2018-下一代无线网络：5G演进与路线图（英文版）-1mb

5G Evolution and Roadmap Summary

Core Content of the Document

This document outlines the evolution and roadmap of 5G technology globally, with a specific focus on India. It covers the key features, use cases, spectrum requirements, network architecture, progress made so far, and expected commercial timelines for 5G deployment.

Main Use Cases of 5G

5G is envisioned to support three major use cases:

• Enhanced Mobile Broadband (eMBB): Aimed at delivering high-speed connectivity, with speeds exceeding 1Gbit/s in dense indoor locations and up to 10Gbit/s in outdoor trials. This is critical for applications like 4K/8K video streaming and high-speed internet access.
• Massive Machine-Type Communications (mMTC): Designed to support a large number of IoT devices (up to 1 million per km²), facilitating smart city and smart home solutions. It will rely on low-band spectrum for broad coverage.
• Ultra-Reliable Low-Latency Communications (uRLLC): Targeting applications such as remote medical surgery, autonomous vehicles, and virtual reality. It requires latency under 1ms and high bandwidth for reliable communication.

These use cases highlight the diverse requirements of 5G, which pose challenges for regulators and infrastructure vendors in terms of spectrum allocation and network design.

Spectrum Roadmap for 5G

5G will require spectrum across both low-frequency (sub-1GHz) and high-frequency (20-40GHz) bands. These bands will enable a wide range of applications, from high-capacity indoor and outdoor hotspots to high-speed mobile connectivity.

• Low-band spectrum (e.g., 700MHz) is essential for wide-area coverage and is being used in several countries for early 5G trials.
• High-band spectrum (e.g., 28GHz, 39GHz) is ideal for high-speed, high-capacity services, especially in dense urban areas.
• Unlicensed bands such as 2.5GHz and 5.2GHz are also being considered for IoT applications in India.

In India, the 700MHz band was auctioned in 2016 but failed to attract bids due to high reserve prices. The 3.3-3.6GHz bands are being considered for 5G, with ongoing consultations. The government has set a target to roll out 5G by 2020, but the timeline may be extended due to ongoing 4G rollout and financial constraints.

5G Network Architecture

The 5G network architecture includes several innovations:

• Ultra-Dense Networks/Small Cells: Due to limited sub-3GHz spectrum, 5G will rely on a denser network of small cells, especially in high-demand areas like city centers. mmWave (e.g., 28GHz) is ideal for high-speed connectivity but faces challenges with penetration losses in buildings.
• Fibre Backhaul: To support the high throughput of 5G, operators are expected to deploy fibre to most mobile sites. mmWave spectrum may also be used for microwave backhaul.
• Cloud RAN: A shift from traditional RAN to cloud-based RAN is underway, enabling more flexible and scalable network operations. This architecture is a precursor to network slicing, which allows operators to customise networks for specific use cases.

Progress on 5G to Date

Several operators and vendors have already begun conducting 5G trials globally:

These trials demonstrate the feasibility of 5G in various environments and applications.

Commercial Launch of 5G

• The 5G standardisation is expected to be completed by 2019, with commercial deployment beginning in developed markets from 2020 onwards.
• The real impact of 5G is anticipated to occur after 2025, with the GSMA forecasting that 5G will cover a third of the global population by then.
• In India, commercial launch is expected by 2022, which is earlier than the 2020 target for developed markets. This is attributed to the progress made in 4G rollout and the early adoption of 5G technologies like Massive MIMO.
• Operators are cautious due to the high costs of deploying 5G, and the uncertainty around spectrum availability and pricing.

Key Challenges and Considerations

• Spectrum allocation is a critical factor in 5G deployment, with operators and regulators needing to work closely to ensure availability and affordability.
• The divergent requirements of the three use cases (eMBB, mMTC, uRLLC) mean that infrastructure vendors must develop flexible and scalable solutions.
• Regulatory and financial hurdles in India, such as the auction timing and reserve prices, could delay the commercial rollout of 5G.
• The transition to 5G will require operators to evolve their business models, focusing not only on smartphones but also on connected devices, IoT, and AI/VR applications.

Further Reading

For more information on 5G, the following reports are available:

• A spectrum roadmap towards 5G
• 5G fixed-wireless: the investment case for operators
• The case for 5G
• The investment case for 5G mobile

About the Authors

• Rohan Dhamija: Partner, Head - India (South Asia) & Middle East, with over 15 years of experience in telecoms strategy.
• Janette Stewart: Principal, Global expert in spectrum regulation and valuation.
• Vishal Kumarr Chadha: Engagement Manager, India Practice, with extensive experience in TMT and investment advisory.
• Shreyas Sharma: Associate Consultant, India Practice, with experience in advising telecom operators and investors.

About Analysys Mason

Analysys Mason is a global consultancy firm specialising in telecoms, media, and technology. They provide strategy, operations, and market intelligence to clients across over 110 countries. The firm has a strong presence in India and other regions, with offices in major cities like New Delhi, London, and Singapore.

Disclaimer

The information provided in this report is based on publicly available data and is the opinion of the authors. It is not intended as professional advice, and no liability is accepted for any actions taken based on the content of this report.