20160229-中国银河国际证券-China_Cement_Weekly_12页_1mb
报告摘要
China Cement Sector Summary - February 29, 2016
Core Content
The Chinese cement sector continued to experience a slow recovery in market demand and ongoing price pressures, with a focus on regional performance and financial metrics. Key data points and trends from the sector are summarized below.
Market Demand and Prices
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Cement Prices:
- The average cement price nationwide dropped 0.31% week-on-week to RMB239.33/tonne.
- Prices in parts of Anhui, Jiangsu, Fujian, and Hubei fell by RMB10-20/tonne.
- Daily volume in Guangxi and Guangdong returned to 70%-80% of normal levels.
- Shipment volume in the Yangtze River Delta recovered only 30%-40%.
- Other regions remained at 20%-30% of normal shipment volume.
-
Inventory Levels:
- National cement inventory levels declined slightly to 73.78% during the Chinese New Year (CNY).
- Inventory levels in eastern China improved in the past two weeks, but some companies continued to slash prices in hopes of boosting sales.
-
Price Trends:
- Prices of bulk cement are expected to face mild downward pressure as production recovers.
- Cement prices have been at a historical low of around RMB250/tonne since 2H2015.
Financial Performance
-
Loss-Making Companies:
- 35% of the total 3,392 companies recorded losses in December.
- 1,181 cement producers had a net loss in December.
- Loss-making areas are mainly concentrated in northern China.
- At least 70% of producers in Tianjin, Jiangxi, Shandong, Hunan, the Pearl River Delta, and the Yangtze River Delta remain profitable.
-
Cost Pressure:
- Coal prices rose slightly to RMB381/tonne, up RMB1/tonne from the previous week.
- Coal prices were 24.1% lower year-on-year (YoY).
- As coal prices stabilize, there is little room for further cost-driven price cuts.
Stock Performance
- Stocks under Coverage:
- Cement stocks dropped 3.6% last week.
- There was profit-taking after a 17.7% rebound the previous week.
- CR Cement was the best performer, dropping 1.5% to HK$2.03.
- Anhui Conch was the weakest, dropping 7.9%.
Valuation Table
| Company | Ticker | Rating | Price (HK$) | Market Cap (US$m) | PER (2014) | PER (2015E) | PER (2016E) | PBR (2014) | PBR (2015E) | PBR (2016E) | EV/EBITDA (2014) | EV/EBITDA (2015E) | EV/EBITDA (2016E) | Net Debt/Equity (%) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Anhui Conch | 914 HK Equity | HOLD | 15.58 | 10,900 | 5.9 | 11.4 | 13.1 | 1.04 | 0.98 | 0.93 | 4.1 | 6.1 | 6.1 | 9 |
| CNBM | 3323 HK Equity | SELL | 3.48 | 2,409 | 2.7 | 19.1 | 17.9 | 0.38 | 0.38 | 0.37 | 7.3 | 10.0 | 10.7 | 249 |
| BBMG | 2009 HK Equity | BUY | 4.37 | 5,711 | 8.6 | 8.9 | 6.2 | 0.53 | 0.53 | 0.50 | 7.8 | 8.0 | 6.4 | 65 |
| CR Cement | 1313 HK Equity | HOLD | 2.03 | 1,700 | 3.1 | 6.4 | 10.0 | 0.47 | 0.49 | 0.48 | 3.9 | 6.7 | 6.6 | 56 |
