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报告摘要

2013 Medium-Term Renewable Energy Market Report Summary

Core Content

The 2013 Medium-Term Renewable Energy Market Report (MTRMR) by the International Energy Agency (IEA) provides an in-depth analysis of global renewable energy market trends and projections up to 2018. It covers three main sectors: renewable electricity, biofuels for transport, and renewable heating. The report highlights both the progress and challenges in the renewable energy sector, emphasizing the need for long-term policy stability and technological innovation.

Main Points

Global Trends and Projections

Renewable electricity generation saw strong global growth in 2012, despite challenges in some regions.
Global investment in renewable energy fell in 2012 due to policy uncertainties, economic challenges, and reduced incentives.
Renewable energy technologies are becoming more competitive, with cost reductions and increasing deployment.
The report projects that renewable power will help meet global climate change mitigation objectives in terms of both generation and investment levels.

Renewable Electricity

Deployment is spreading globally, with OECD and non-OECD countries both contributing to growth.
OECD countries remain key drivers, but non-OECD countries are increasingly responsible for overall growth.
Biofuels for transport and renewable heat are also growing, though at slower rates than electricity.
The report includes detailed country studies for OECD and non-OECD regions, analyzing market trends, policy frameworks, and investment opportunities.

Challenges

Policy uncertainty is a major barrier to investor confidence, especially in OECD countries.
Integration of variable renewables (e.g., wind and solar) into power grids remains a challenge.
Economic and regulatory turbulence affects market development, requiring long-term policy support.

Opportunities

Emerging economies are driving renewable deployment due to rising energy demand, pollution concerns, and economic development opportunities.
Technological advancements are improving the competitiveness of renewable energy, particularly in terms of cost.
New markets are opening for renewable technologies, offering competitive opportunities.

Key Sectors and Technologies

Renewable Electricity

OECD Americas: Includes analysis of Canada, Chile, Mexico, and the United States.
OECD Asia Oceania: Focuses on Australia, Japan, Korea, and other countries in the region.
OECD Europe: Analyzes Denmark, France, Germany, Ireland, Italy, Spain, Turkey, the UK, and other countries.
Non-OECD Countries: Includes Brazil, China, India, Morocco, South Africa, Thailand, and other regions.

Biofuels for Transport

Global biofuels supply is expected to grow, but at a slower rate than renewable electricity.
Advanced biofuels need to see significant progress to align with low-carbon scenarios.
The report outlines the current and projected biofuels supply and highlights the importance of policy and market support.

Renewable Heating

Renewable heating is the largest part of global final energy use, but it has received less attention.
Bioenergy and solar thermal are key technologies for renewable heating.
The report emphasizes the need for greater investment and policy development in renewable heating to meet climate goals.

Key Technologies

Solar photovoltaics (PV) and solar thermal electricity are expected to see significant growth.
Wind power (both onshore and offshore) is a major contributor to renewable electricity.
Hydropower remains a dominant source, though new capacity additions are slowing.
Geothermal and ocean energy are less developed but show potential.
Bioenergy is important for both electricity and heating, with varying levels of development across regions.

Investment Outlook

New investment in renewable energy is expected to continue, with different trends by region and technology.
The report includes market trends in financing and outlines medium-term enablers and challenges for renewable energy investment.
Financial mechanisms and policy frameworks are critical for supporting renewable energy development.

Conclusion

The report underscores the importance of long-term policy and technological innovation in driving renewable energy deployment.
Despite short-term challenges, the underlying fundamentals of renewable energy remain strong.
The MTRMR 2013 serves as a benchmark for policymakers, investors, and stakeholders in the renewable energy sector, providing crucial insights for decision-making.

