20120630-IEA-Medium-Term_Renewable_Energy_Market_Report_2012_182页_3mb

报告摘要

2012 Medium-Term Renewable Energy Market Report Summary

Core Content

This 2012 Medium-Term Renewable Energy Market Report by the International Energy Agency (IEA) provides an in-depth analysis of global renewable energy developments from 2011 to 2017. It outlines the current market trends, key drivers and challenges, and forecasts for various renewable technologies across different regions.

Main Objectives of the IEA

Promote energy security through collective responses to oil supply disruptions.
Provide authoritative research and analysis on reliable, affordable, and clean energy.
Improve transparency in international energy markets through data collection and analysis.
Support global collaboration on energy technology to secure future energy supplies and reduce environmental impact.
Engage with non-member countries and stakeholders to find solutions to global energy challenges.

Key Member Countries

Australia
Austria
Belgium
Canada
Czech Republic
Denmark
Finland
France
Germany
Greece
Hungary
Ireland
Italy
Japan
Korea (Republic of)
Luxembourg
Netherlands
New Zealand
Norway
Poland
Portugal
Slovak Republic
Spain
Sweden
Switzerland
Turkey

Market Trends and Projections

Global Renewable Electricity Growth

Renewable electricity generation is expected to grow significantly from 2011 to 2017.
Total global renewable electricity generation is projected to increase from 4540 TWh in 2011 to nearly 6400 TWh in 2017, at an annual growth rate of 5.8%.
Non-hydro renewable electricity generation is expected to grow by 1840 TWh, a 60% increase compared to the 2005-11 period.
The average annual growth for non-hydro renewables is 14.3%, slightly slower than the 16.2% growth from 2005-11, but with higher absolute growth.

Regional Breakdown

OECD Americas: The United States is the largest market, with state-level renewable mandates and improving economics driving growth. Other OECD countries in the Americas also show significant expansion.
OECD Asia-Oceania: Japan is highlighted as a key market with specific policy and financial support mechanisms.
OECD Europe: Countries like Germany, France, and the UK are central to the analysis, with policy changes and market reforms playing a crucial role.
Non-OECD Markets: Emerging and developing countries, especially Brazil, China, and India, are expected to drive the majority of renewable growth due to their ambitious policies, growing electricity demand, and rural electrification needs.

Key Technologies and Their Projections

Hydropower

Hydropower is the largest contributor to renewable electricity generation, accounting for 80% of total renewable generation in 2011.
It is projected to grow by an average of 120 TWh per year from 2011 to 2017, reaching 4380 TWh in 2017 and contributing nearly 70% of total renewable output.
Capacity is expected to rise from 1070 GW to 1300 GW.
Non-OECD Asia (mainly China and India) will account for most of the growth, adding 150 GW of capacity. Other regions like Latin America, OECD Europe, and Africa will also see significant additions.

Wind Power

Wind power (onshore and offshore) is expected to be the largest contributor to renewable electricity generation in 2017, at 16.7%.
Onshore wind will account for 90% of this growth, with capacity increasing from 230 GW to over 460 GW.
Offshore wind is a more nascent technology and faces greater deployment challenges, though it is expected to grow from 4 GW in 2011 to 26 GW in 2017.
Leading countries in offshore wind growth include China, the UK, Germany, and France.

Solar Photovoltaics (PV)

Solar PV is projected to contribute 4.9% to renewable electricity generation in 2017.
Generation is expected to grow by 35 TWh per year, reaching 230 GW of capacity.
The growth is supported by improved competitiveness with retail electricity prices and ease of installation, especially in residential and commercial sectors.

Concentrating Solar Power (CSP)

CSP is expected to grow from 2011 to 2017, though at a slower pace compared to other technologies.
It will be deployed in around 15 countries by 2017, with China, the US, and India as key contributors.

Bioenergy

Bioenergy is projected to account for 8.3% of renewable electricity generation in 2017.
Capacity is expected to grow from 70 GW in 2011 to 119 GW in 2017.
The growth is driven by the use of agricultural and municipal waste in dedicated power and co-generation plants.
Key countries include China, the US, Brazil, Austria, and India.

Geothermal and Ocean Power

Geothermal and ocean power are expected to grow more slowly, with geothermal deployed in around 15 countries and ocean power in 11 countries by 2017.

Key Drivers and Challenges

Policy Support: Ambitious policy targets, subsidies, and mandates are crucial for renewable deployment.
Economic Factors: Improved economics and competitiveness with conventional energy sources are major drivers.
Market Uncertainty: The economic crisis and subsidy reductions in some key markets create uncertainty.
Financing: Access to financing and the cost of capital are important factors influencing deployment.
Technology Maturity: As technologies mature, they become more competitive and less reliant on subsidies.
Grid Integration: Challenges in integrating variable renewable sources into the grid remain significant.
Supply Chain Issues: For some technologies, particularly offshore wind, supply chain constraints may limit growth.

Investment and Financial Mechanisms

Investment in renewable electricity capacity is expected to reach 710 GW globally from 2011 to 2017.
China is projected to lead with 270 GW of additions, followed by the US (+56 GW), India (+39 GW), Germany (+32 GW), and Brazil (+32 GW).
Financing mechanisms and policy frameworks are essential for sustaining growth, especially in non-OECD markets.

Conclusion

Renewable electricity generation is set to continue its rapid expansion over the medium term, driven by supportive policies, improving economics, and increased deployment opportunities. Emerging and developing markets outside the OECD are playing a central role in this growth, with their contribution expected to accelerate over the coming years. The report highlights the need for continued data collection, transparency, and collaboration to better understand and manage renewable energy markets.

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