| Shanshui Cement | 691 HK Equity | SELL | 6.29 | 2,725 | 45.9 | 42.2 | 34.7 | 1.58 | 1.52 | 1.47 | 10.6 | 10.3 | 9.4 | 134 |
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Simple Average:
- PER: 13.2, 17.6, 16.4
- PBR: 0.80, 0.78, 0.75
- EV/EBITDA: 6.7, 8.2, 7.8
- Net Debt/Equity: 103
-
Weighted Average:
- PER: 10.7, 14.8, 14.2
- PBR: 0.87, 0.83, 0.80
- EV/EBITDA: 6.1, 7.5, 7.1
- Net Debt/Equity: 65
EPS and ROE
| Company | Ticker | EPS Growth (%) | ROE (%) | Dividend Yield (%) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Anhui Conch | 914 HK Equity | (45.4), (8.3) | 18.2 | 2.8, 5.3, 3.2 |
| CNBM | 3323 HK Equity | (85.2), 12.4 | 17.5 | 5.8, 6.0, 1.0 |
| CR Cement | 1313 HK Equity | (49.6), (35.6) | 14.1 | 5.2, 8.4, 3.0 |
| BBMG | 2009 HK Equity | 1.3, 46.8 | 6.8 | 1.8, 1.5, 1.9 |
| Shanshui Cement | 691 HK Equity | 10.4, 21.8 | 3.7 | 0.5, 0.6, 0.6 |
| Simple Average | - | (33.7), 7.4 | 12.1 | 3.1, 4.3, 1.9 |
| Weighted Average | - | (31.9), 8.8 | 13.4 | 2.7, 4.1, 2.4 |
Peer Comparison
| Company | Ticker | Rating | Market Cap (US$m) | PER (2014) | PER (2015E) | PER (2016E) | PBR (2014) | PBR (2015E) | PBR (2016E) | EV/EBITDA (2014) | EV/EBITDA (2015E) | EV/EBITDA (2016E) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Anhui Conch | 914 HK Equity | HOLD | 10,900 | 5.9 | 11.4 | 13.1 | 1.04 | 0.98 | 0.93 | 4.1 | 6.1 | 6.1 |
| CNBM | 3323 HK Equity | SELL | 2,409 | 2.7 | 19.1 | 17.9 | 0.38 | 0.38 | 0.37 | 7.3 | 10.0 | 10.7 |
| BBMG | 2009 HK Equity | BUY | 5,711 | 8.6 | 8.9 | 6.2 | 0.53 | 0.53 | 0.50 | 7.8 | 8.0 | 6.4 |
| CR Cement | 1313 HK Equity | HOLD | 1,700 | 3.1 | 6.4 | 10.0 | 0.47 | 0.49 | 0.48 | 3.9 | 6.7 | 6.6 |
| Shanshui Cement | 691 HK Equity | SELL | 2,725 | 45.9 | 42.2 | 34.7 | 1.58 | 1.52 | 1.47 | 10.6 | 10.3 | 9.4 |
| TCC International | 1136 HK Equity | NR | 742 | 3.9 | 58.5 | 24.9 | 0.23 | 0.28 | 0.28 | 3.7 | 11.5 | 11.5 |
| China National Materials | 1893 HK Equity | NR | 614 | 6.9 | 9.3 | 9.2 | 0.27 | 0.28 | 0.27 | 6.2 | 7.5 | 7.5 |
| Asia Cement | 743 HK Equity | NR | 313 | - | 52.5 | - | 0.22 | 0.22 | 0.22 | 3.8 | 6.8 | 6.8 |
| West China Cement | 2233 HK Equity | NR | 1,147 | - | 99.2 | 20.7 | 1.22 | 1.22 | 1.24 | 8.6 | 11.0 | 11.0 |
| Tianrui Cement | 1252 HK Equity | NR | 600 | 8.2 | n.a. | n.a. | 0.55 | n.a. | n.a. | 7.0 | n.a. | n.a. |
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Simple Average:
- PER: 8.5, 34.2, 15.2
- PBR: 0.65, 0.66, 0.64
- EV/EBITDA: 6.3, 8.7, 7.6
-
Weighted Average:
- PER: 9.8, 19.6, 14.2
- PBR: 0.84, 0.80, 0.77
- EV/EBITDA: 6.1, 7.6, 7.6
Regional Performance
-
East China:
- Anhui: Cement price dropped 36.7% in 2015, with 5.1% in 2016.
- Jiangsu: Cement price dropped 1.9% in 2015, with 5.8% in 2016.
- Zhejiang: Cement price dropped 1.6% in 2015, with 11.4% in 2016.