Key Figures and Tables

Figure 1: Global renewable electricity production by region.
Figure 2: Number of countries with non-hydro renewable capacity above 100 MW.
Figure 3: Global levelised costs of power generation ranges, Q1 2013.
Figure 4: Changes in power generation by source and region, OECD, 2012–2018.
Figure 5: Global biofuels supply, 2012–2018.
Figure 6: Global advanced biofuel capacity.
Figure 7: Global final energy use of renewable sources for heat.
Figure 8: Global renewable electricity generation, MTRMR 2013 projection versus ETP 2DS.
Figure 9: OECD Americas renewable electricity generation and projection (TWh).
Figure 10: Canada power demand versus GDP growth.
Figure 11: Canada average retail power prices.
Figure 12: Canada power generation by source and renewable share.
Figure 13: Chile power demand versus GDP growth.
Figure 14: Chile average retail power prices.
Figure 15: Chile power generation by source and renewable share.
Figure 16: Mexico power demand versus GDP growth.
Figure 17: Mexico average retail power prices.
Figure 18: Mexico power generation by source and renewable share.
Figure 19: Mexico planned power generation additions under POISE.
Figure 20: Mexico levelised costs of renewable generation versus new-build gas plants and power prices.
Figure 21: US power demand versus GDP growth.
Figure 22: US average retail power prices.
Figure 23: US power generation by source and renewable share.
Figure 24: OECD Asia Oceania renewable electricity generation and projection (TWh).
Figure 25: Australia power versus GDP growth.
Figure 26: Australia average retail demand power prices.
Figure 27: Australia power generation by source and renewable share.
Figure 28: Australia levelised costs of power generation for new plants, 2012.
Figure 29: Japan power demand versus GDP growth.
Figure 30: Japan average retail power prices.
Figure 31: Japan power generation by source and renewable share.
Figure 32: Korea power demand versus GDP growth.
Figure 33: Korea average retail power prices.
Figure 34: Korea power generation by source and renewable share.
Figure 35: OECD Europe renewable electricity generation and projection (TWh).
Figure 36: Denmark power demand versus GDP growth.
Figure 37: Denmark average retail power prices.
Figure 38: Denmark power generation by source and renewable share.
Figure 39: France power demand versus GDP growth.
Figure 40: France average retail power prices.
Figure 41: France power generation by source and renewable share.
Figure 42: Germany power demand versus GDP growth.
Figure 43: Germany average retail power prices.
Figure 44: Germany power generation by source and renewable share.
Figure 45: Ireland power demand versus GDP growth.
Figure 46: Ireland average retail power prices.
Figure 47: Ireland power generation by source and renewable share.
Figure 48: Italy power demand versus GDP growth.
Figure 49: Italy average retail power prices.
Figure 50: Italy power generation by source and renewable share.
Figure 51: Spain power demand versus GDP growth.
Figure 52: Spain average retail power prices.
Figure 53: Spain power generation by source and renewable share.
Figure 54: Turkey power demand versus GDP growth.
Figure 55: Turkey average retail power prices.
Figure 56: Turkey power generation by source and renewable share.
Figure 57: UK power demand versus GDP growth.
Figure 58: UK average retail power prices.
Figure 59: UK power generation by source and renewable share.
Figure 60: UK renewable capacity under development (January 2013).
Figure 61: Non-OECD renewable electricity generation (TWh).
Figure 62: Brazil power demand versus GDP growth.
Figure 63: Brazil average retail power prices.
Figure 64: Brazil power generation by source and renewable share.
