2009年-世界发展银行全球_Trade_in_Sub-Saharan_Africa_and_Opportunities_for_Low_Income_Countries_18页_218kb

报告摘要

Summary of "Trade in Sub-Saharan Africa and Opportunities for Low Income Countries"

Core Content

This document explores the trade patterns and neighborhood effects in Sub-Saharan Africa (SSA), focusing on how economic geography and trade policies influence trade flows. It highlights the challenges SSA faces in accessing global markets and the implications of trade for low-income countries in the region.

Main Points

1. Economic Distance in Sub-Saharan Africa

Sub-Saharan Africa is farther from major economic markets compared to other regions, largely due to its small economic size.
Despite economic shifts toward East Asia, the distance to economic markets remains unchanged for SSA.
Europe and North America have moved further from economic markets, while South Asia and East Asia have become closer.

2. Trade Patterns in SSA

Over 80% of SSA trade is with non-SSA countries, indicating a lack of regional integration.
Exports from low-income SSA countries are significantly lower than expected based on economic size and distance.
However, regional trade has increased over the past 25 years, with the share of exports going to other SSA countries rising from ~8% in the early 1980s to ~14% in 2006.

3. Impact of Economic Growth in Middle-Income Countries (MICs)

Economic growth in MICs like Botswana, Angola, and Mauritius has positive spillover effects on neighboring low-income countries (LICs), including increased demand for exports and potential access to cheaper inputs.
However, the growth in MICs is not always associated with reduced trade costs due to the region's overall economic distance.

4. Trade Cost Analysis

Trade costs in SSA are high, even when excluding tariffs and considering the impact of globalization and reduced transport costs.
Trade costs are estimated to be equivalent to an ad valorem tax of 74%, with the following breakdown:
- Tariff: 8%
- Transportation: 21%
- Language barriers: 7%
- Currency changes: 14%
- Information costs: 6%
- Security costs: 3%

5. Gravity Model Findings

A gravity model is used to estimate bilateral trade and assess the impact of economic size, distance, and other factors.
SSA countries export less than expected, as indicated by negative coefficients on SS1 and SS2 dummies.
SSA-to-SSA trade is higher than expected, shown by the positive coefficient on SS3, suggesting increasing regionalization of trade.
The under-performance of SSA exports persists even when controlling for physical geography and logistics performance.

Key Determinants of Trade

Economic size is a strong positive determinant of trade, with GDP increasing trade volume.
Distance remains a significant negative factor, reflecting trade costs.
Colonial relationships, language, and borders also play a role in bilateral trade, though they are not the primary drivers of trade performance in SSA.
Physical geography (e.g., landlocked status, proximity to coast or river) influences trade, with landlocked countries experiencing lower trade volumes.
Logistics performance is a critical factor, with better logistics correlated with higher trade volumes. However, it does not fully explain the under-performance of SSA exports.

Regionalization Trends

The share of regional trade has increased in SSA, especially among low-income countries.
Middle-income countries (excluding SACU) have not shown significant regionalization.
The trade performance of SSA has improved, but not enough to match global trends.

Conclusion

Despite the globalization trend, distance remains a key barrier to trade in SSA.
Economic integration within the region is still limited, and trade is heavily influenced by external markets.
Logistics and geography are important factors in trade performance, but tariff and non-tariff barriers may also play a role.
The "death of distance" is exaggerated; trade costs are still high, even in highly integrated economies.