20220406-马银证券_香港_-每日港股简评_2页_160kb

Market Summary

Core Content

This document provides a comprehensive overview of the current market situation in Hong Kong and related sectors, including China's ADRs policy, China auto OEMs, Macau gaming, China apparel and footwear, and company-specific news. It highlights key market movements, sectoral performance, and upcoming events that could influence investor sentiment.

Main Points

1. Hong Kong Stock Market Performance

• Market Movement: The Hong Kong stock market advanced on Monday, driven by tech stocks, especially those with ADRs (American Depositary Receipts).
• Top Gainers: BiliBili-SW (9626 HK) and Baidu-SW (9888 HK) saw significant gains of 13.3% and 7.7%, respectively.
• Index Performance: The Hang Seng Index rose by 462 points to 22,502, with a thin trading volume of HKD102.8 billion.
• Focus on FOMC Minutes: The market is closely watching the release of the FOMC minutes on 6 April (U.S. time), which may provide clues about potential rate hikes and the Federal Reserve's stance.

2. China ADRs Policy

• Policy Update: The CSRC (China Securities Regulatory Commission) has started a public comment period on revised "Provisions on Strengthening Confidentiality and Archives Administration of Overseas Securities Offering and Listing by Domestic Companies".
• Audit Dispute: This move is seen as a key step in addressing the long-standing audit dispute with the PCAOB (Public Company Accounting Oversight Board), potentially leading to forced de-listing of Chinese ADRs under the HFCAA (Holding Foreign Companies Accountable Act).

3. China Auto OEMs

• 4Q21 Results: Most auto OEMs missed their 4Q21 results due to higher marketing and share-based compensation expenses, and lower sales volumes caused by chip shortages.
• Performance Highlights:
  • BYD Co. (1211 HK): Core earnings matched consensus, though gross margin and photovoltaic business impairment affected performance.
  • Great Wall Motor (2333 HK): Results aligned with consensus forecasts.
  • Geely Auto (175 HK): 2H21 results missed due to increased R&D and opex for Zeekr.
  • GAC (2238 HK): 4Q21 net income exceeded expectations, supported by improved gross profit margins from product mix upgrades.
  • Xpeng-W (9868 HK) and Li Auto-W (2015 HK): Both beat expectations due to lower operating expenses and better margins.

4. Macau Gaming Sector

• GGR Performance: Macau's gross gaming revenue (GGR) in March was MOP3.7 billion, a 58% drop from the previous month, the lowest since October 2020.
• Impact of Pandemic: The decline is attributed to the ongoing spread of COVID-19 in mainland China and tightened travel restrictions.
• License Extensions: All six concessionaries have submitted proposals to extend their gaming licenses by six months to 31 December 2022.
• Valuation: The sector is currently trading at 10.4x 2023E EV/EBITDA. Key stocks: Sands China (1928 HK), Galaxy Ent. (27 HK).

5. China Apparel and Footwear Sector

• Sales Decline: Offline sportswear retail sales have sharply declined since 20 March due to the impact of the pandemic.
• Inventory Pressure: Weak sales and rising inventory levels at warehouses increase the risk of a shorter-than-usual summer full-price selling period.
• Markdown Risk: Some brands have reduced their 2Q22E retail sales targets and are preparing for more severe markdowns.

6. Company News: Ganfeng Lithium (1772 HK)

• Lithium Output Outlook: Expected to produce around 110ktLCE in 2022E (excluding Cauchari-Olaroz) and 160ktLCE in 2023E (including Cauchari-Olaroz).
• Lithium Carbonate Price: Anticipated to correct in 2Q22E and remain in the range of RMB400-500k/t.
• Price Pressure: Expected upward pressure in 2H22E, with lithium tightness likely to persist in 2023E.
• Gross Margin Outlook: GPM is expected to rise in 1H22E, but visibility on 2H22E GPM is limited.
• Policy View: Management believes policy control on lithium prices is not feasible.

Key Information

• Market Sentiment: Positive on tech stocks, particularly those with ADRs, but cautious due to potential U.S. rate hike signals.
• Policy Implications: China's revised ADRs regulations may resolve the audit dispute with the U.S., affecting the de-listing risk for Chinese ADRs.
• Sector Challenges: Auto OEMs and apparel sectors face headwinds from supply chain issues, higher costs, and weak demand.
• Company Outlook: Ganfeng Lithium is optimistic about lithium output and price trends, though uncertain about future gross margins.

Disclaimer

This document is for general information only and is not intended as investment research or recommendation. MIB Securities (HK) Ltd does not verify the accuracy of the information and assumes no liability for reliance on it. Investors are advised to consult their financial advisors before making any investment decisions.