Figure 65: China power demand versus GDP growth.
Figure 66: China average retail power prices.
Figure 67: China power generation by source and renewable share.
Figure 68: China renewable energy investment during the 12th FYP, 2011–2015.
Figure 69: India power demand versus GDP growth.
Figure 70: India domestic electricity supply and distribution losses.
Figure 71: India power generation by source and renewable share.
Figure 72: India state-level RPOs, selected years.
Figure 73: Morocco power demand versus GDP growth.
Figure 74: Morocco rural electrification rate.
Figure 75: Morocco power generation by source and renewable share.
Figure 76: South Africa power demand versus GDP growth.
Figure 77: South Africa average retail power prices.
Figure 78: South Africa power generation by source and renewable share.
Figure 79: South Africa awarded renewable capacity under the REIPPP.
Figure 80: South Africa average awarded tender prices under the REIPPP.
Figure 81: Thailand power demand versus GDP growth.
Figure 82: Thailand average retail power prices.
Figure 83: Thailand power generation by source and renewable share.
Figure 84: New investment in renewable energy by region.
Figure 85: New investment in renewable energy by technology.
Figure 86: Global renewable electricity generation.
Figure 87: Number of countries with non-hydro renewable capacity above 100 MW.
Figure 88: Levelised costs of power generation (USD per MWh), Q1 2013.
Figure 89: Bioenergy generation and projection by region.
Figure 90: Geothermal generation and projection by region.
Figure 91: Hydropower generation and projection by region.
Figure 92: Hydropower annual capacity additions (includes pumped storage) by region.
Figure 93: Ocean power generation and projection by region.
Figure 94: Offshore wind generation and projection by region.
Figure 95: Onshore wind annual capacity additions by region.
Figure 96: Onshore wind generation and projection by region.
Figure 97: Typical solar PV system prices, by segment (Jan 2013).
Figure 98: Solar PV annual capacity additions, by region.
Figure 99: Solar PV market segments by country in 2011, as percentage of cumulative capacity.
Figure 100: Solar PV generation and projection by region.
Figure 101: CSP generation and projection by region.
Figure 102: Value and share of global solar PV module and cell exports.
Figure 103: Global biofuels supply, 2012–2018.
Figure 104: Global biofuels supply adjusted for energy content versus oil.
Figure 105: Production costs of biofuels versus oil-based transport fuels.
Figure 106: OECD Americas biofuels supply, 2012–2018.
Figure 107: US gasoline demand versus projected ethanol production and mandated ethanol use.
Figure 108: Development of RIN prices between December 2012 and April 2013.
Figure 109: Non-OECD Americas biofuel production, 2012–2018.
Figure 110: Gasoline versus ethanol retail price in Brazil.
Figure 111: Sugar price versus hydrous price in Brazil.
Figure 112: European biofuel production, 2012–2018.
Figure 113: China and non-OECD Asia biofuel production, 2012–2018.
Figure 114: Current and future advanced biofuel capacity.
Figure 115: Global final energy use of renewable sources for heat.
Figure 116: Global final energy consumption for heat by source.
Figure 117: Share of renewable sources in final consumption of energy for heat in selected OECD countries, 2011.
Figure 118: Global final energy use of renewable sources for heat.
Figure 119: Bioenergy heat production costs versus heating oil and natural gas.
Figure 120: Modern bioenergy use for heat and projection.
Figure 121: Solar thermal heat production costs versus gas and electricity.
Figure 122: Solar thermal use for heat and projection.
Figure 123: Geothermal use for heat and projection.

