皮尤-印度的宗教构成（英）-2021.9-48页_2mb

Summary of "Religious Composition of India" by Pew Research Center (September 21, 2021)

Core Content

This report by the Pew Research Center examines the religious composition of India, focusing on how it has evolved since the country's independence in 1947 and the factors influencing these changes. It analyzes trends in fertility, migration, and conversion, and provides data on the distribution of religious groups across Indian states and territories.

Main Findings

• Fertility Decline: All major religious groups in India have experienced significant declines in fertility rates over the past few decades. This has limited substantial changes in the religious composition of the population.

• Current Fertility Rates:

  • Hindu women: 2.1 children
  • Muslim women: 2.6 children
  • Jain women: 1.2 children
  • Christians: 2.2 children

• Religious Composition Trends:

  • Hindus remain the majority, comprising 79.8% of the population in 2011.
  • Muslims have gradually increased their share, from 9.8% in 1951 to 14.2% in 2011.
  • Christians, Sikhs, Buddhists, and Jains have remained relatively stable in their shares, with Christians at around 2-3% and Sikhs at nearly 2%.

• Population Growth:

  • India's population has more than tripled since 1951, reaching over 1.2 billion in 2011.
  • Growth rates have slowed, especially among religious minorities, with the overall population growth rate dropping from 21.6% (1951-61) to 17.7% (2001-11).

• Caste System and Religious Affiliation:

  • Most Indian households belong to historically disadvantaged caste groups, which are eligible for government reservations.
  • Christians are not allowed to identify as Scheduled Castes on the census, which may lead to undercounting.
  • Muslims and Christians are not eligible for most caste-based reservations, which is a point of controversy.

• Migration and Conversion:

  • Migration has had a modest impact on religious composition, with over 99% of the population born in India.
  • Religious conversion and interfaith marriage have had a relatively small effect, with 98% of Indian adults still identifying with the religion they were raised in.

Key Factors Influencing Religious Change

• Fertility: The primary driver of religious demographic changes. As fertility rates decline, the growth of religious groups slows, especially among minorities.
• Education and Economic Development: Higher education levels and economic prosperity are correlated with lower fertility rates.
• Government Policies: India's government has implemented family planning programs to reduce fertility, particularly in areas with high rates.
• Caste System: Caste plays a significant role in social and economic opportunities, affecting religious demographics and access to benefits.

Regional Religious Demographics

• Geographic Stability: The religious distribution across states and territories has remained relatively stable since 1947.
• Major Religious Centers:
  • Hindus: Dominant in most states.
  • Muslims: Majority in Jammu and Kashmir and Lakshadweep.
  • Christians: Concentrated in Kerala and Tamil Nadu.
  • Sikhs: Majority in Punjab.
  • Buddhists and Jains: Predominant in Maharashtra.
• Smaller Religious Groups: Tribal and indigenous religions, such as Sarna and Gond, are significant but have not seen major changes in their shares.

Methodology and Data Sources

• Data Sources:

  • Census Data: From 1951 to 2011, providing population and religious composition statistics.
  • National Family Health Survey (NFHS): Offers detailed fertility data and insights into how religion interacts with family planning.
  • Migration Data: From the United Nations and Pew Research Center surveys.
  • Conversion and Interfaith Marriage: From Pew Research Center's 2019-2020 survey of 29,999 Indian adults.

• Citations and Acknowledgments:

  • The report is part of the Pew-Templeton Global Religious Futures project.
  • It acknowledges contributions from scholars and researchers at various institutions.

Conclusion

The religious composition of India has remained largely stable since the Partition of 1947, with only modest shifts in the shares of major religious groups. Fertility decline, particularly among minorities, has played a central role in this stability. While migration and conversion have had some impact, they are not as significant as fertility trends. The report highlights the complex interplay between religion, caste, and socioeconomic factors in shaping India's demographic landscape.