20250625-大公国际-2025年下半年化工行业_供需格局边际改善_行业盈利底部回暖_5页_664kb

Main summary of the report: The 2025下半年 chemical industry is expected to see an improvement in supply-demand dynamics and a回暖 of profitability at the bottom. Key factors include policies promoting green development, which have driven up to 2030 a comprehensive system for carbon peak and neutrality. Prices have been declining since mid-2024 After a rise in the first half of 2025, supply-demand stability is anticipated for chemical raw materials and products, with potential improvements in chemical fibers and fertilizers due to demand recovery. Specific areas like energy prices and产能 expansions are monitored for their impact.

Key aspects covered:

• Overall outlook: Supply-demand patterns are set to ease in 2025下半年, supporting profit recovery through advancements in green policies.
• Policy trends: Focus on green growth, energy efficiency, and sustainable development, with multiple government initiatives released in 2024-2025.
• Price movements: 2024 involved price fluctuations, with 2025 Q1 generally stable and Q2 onwards showing declines; underlying factors include raw material costs and行业 cycles.
• Sub-industry analysis:
  • Chemical raw materials and products: Supply-demand remains relatively stable in 2025.
  • Chemical fibers: With new capacities coming online, demand recovery is expected to improve supply-demand.
  • Fertilizers: Prices declined in 2024; supply-demand is "total loose, structural分化", with potential for后期 improvement.