2009年-世界发展银行全球_Sub-Saharan_Africa_Refinery_Project___Executive_Summary_40页_1mb

Final Report: Sub-Saharan Africa Refinery Project Summary

Core Content

This report, commissioned by the World Bank and the African Refiners Association (ARA), evaluates the potential health benefits and economic costs of improving fuel quality in Sub-Saharan Africa (SSA). It combines a Health Study and a Refinery Study to assess the impact of cleaner fuels and vehicle emission controls on urban air quality and public health.

The project aims to encourage policy implementation to promote better fuel quality, intra-regional trade, and increased refining industry investments. It highlights the need for regulatory and structural changes to support the transition to cleaner fuels and the importance of aligning with global market trends.

Main Results

Health Study Overview

• Base Case: Represents current or recent historical conditions.
• Scenario 1: Focuses on reduced sulfur content in transportation fuels.
• Scenario 2: Assumes reduced sulfur fuels, improved vehicle emission controls, increased vehicle activity, and an inspection and maintenance (I&M) program, along with the phase-out of 2-stroke engines.

Key Findings:

• Health Benefits: Significant reductions in mortality and respiratory illness rates are predicted with Scenario 2.
• Monetary Valuation:
  • SSA West Region: Scenario 1 yields $640 million in annual benefits, while Scenario 2 yields $4,500 million.
  • SSA East Region: Scenario 1 yields $340 million, Scenario 2 yields $1,300 million.
  • SSA South Region: Scenario 1 yields $0, Scenario 2 yields $252 million.
• Net Present Value (NPV):
  • 5-Year Period: Health benefits are estimated at $25 billion for SSA, $18 billion for West Africa, $5.3 billion for East Africa, and $1 billion for Southern Africa.
  • 10-Year Period: Health benefits are estimated at $43 billion for SSA, $32 billion for West Africa, $9 billion for East Africa, and $1.8 billion for Southern Africa.

Refinery Study Overview

• The study models eight cases to evaluate the investment costs and operational changes required for SSA refineries to meet improved fuel standards.
• Two types of market scenarios are considered: Open Market and Constrained Market.
• Fuel Specifications: The report refers to ARA-recommended AFRI-4 standards, which require significantly lower sulfur content in both gasoline and diesel.

Key Findings:

• Investment Costs: Total investments vary by region and market scenario.
  • 2020 AFRI-4 Constrained Case: Total investment is $470 million for SSA, with regional breakdowns.
  • 2020 AFRI-4 Open Market Case: Total investment is $350 million for SSA, with regional breakdowns.
• Cost-Benefit Analysis: The potential health benefits from Scenario 2 are likely to outweigh the costs of upgrading to AFRI-4 standards over time.
• Refinery Margins: Improved fuel quality leads to higher refinery margins and revenues due to the premium price of cleaner fuels.

Key Information

Fuel Specifications (AFRI Standards)

Investment Costs

Net Present Value (NPV) of Costs vs. Health Benefits

Regional Groupings

• SGI: Senegal, Ghana, Côte d'Ivoire
• CAM: Cameroon
• NIG: Nigeria
• COG: Congo, Gabon
• ANG: Angola
• SAF: South Africa
• ZAM: Zambia
• KEN: Kenya
• SUD: Sudan

Main Viewpoints

• Health Benefits: Improving fuel quality and implementing pollution control measures significantly reduce mortality and respiratory illness rates in urban areas.
• Economic Incentives: The health benefits from Scenario 2 are substantial, even if refinery costs are doubled.
• Market Realities: SSA refineries face intense competition from global markets, especially from Middle East and Indian imports, and from declining demand in Europe and the U.S.
• Investment Needs: Refineries that invest in upgrading to AFRI-4 standards are more likely to improve margins and viability.
• Policy Recommendations: Regulatory authorities should first align with current refinery standards and then gradually move to AFRI-4 by 2015.
• Uncertainties: The report acknowledges uncertainties in data and the impact of the global recession on demand projections.

Key Uncertainties

• Data Availability: Limited and inconsistent data on emissions and fuel usage.
• Economic Conditions: The global recession affects investment and growth assumptions.
• Modeling Assumptions: The study assumes that refiners will be able to recover market costs for advanced fuels, which is essential for viability.
• Technological Requirements: Cleaner fuels are necessary for the optimal performance of modern vehicle technologies.

Conclusion

The Sub-Saharan Africa Refinery Project highlights the significant health and economic benefits of improving fuel quality and implementing pollution control measures. While the costs of upgrading to AFRI-4 standards are considerable, the long-term health benefits are substantial and likely to outweigh these costs. The study recommends that regulatory authorities take a phased approach to align with AFRI-4 standards and that governments support the necessary structural and policy changes to enable SSA refineries to compete effectively in the global market.