2016年-世界发展银行全球_MENA_Export_Performance_and_Specialization___The_Role_of_Financial_Sector_Development_and_Governance_32页_739kb

Summary of "MENA Export Performance and Specialization: The Role of Financial Sector Development and Governance"

Core Content

This paper investigates the relationship between financial sector development (FSD), governance, and export performance in the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) region. It argues that the underperformance and lack of diversification in MENA exports are linked to the region's financial and governance characteristics, which affect the ability of firms to export high value-added goods.

Main Points

1. Export Performance in MENA

• Export-to-GDP ratio: Declined over time, with MENA accounting for only 1.8% of global exports by 2008.
• Export dynamics: MENA countries export fewer products and to fewer destinations than other regions.
• Export composition: Concentrated in low value-added, labor-intensive sectors such as food products.
• Constraints on exports: Firms report significant regulatory and financial constraints, with 25.9% citing business licensing and permits as a major barrier.

2. Financial Sector Development in MENA

• Financial inclusion: Low, with only 12.1% of MENA firms having a loan or line of credit.
• Loan concentration: High, favoring large firms and excluding small and young enterprises.
• External financing: Limited, with only 5.9% of investments and 4.4% of working capital in MENA being externally financed.
• Collateral requirements: High, with 75.2% of loans requiring collateral, mostly based on tangible assets.
• Islamic financing: Common in MENA, which is more relationship-based and less market-oriented than in other regions.

3. Governance in MENA

• Governance quality: Poor, with low scores on the World Governance Indicator (WGI).
• Impact on growth: Weak governance is estimated to have slowed MENA's GDP growth by 1 to 1.5 percentage points.
• Voice and Accountability: The lowest in the MENA region, indicating limited citizen engagement and institutional oversight.
• Foreign Direct Investment (FDI): Not a driver of job creation in MENA, and has skewed toward low productivity sectors.

4. Theoretical Framework

• Hecksher-Ohlin-Vanek framework: Predicts that countries will specialize in goods intensive in their abundant factors.
• Financial sector development and trade specialization: Countries with more developed financial sectors tend to export more from sectors reliant on external finance.
• Asset tangibility and trade specialization: Higher asset tangibility facilitates collateralization and liquidity, thus increasing exports from such sectors.
• Governance and asset tangibility: Stronger governance reduces the need for collateral, thereby decreasing exports from asset-tangible sectors.

Key Findings

• FSD and governance influence export specialization: Countries with more developed financial sectors and stronger governance have higher exports from finance-dependent sectors and lower exports from asset-tangible sectors.
• MENA underperformance: Financial sector development boosts exports less in MENA than in non-MENA countries.
• Policy implications: To promote higher value exports, MENA needs deeper financial sector development and stronger legal and governance frameworks.

Data and Methodology

• Data sources:
  • BACI International Trade Database: Provides export data by country and sector (1995–2009).
  • World Bank's Export Dynamics Database (EDD): Offers micro-level firm data on export value, number of products, and destinations (2005–2010).
• Estimation approach: Uses a country-sector interaction model (Eq. 2) to analyze how financial and governance factors affect export shares and specialization.

Conclusion

• Need for policy reform: Strengthening financial systems and governance is critical for enabling export growth in high value-added sectors.
• Strategic location: MENA has potential for trade but faces structural and institutional challenges.
• Inclusive growth: Exporting more high value-added goods could lead to faster and more inclusive economic growth.

Key Indicators and Comparisons

• Financial sector development:

  • Private credit to GDP ratio: 49.25 in MENA vs. 117.2 in high-income countries.
  • Checking/savings accounts: 59.3% in MENA vs. 87.7% in Eastern Asia and Pacific (EAP).
  • Loan availability: 12.1% in MENA vs. 47.6% in Latin America and Caribbean (LAC).

• Governance:

  • Voice and Accountability (WGI): Lowest in MENA.
  • Property rights index: Higher than non-MENA but lower than high-income countries.
  • Global Competitiveness Index (GCI): MENA countries score lower than other regions, especially in governance-related aspects.

• Export statistics:

  • Average number of exporters: 5,552 in MENA vs. 13,258 in non-MENA.
  • Mean export value per exporter: $1,321,472 in MENA vs. $2,413,509 in non-MENA.
  • Median export value per exporter: $59,289 in MENA vs. $40,625 in non-MENA.
  • Number of products per exporter: 5.3 in MENA vs. 6.6 in non-MENA.
  • Number of destinations per exporter: 2.6 in MENA vs. 2.93 in non-MENA.

Policy Recommendations

1. Deepen financial sector development: Strengthen market-based systems such as asset registries and credit reporting agencies.
2. Improve governance: Enhance legal and institutional frameworks to support trade and investment.
3. Promote high value-added exports: Encourage investment in sectors with higher intangible assets and innovation potential.

This paper contributes to the ongoing policy discussions on financial sector development and governance in the MENA region, emphasizing the need for institutional reforms to support more inclusive and sustainable export growth.