Key Tables

Table 1: World renewable electricity capacity and projection (GW).
Table 2: World renewable electricity generation and projection (TWh).
Table 3: IEA best-practice policy principles.
Table 4: OECD Americas renewable electricity generation and projection (TWh).
Table 5: Canada main targets and support policies for renewable electricity.
Table 6: Canada renewable electricity capacity and projection (GW).
Table 7: Canada main drivers and challenges to renewable energy deployment.
Table 8: Chile main targets and support policies for renewable electricity.
Table 9: Chile renewable energy capacity and projection (GW).
Table 10: Chile main drivers and challenges to renewable energy deployment.
Table 11: Mexico main targets and support policies for renewable electricity.
Table 12: Mexico renewable electricity capacity and projection (GW).
Table 13: Mexico main drivers and challenges to renewable energy deployment.
Table 14: Top ten US states, 2012 capacity additions (MW).
Table 15: US main targets and support policies for renewable electricity.
Table 16: US renewable electricity capacity and projection (GW).
Table 17: US main drivers and challenges to renewable energy deployment.
Table 18: OECD Asia Oceania renewable electricity generation and projection (TWh).
Table 19: Australia main targets and support policies for renewable electricity.
Table 20: Australia main drivers and challenges to renewable energy deployment.
Table 21: Australia renewable electricity capacity and projection (GW).
Table 22: Japan main targets and support policies for renewable electricity.
Table 23: Japan renewable electricity capacity and projection (GW).
Table 24: Japan main drivers and challenges to renewable energy deployment.
Table 25: Korea main targets and support policies for renewable electricity.
Table 26: Korea main drivers and challenges to renewable energy deployment.
Table 27: Korea renewable electricity capacity and projection (GW).
Table 28: OECD Europe renewable electricity generation (TWh).
Table 29: Denmark main targets and support policies for renewable electricity.
Table 30: Denmark renewable electricity capacity and projection (GW).
Table 31: Denmark main drivers and challenges to renewable energy deployment.
Table 32: France main targets and support policies for renewable electricity.
Table 33: France renewable electricity capacity and projection (GW).
Table 34: France main drivers and challenges to renewable energy deployment.
Table 35: Germany main targets and support policies for renewable electricity.
Table 36: Germany renewable electricity capacity and projection (GW).
Table 37: Germany main drivers and challenges to renewable energy deployment.
Table 38: Ireland main targets and support policies for renewable electricity.
Table 39: Ireland renewable energy capacity and projection.
Table 40: Ireland main drivers and challenges to renewable energy deployment.
Table 41: Italy main targets and support policies for renewable electricity.
Table 42: Italy renewable electricity capacity and projection (GW).
Table 43: Italy main drivers and challenges to renewable energy deployment.
Table 44: Spain main targets and support policies for renewable electricity.
Table 45: Spain renewable electricity capacity and projection (GW).
Table 46: Spain main drivers and challenges to renewable energy deployment.
Table 47: Turkey main targets and support policies for renewable electricity.
Table 48: Turkey renewable electricity capacity and projection (GW).
Table 49: Turkey main drivers and challenges to renewable energy deployment.
Table 50: UK main targets and support policies for renewable electricity.
Table 51: UK renewable electricity capacity and projection (GW).
Table 52: UK main drivers and challenges to renewable energy deployment.
Table 53: Non-OECD renewable electricity generation (TWh).
Table 54: Brazil power generation capacity targets under the PDE 2021 (GW).
Table 55: Brazil main targets and support policies for renewable electricity.
Table 56: Brazil renewable electricity capacity and projection (GW).
Table 57: Brazil main drivers and challenges to renewable energy deployment.
Table 58: China power generation capacity targets under the FYP (GW).
Table 59: China main targets and support policies for renewable electricity.
Table 60: China renewable electricity capacity and projection (GW).
Table 61: China main drivers and challenges to renewable energy deployment.
Table 62: India power generation capacity targets under the FYPs (GW).
Table 63: India main targets and support policies for renewable electricity.
Table 64: India renewable electricity capacity and projection (GW).
Table 65: India main drivers and challenges to renewable energy deployment.
Table 66: Morocco main targets and support policies for renewable electricity.
Table 67: Morocco renewable electricity capacity and projection (GW).
Table 68: Morocco main drivers and challenges to renewable energy deployment.
Table 69: South Africa main targets and support policies for renewable electricity.
Table 70: South Africa renewable electricity capacity and projection.
Table 71: South Africa drivers and challenges to renewable energy deployment.
Table 72: Thailand main targets and support policies for renewable electricity.
Table 73: Thailand renewable electricity capacity and projection.
Table 74: Thailand drivers and challenges to renewable energy deployment.
Table 75: Middle East countries' main targets and support policies for renewable electricity.
Table 76: Renewable technologies, risks, and types of investors.
Table 77: Technology-related financing challenges and potential financial mechanisms.
Table 78: World renewable electricity capacity and projection (GW).
Table 79: Top five countries, projected increase in generation (TWh) over 2012–2018 by technology.
Table 80: Top five countries, projected increase in generation (%) over 2012–2018 by technology.
Table 81: Bioenergy capacity and projection by region (GW).
Table 82: Geothermal capacity and projection by region (GW).
Table 83: Hydropower capacity and projection by region (GW).
Table 84: Ocean power capacity and projection by region (GW).
Table 85: Offshore wind capacity and projection by region (GW).
Table 86: Onshore wind capacity and projection by region (GW).
Table 87: Solar PV capacity and projection by region (GW).
Table 88: CSP capacity and projection by region (GW).
Table 89: World biofuels production, 2012–2018.
Table 90: Global main targets and support policies for liquid biofuels.

Conclusion

The 2013 MTRMR outlines the global trajectory of renewable energy, emphasizing the importance of policy, investment, and technological development. It provides a comprehensive overview of market trends and projections, highlighting both the opportunities and challenges in the renewable energy sector across different regions and technologies.

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