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报告摘要

FYSA Summary: Issue 13 | November 2014

Core Content

FYSA Issue 13, published in November 2014, is a publication by the International Security Program (ISP) at the Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS). It highlights various upcoming and recent events related to defense, security, and nuclear policy, along with insights and analyses on current security challenges and U.S. defense strategy.

Upcoming Events

SMART WOMEN, SMART POWER LAUNCH
- Date: Monday, December 8, 2014
- Time: 5:00-7:00 p.m.
- Location: CSIS, 1616 Rhode Island Ave., NW
- Featured: Ambassador Samantha Power, U.S. Permanent Representative to the United Nations
MILITARY STRATEGY FORUM: DEFENSE BUDGETING IN AN UNCERTAIN FISCAL ENVIRONMENT
- Date: Friday, December 5, 2014
- Time: 1:00-2:00 p.m.
- Location: CSIS, 1616 Rhode Island Ave., NW
- Featured: Dr. Jamie Morin, Director of Cost Assessment and Program Evaluation, Department of Defense
PONI 2014 WINTER CONFERENCE
- Date: December 9-10, 2014
- Focus: Panels of presentations from young nuclear experts

Recent Events

BOOK LAUNCH: "AGAINST THE TIDE"
- Featured a conversation with David Oliver, Rear Admiral (Ret.), U.S. Navy
TALKING TECHNOLOGY: A CONFERENCE AND WORKSHOP
- Explored best practices and lessons learned for communicating about science and technology in the context of national security
THE NONPROLIFERATION IMPLICATIONS OF JAPAN'S NUCLEAR FUEL CYCLE DECISIONS
- Panel discussion on Japan's nuclear fuel cycle and its impact on the nonproliferation regime
LEVERAGING INDUSTRY TO SUPPORT U.S. SECURITY COOPERATION OBJECTIVES: OPPORTUNITIES AND CHALLENGES
- Featured Andrew Hunter, highlighting the challenges and opportunities of using industry for security cooperation
IN DEMAND: USAF ISR FOR THE JOINT FORCE
- Conversation with Major General John Shanahan on the 25th Air Force and the future of Air Force ISR
ACHIEVING DISASTER RESILIENCE IN U.S. COMMUNITIES
- Explored a "whole of community" approach to disaster resilience

Key Analysis: U.S. Defense Strategy and the Third Offset Strategy

Defense Strategy Reassessment
- The U.S. faces new security challenges from revanchist Russia and ISIL, prompting a reevaluation of its defense strategy.
- The 2014 Quadrennial Defense Review (QDR) emphasized a rebalancing of the military toward a full spectrum of conflict, including cyber, space, missile defense, nuclear deterrence, precision strike, and ISR capabilities.
Third Offset Strategy
- The concept of a "third offset strategy" is being discussed to maintain U.S. strategic dominance, building on the first two offset strategies: Eisenhower's New Look and the precision strike regime.
- However, the strategy lacks clarity on what it is offsetting from, focusing primarily on high-end capabilities while neglecting the relevance of low-end threats like insurgency.
F-35 Program as a Model
- The F-35 program successfully navigated global cooperation challenges, including sharing digital design tools across multiple countries.
- The question remains whether such cooperation can be extended to lower-profile multinational programs.
Ground Force Cuts and Fiscal Constraints
- The QDR proposed reducing the active Army end-strength to 440,000–450,000 by FY2019, with potential cuts to 420,000 if sequestration is enacted.
- CSIS experts suggest further cuts may be necessary due to rising costs, raising concerns about the risks of ground force reduction in the face of emerging threats.
Nuclear Enterprise Review
- Secretary Chuck Hagel announced a review of the U.S. nuclear enterprise, identifying "consistent lack of investment" and "systematic problems."
- The review highlighted a culture of over-inspection and micro-management, as well as doubts about the nation's commitment to the nuclear mission.
- A $7.5 million investment over five years was announced to revitalize the nuclear force.

Future of the Nuclear Enterprise

Need for Next-Generation Talent
- Monetary investment alone is insufficient to address systemic issues in the nuclear enterprise.
- The U.S. must invest in training and employing the next generation of nuclear policy experts and technical personnel.
PONI Winter Conference
- The Project on Nuclear Issues (PONI) is holding its annual winter conference on December 9-10 to explore how the next generation can rethink nuclear policy and address systemic challenges.

Multimedia and Media Highlights

Video: Available from the fifth annual Global Security Forum
Audio: Discussion featuring Kathleen Hicks and Elaine Kamarck on the impact of midterm elections on defense
Quote Highlights:
- "It's ISIS, it's Ebola, it's Russia. Name your problem, ground forces matter." – Maren Leed, Foreign Policy
- "There is a chance for big change coming out of these elections... Lawmakers seem to be speaking with a more united voice, which is good news for defense." – Ryan Crotty, Los Angeles Times
- "The yard itself could be at risk... You don't have that steady stream of ships every year the way you do with destroyers and subs." – Andrew Hunter, Breaking Defense
- "While it is too early to assess what impact it will have toward the military objectives of Operation Inherent Resolve, GCC member participation raises several implications for the future of the region's security." – Melissa Dalton, Defense One

Recent Publications

2015 Global Forecast
- Series of articles by CSIS scholars on the role of deterrence in U.S. national security strategy
"Post-Election Wrap-Up: What's Next for Defense Spending?"
- By Ryan Crotty, analyzing the implications of the midterm election on defense spending
"Achieving Disaster Resilience in U.S. Communities"
- By Stephanie Sanok Kostro and Garrett Riba, examining disaster resilience efforts and public-private partnerships
"Advances and Challenges in Political Transitions"
- Report on the implications of today's complexities for future conflicts and transitions
"Project on Nuclear Issues"
- Collection of papers from PONI's recent Capstone Conference
"Japan's Nuclear Fuel Cycle Futures"
- By Sharon Squassoni and Robert Kim, analyzing the nonproliferation implications of Japan's nuclear fuel cycle decisions