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Summary of The World Order in 2050

Core Content

This document outlines a long-term economic and geopolitical forecast for the year 2050, focusing on the shifting global economic power and its implications for international relations, technological development, and poverty reduction. It presents projections based on a standard output model, incorporating factors such as population growth, investment rates, and technological progress. The report suggests that the global economic order will undergo a significant transformation, with the traditional Western powers losing their dominance to emerging economies in Asia and Latin America.

Main Points

1. Economic Power Shift

• Global economic power is shifting rapidly from traditional Western economies to developing countries, especially in the South and East.
• China is projected to overtake the U.S. as the world's largest economy by 2032, with India also rising to become a major global leader by mid-century.
• The U.S., China, and India will form the new "Triad" of global economic power by 2050, with the combined GDP of these three nations being 70% higher than the rest of the G20.
• The EU may join the Triad as a fourth global power if its members act collectively, but its per capita growth will be slower than that of emerging economies.

2. Growth Drivers

• Demographic factors play a key role, with developing countries experiencing rapid population and labor force growth.
• Investment rates are higher in developing countries, though technology will become increasingly important for growth.
• Technology absorption and innovation will drive development, particularly in countries with strong education systems and infrastructure.

3. Technological Catch-Up

• Developing countries will benefit from technological progress, but the rate of catch-up varies depending on factors like education, governance, and infrastructure.
• China, India, and Russia are well-positioned for faster technological adoption due to higher educational attainment and supportive conditions.
• India and Indonesia lag in technological catch-up due to lower education levels and poor business climates.

4. Exchange Rate Appreciation

• As developing countries grow more productive, real exchange rates will appreciate, which could reduce their competitiveness in labor-intensive manufacturing.
• However, this appreciation will also improve terms of trade and lower import costs, benefiting consumers and producers.

5. Global Poverty Decline

• Absolute poverty will be largely eliminated in most G20 countries by 2050, with only small pockets of sub-Saharan Africa and India remaining affected.
• Relative poverty will still be a challenge, especially in sub-Saharan Africa, where 16.9% of the population is expected to live on less than $2.00 a day in 2050.
• China and India will be the main drivers of poverty reduction, lifting over 600 million people out of extreme poverty.

6. Role of International Organizations

• International organizations like the IMF will need to reform their governance structures to reflect the new economic landscape.
• Those that fail to adapt will become marginalized in global economic decision-making.

7. Regional Projections

• Emerging economies such as Brazil, Russia, India, China, Indonesia, and Mexico will account for over 60% of the G20's GDP growth by 2050.
• Japan and Russia will experience slower growth, with Japan's per capita GDP expected to stagnate and Russia's population declining.
• Sub-Saharan African countries (Ethiopia, Ghana, Kenya, Nigeria) are projected to grow rapidly, though their per capita incomes will remain low.

Key Information

• The GDP of the G20 is expected to grow from $38.3 trillion in 2009 to $160.0 trillion in 2050.
• China's GDP is projected to rise from $3.3 trillion in 2009 to $46.3 trillion in 2050.
• India's GDP will grow from $1.1 trillion in 2009 to $15.4 trillion in 2050.
• Europe's share of G20 GDP will fall from 72.3% in 2009 to 40.5% in 2050.
• Nigeria may surpass the smallest G20 economy in 2005 U.S. dollar terms by 2050, but its per capita income will still be much lower than that of China and India.

Conclusion

The world in 2050 will be marked by a new economic order, with the "Rise of the Rest"—a shift in economic power from the West to the South and East. This transformation will lead to new alliances and geopolitical dynamics, with traditional powers like the U.S. and EU losing influence to emerging economies. While poverty will decline globally, relative disparities will persist, particularly in sub-Saharan Africa. The report underscores the need for international institutions to adapt and for countries to improve governance, education, and infrastructure to fully benefit from global economic trends.