• Mining investment targets: Reduced from $10 billion to $3 billion due to a moratorium on new projects.
• Economic growth: Third-quarter growth of 7.1%, surpassing annual targets and showing resilience amid global economic downturn.

South China Sea

• Vietnam-China dispute: Vietnam accused China of cutting seismic cables in disputed waters.
• China's new rule: Authorities in Hainan will board and inspect ships in disputed areas, raising regional tensions.
• Passport map issue: China's inclusion of the nine-dash line in passports caused diplomatic tensions with Vietnam, the Philippines, Taiwan, and India.
• Philippines' four-country meeting: Plans to host a meeting with Vietnam, Brunei, and Malaysia to address South China Sea disputes, reflecting frustration with ASEAN's inaction.

Vietnam

• Anti-corruption and confidence laws: New laws allow annual confidence votes for officials and place the Communist Party in charge of the anti-corruption agency.
• Economic outlook: Prime Minister Nguyen Tan Dung expects inflation to fall and investments to rise.

This document underscores the importance of a unified and strategic U.S. approach to Southeast Asia, highlighting the need for institutional coordination, economic engagement, and a clear signal to China. It also provides a snapshot of regional developments, emphasizing both progress and challenges across key countries.