2025-06-10-花旗集团-吉利德科学公司（GILD）_吉利德科学公司（GILD.O）_每周一次治疗方案的临床搁置；对其他lenacapavir项目无连带影响_10页_257kb

Gilead Sciences (GILD.O) - Citi Research Report Analysis

Key Event:

• On June 10, 2025, Gilead Sciences announced a clinical hold on its phase 2 WONDERS trial for the once-weekly oral HIV treatment combination (GS-1720 + GS-4182/LENACAPAVIR).
• The hold was issued due to observed decreases in CD4+ T-cell count and absolute lymphocyte counts in a subset of trial participants receiving the combination therapy.

Analyst View:

1. Impact on GS-1720/GS-4182: The clinical hold directly impacts the commercial launch timeline for this specific regimen (previously ~2029/2030) due to safety concerns in the combination trial.
2. No Impact on LENACAPAVIR: Importantly, the hold does not affect Gilead's other HIV programs, particularly the development of lenacapavir (both treatment and PrEP). No similar lymphocyte/CD4 effects were reported in ongoing PrEP trials (incl. monthly regimens) or lenacapavir development programs.
3. Minor Setback: Citi Securities considers this a relatively minor setback and maintains its "Buy" rating despite the delay. They believe the broader potential of lenacapavir (PrEP, injectable, oral regimens) offsets this specific issue.
4. Biktarvy 2028 IRA: The analysis considers that the continued development of differentiated regimens like lenacapavir positions Gilead to navigate future potential legislative impacts (like the previously mentioned 2028 IRA).

Valuation:

• Gilead's target price is set at $125.00.
• The valuation is derived from a DCF model projecting free cash flows until 2030 and applying an 8% WACC and 1.5% terminal growth rate.

Risks:

1. HIV Business: Key downward risks include competitive pressure affecting growth in the core HIV franchise and adverse policy changes impacting Eligibility regulations.
2. Clinical Trials: Pipeline risks noted include HIV treatment programs (oncology mentioned) and potential disappointments for existing drug candidates like lenacapavir and Livdelzi.
3. Specific Drug Risks: Downside related to the company's own forecasts and the possibility of achieving the target price includes: lower-than-anticipated growth in the HIV business due to competition or policies; clinical pipeline disappointments; lower expected growth for the HIV PreP market (including lenacapavir); and lower expected growth for newly launched products (the example given is Livdelzi, which is likely related to HIV prevention). Note: The portfolio is diversified, not just dependent on "one or two drugs" despite the wording in the original risk section.

Notice: Gilead Sciences Inc. is our client. Citi Research may receive compensation from them and other factors could potentially influence analyst views, including corporate access arrangements linked by analysts. The report reflects Citi's estimate of fair value (Target Price) and expected total return (13.3%) over the next 12 months, alongside a rating of Buy.