2022-04-08-莱坊-Perth_CBD_Office_Market_March_2022_8页_3mb

报告摘要

Perth CBD Office Market Summary (March 2022)

Core Content

The Perth CBD office market experienced a significant surge in demand and a sharp decline in vacancy in 2021, driven by strong economic conditions and robust employment growth in Western Australia. The market is expected to continue its positive trajectory in 2022 and beyond, with further declines in vacancy and increases in face rents.

Key Insights

Vacancy Rate Decline: The vacancy rate in the Perth CBD dropped from 16.8% in July 2021 to 15.0% in January 2022.
- Prime Market: Declined by 1.6 percentage points to 11.5%.
- Secondary Market: Declined by 2.1 percentage points to 20.0%.
Net Absorption Growth:
- Net absorption in H2 2021 was 47,853 sqm, with a total annual increase of 67,550 sqm.
- This was the largest increase among all CBD markets in Australia.
Face Rent Increases:
- Prime net face rents rose by 0.7% in the six months to January 2022, and by 1.6% over the year.
- Premium and A grade face rents also increased by 0.6% and 0.7% respectively.
Incentives Remain High:
- Average prime incentives stayed at 49.6% over the six months to January 2022.
- Incentives are still above historical averages and are expected to gradually decline over the next few years.
Investment Activity:
- Investment volume in 2021 reached $1.01 billion, over five times higher than in 2020 and 18% above 2019 levels.
- Major deals included Lexus' acquisition of Capital Square Tower 1, Blackrock and Primewest's purchase of 140 St Georges Terrace, and GIC's stake in One The Esplanade.

Market Outlook

Continued Vacancy Decline: The vacancy rate is projected to fall further to around 10% by the end of 2025.
Face Rent Growth: Face rents are expected to grow by approximately 3% in 2022 and over 4% per annum in the next five years.
Supply Projections:
- Westralia Square 2 (9,300 sqm) is expected to complete in H2 2022.
- Chevron's new headquarters (54,000 sqm) at One The Esplanade will be completed in H2 2023.
- Lot 4 Elizabeth Quay (70,000 sqm) and Lot 6 Elizabeth Quay (32,000 sqm) are expected to be completed by 2025 and 2025 respectively.
- The Perth Convention Centre Precinct (20,000 sqm) and 1 Mill Street (45,000 sqm) are under development for future supply.

Economic Drivers

Strong Employment Growth: WA employment increased by 6.2% since the start of the pandemic, the strongest growth in Australia.
Consumer Spending: Retail sales in WA rose by 28.3% since 2020, significantly higher than the national increase of 17.7%.
Commodity and Energy Prices: Sharp increases in commodity prices, especially base metals and bulk commodities, are expected to boost the resources sector and drive further demand for office space.
Border Reopening: The reopening of WA's border is anticipated to enhance employment growth and support the office market.

Market Segments

Grade	Total Stock (sqm)	Vacancy Rate (%)	Annual Net Absorption (sqm)	Annual Net Additions (sqm)	Average Net Face Rent ($/sqm)	Incentive (%)	Effective Rental Growth % YoY (Net)	Core Market Yield (%)
Prime	1,034,554	11.5	27,602	-8,009	626	49.6	-0.9	6.15-6.45
Secondary	737,281	20.0	39,948	-14,815	388	50-56	0.9	7.20-7.65
Total	1,771,835	15.0	67,550	-22,824	-	-	-	-

Key Trends and Risks

Rental Growth Momentum: With declining vacancy, face rents are expected to grow significantly, reaching around 3% in 2022 and over 4% annually in the next five years.
Incentive Pressure: While incentives are expected to decrease gradually, they will remain relatively high for the foreseeable future.
Potential Supply Impact: The development of 70,000 sqm at Lot 4 Elizabeth Quay before the end of 2025 could affect the market recovery trajectory.

Conclusion

The Perth CBD office market is showing strong signs of recovery and growth, with increased demand, declining vacancy, and rising face rents. The robust WA economy, strong employment growth, and favorable investment activity are key drivers of this trend. Future developments and market dynamics will continue to shape the outlook, with a positive expectation for sustained growth over the next five years.

Contact Information

Occupier Services: Theo Smyrniotis, +618 9225 2521, TheaSmymiris@auknightfriark.com
Valuations & Advisory: Cameron Thomson, +618 9225 2452, Cameron.Thomson@au.knightfrark.com
Research: Chris Naughtin, +612 9036 6794, ChrisNaughtin@uknightfrank.com
Capital Markets: Nick Charlton, +618 9225 2402, Nick Chatton@aukrightfrank.com
Office Leasing: Greg McAlpine, +618 9225 2426, Greg.McAlpine@auknightfark.com
Ian Edwards, +618 9225 2420, IanEdwards@aukrighthfriark.com