20230712-弘业期货-金属日评_4页_311kb

Metal Market Summary: July 12, 2023

Precious Metals Performance

• Gold (AU2310): +1.0%
• Silver (AG2308): +0.25%

Base Metals Movements

• Copper (CU2308): -0.47% at 67750
• Aluminum (AL2308): +1.9% at 18100
• Lead (PB2308): -0.26%
• Zinc (ZN2308): -0.57%
• Nickel (NI2308): +9.6% at 165090

Overall Market Analysis

• Major market drivers included a sustained US dollar decline for four consecutive days and a rising RMB, contributing to mixed metal performance. China's economic data showed stronger-than-anticipated loan growth and stable M2 money supply, easing but not stimulating market sentiment.
• Global macroeconomic fundamentals are weak, with continued monetary tightening expectations from US and European central banks suppressing commodity prices. Supply and demand dynamics varied: copper and zinc faced weak demand and inventory pressures, while aluminum benefited from short-term support due to low stocks but showed cautious long-term prospects.
• Technical indicators suggest a wait-and-see approach: copper has support at 62500 and resistance at 69000, zinc faces challenge with high inventory and production, and base metals are expected to remain range-bound amid macro uncertainty.
• Precious metals displayed resilience against inflation concerns despite volatility, with gold and silver小幅反弹. Key upcoming events include US CPI data, which could influence market direction.

Analyst Insights and Policy Outlooks

• Analysts emphasize continued policy tightening in the US and likely holding rates high to manage inflation. Global economic talk includes no imminent recession, with a focus on balancing labor markets and price stability. However, policy uncertainty and ongoing supply-demand imbalances could persist.

Disclaimer: This summary is based on public reports and is for informational purposes only. No responsibility is assumed for investments based on this analysis. Full disclaimer as provided in the original report applies.