国际货币基金组织-2021年地区经济展望：撒哈拉以南非洲（英文）-2021.4-34页_2mb

Summary of Regional Economic Outlook: Sub-Saharan Africa - Navigating a Long Pandemic

Core Content

The Regional Economic Outlook: Sub-Saharan Africa (REO) for April 2021 outlines the region's continued struggle with the long-term impacts of the COVID-19 pandemic, despite global recovery efforts. The report highlights that the pandemic has had a profound effect on the region's health and economic systems, with limited vaccine access and insufficient fiscal and monetary buffers creating significant challenges for sub-Saharan African countries.

Main Points

• Recent Developments:

  • The region experienced a second wave of the pandemic that was more widespread and severe than the first, with some areas encountering more infectious variants.
  • Global recovery in 2021 is expected to be stronger than anticipated, but sub-Saharan Africa is projected to be the slowest growing region due to slow vaccine rollout and limited policy space.
  • GDP per capita growth is not expected to return to 2019 levels until after 2022, with some countries taking longer to recover.

• Key Risks:

  • Pandemic uncertainty remains high, with the possibility of repeated outbreaks before vaccines are widely available.
  • Vaccine access is uneven, with sub-Saharan Africa lagging behind in both procurement and distribution.
  • Long-term economic scarring is expected, including rising inequality, chronic electricity shortages, and rigid product and labor markets.
  • External financial risks include uncertainty in funding, political instability, and climate-related shocks such as droughts and floods.

• Policies and Recommendations:

  • First priority: Saving lives through expanded health spending and logistical preparation for vaccine rollout.
  • Second priority: Supporting the economy with fiscal and monetary measures, but restoring public balance sheets is critical for long-term stability.
  • Fiscal reforms are needed to create more space for spending, including revenue mobilization, spending efficiency, and debt management.
  • Accelerating diversification is essential to reduce reliance on primary goods and enhance resilience to future shocks.
  • International solidarity is necessary to ensure equitable vaccine distribution and support regional recovery.

• Debt and Financing:

  • 17 countries were in debt distress or at high risk in 2020, with the G20 Debt Service Suspension Initiative (DSSI) providing $1.8 billion in liquidity support and $4.8 billion in potential savings.
  • Low-income countries in the region face $245 billion in additional external funding needs over 2021–25, with the total for all sub-Saharan Africa at $425 billion.
  • The IMF and other international bodies are advocating for more concessional financing and debt restructuring to support the region.
  • A $650 billion Special Drawing Rights (SDR) allocation could provide $23 billion to sub-Saharan African countries to boost liquidity and fight the pandemic.

Key Information

• Growth Projections:

  • Sub-Saharan Africa is expected to grow by 3.4 percent in 2021, up from 3.1 percent in October 2020.
  • Oil exporters are projected to grow by 2.3 percent in 2021, while non-oil resource-intensive countries are expected to grow by 3.5 percent.
  • Diversified non-resource economies are forecast to grow by 4.8 percent in 2021, the highest among all categories.
  • Per capita output is not expected to return to 2019 levels until after 2022, and many countries may not recover to pre-crisis income levels until 2025.

• Global Context:

  • The global economy is expected to grow by 6 percent in 2021, with stronger-than-expected recovery in the second half of 2020.
  • Commodity prices have improved, especially oil prices which rose to $59 per barrel in the first quarter of 2021, up from $41 in 2020.
  • Financial conditions have improved, with sovereign spreads in sub-Saharan Africa dropping by 700 basis points in 2020.
  • Remittance inflows have recovered but remain below 2019 levels, with global travel still subdued.

• Challenges and Opportunities:

  • Tourism-dependent countries face prolonged recovery due to ongoing travel restrictions.
  • Employment fell by 8.5 percent in 2020, and 32 million people were pushed into extreme poverty.
  • Education disruptions have affected future prospects of a generation of students.
  • Digitalization, trade integration, competition, transparency, and climate change mitigation are key reform areas for sustainable growth.

Conclusion

The report underscores that sub-Saharan Africa's recovery is delayed and uncertain, with vaccine access and debt management being central challenges. International cooperation and innovative financing mechanisms are essential to support the region's long-term development and ensure equitable access to vaccines. The IMF and global partners are encouraged to provide further assistance, including concessional financing, debt restructuring, and support for digital and economic reforms.