- Shanghai: Cement price dropped 0.0% in 2015, with 0.0% in 2016.
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South Central China:
- Guangdong: Cement price dropped 7.5% in 2015, with 0.0% in 2016.
- Guangxi: Cement price dropped 8.2% in 2015, with 2.0% in 2016.
- Hunan: Cement price dropped 10.7% in 2015, with 7.3% in 2016.
- Hubei: Cement price dropped 0.0% in 2015, with 0.0% in 2016.
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North China:
- Tianjin: Cement price dropped 0.0% in 2015, with 0.0% in 2016.
- Hebei: Cement price dropped 0.0% in 2015, with 0.9% in 2016.
- Shanxi: Cement price dropped 0.0% in 2015, with 0.8% in 2016.
- Inner Mongolia: Cement price dropped 0.0% in 2015, with 3.3% in 2016.
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Northeast China:
- Heilongjiang: Cement price dropped 0.0% in 2015, with 4.1% in 2016.
- Jilin: Cement price dropped 0.0% in 2015, with 2.1% in 2016.
- Liaoning: Cement price dropped 0.0% in 2015, with 0.8% in 2016.
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Southwest China:
- Chongqing: Cement price dropped 3.2% in 2015, with 3.3% in 2016.
- Sichuan: Cement price dropped 4.4% in 2015, with 12.6% in 2016.
- Guizhou: Cement price dropped 9.6% in 2015, with 8.8% in 2016.
- Yunnan: Cement price dropped 3.0% in 2015, with 6.6% in 2016.
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Northwest China:
- Gansu: Cement price dropped 3.2% in 2015, with 0.0% in 2016.
- Shaanxi: Cement price dropped 5.1% in 2015, with 0.0% in 2016.
- Qinghai: Cement price dropped 0.0% in 2015, with 0.0% in 2016.
- Ningxia: Cement price dropped 0.0% in 2015, with 0.0% in 2016.
- Xinjiang: Cement price dropped 0.4% in 2015, with 0.0% in 2016.
Market Share in Terms of Clinker Capacity (2015)
| Region | Anhui Conch | CNBM | CR Cement | Shanshui | BBMG | TCCI | Asia Cement | WCC | Sinoma Group | Jidong | Huaxin |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| East China | 53.0% | 11.3% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 6.3% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| South Central China | 16.2% | 0.0% | 16.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 13.3% | 0.0% | 3.4% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 1.7% |
| North China | 0.0% | 5.0% | 23.1% | 92.9% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 7.0% | 60.3% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Northeast China | 0.0% | 7.1% | 19.9% | 2.4% | 3.4% | 5.6% | 0.0% | 2.9% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Southwest China | 20.2% | 31.3% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 7.3% | 0.0% | 20.6% | 0.0% |
| Northwest China | 8.7% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 2.6% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Grand Total | 100.0% | 100.0% | 100.0% | 100.0% | 100.0% | 100.0% | 100.0% | 100.0% | 100.0% | 100.0% | 100.0% |
Key Viewpoints
- Cement prices have been under pressure, with some companies slashing prices to increase sales volume.
- Market demand has been slow to recover, with shipment volumes still below normal in most regions.
- Coal prices are rising, which limits further price cuts driven by costs.
- Profitability is uneven across regions, with northern China showing the most loss-making companies.
- Anhui Conch and CR Cement are trading below book value, indicating potential for rebound if supply-side reform measures are announced.
- Stock performance has been mixed, with Anhui Conch being the weakest performer and CR Cement the best.
Key Information
- Cement prices have been at a historical low since 2H2015.
- Loss-making companies increased by 37.6% YoY.
- Anhui Conch is the largest regional player in Anhui.
- CR Cement is the best performer in the cement sector.
- TCCI and Asia Cement are trading at discounted valuations.
- Market share is dominated by Anhui Conch and CNBM in East China.
- Shanshui Cement has the largest market share in South Central China.
- Sinoma Group has a significant market share in North China.
- TCCI has a large market share in Northwest China.
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