20240826-兴证期货-对二甲苯日度报告_5页_427kb

PX对二甲苯日度报告 2024年8月26日

内容总结：

1. 行情回顾及展望
   现货方面，PX FOB韩国主港报价为907美元/吨，CFR中国主港为929美元/吨，石脑油CFR日本价格为669美元/吨。上周PX期货价格继续下探，再次创下上市以来新低，受原油价格波动影响，成本支撑减弱，预计PX价格以低位震荡为主。

   供需方面，供应端国内开工率升至86.4%，亚洲地区为79.1%，供应能力较强。需求端PTA开工负荷恢复缓慢，整体供需格局仍偏宽松，但金九银十传统旺季推进力度较弱，反弹动能不足。

2. 后市展望
   基于成本端原油价格走弱及供需面偏宽松的判断，PX价格短期内承压运行。需关注原油价格走势与下游需求恢复情况，建议短期谨慎操作。

3. 风险提示

   • 原料价格大幅回落
   • 下游开工不及预期
   • 装置临时检修

Summary (English)

PX Daily Report - August 26, 2024

1. Market Review and Outlook
   Spot prices: PX FOB Korea at $907/t, CFR China at $929/t; gasoline CFR Japan at $669/t. PX futures prices weakened further last week, reaching a new low, primarily due to sluggish cost support from fluctuating crude oil prices.

   Supply and demand: China’s PX production capacity rose to 86.4%, while Asia’s reached 79.1%, maintaining ample supply. However, weak demand recovery in the PTA sector suggests continued supply-demand balance pressure despite improving conditions.

   The traditional peak demand period of “Golden September and Silver October” also weakened in performance expectations, contributing to minimal price rebound momentum.

2. Market Outlook
   With oil prices deteriorating and weak supply-demand dynamics, PX prices are expected to hold near current levels. Shippers should monitor crude oil trends closely and manage risk carefully.

3. Risk Factors

   • Price declines in raw materials
   • Slower-than-expected downstream recovery
   • Unplanned maintenance at PX plants