巴黎银行-全球-贵金属市场-黄金：淘金热过后-20181026-9页_1mb

FOCUS | Gold Summary

Core Content

This report provides an analysis of the gold market as of 26 October 2018, highlighting key factors influencing its price movement and offering strategic insights for investors. It discusses the broader macroeconomic environment, including U.S. monetary policy, dollar strength, and inflation expectations, and evaluates the role of gold as a safe-haven asset amid market volatility.

Main Points

• Gold Price Movement:

  • Gold prices have seen a modest increase, primarily due to de-risking in equity markets.
  • The price of gold has fluctuated between USD1180 and USD1210/oz, with a recent rise to USD1240/oz.
  • The report views the recent uptick as a correction rather than the start of a bear market.

• Market Outlook:

  • The report remains negatively biased on gold prices through H1 2019.
  • The 2018 forecast is revised up to USD1260/oz, and the 2019 forecast is raised to USD1145/oz.

• Key Headwinds:

  • Higher U.S. Treasury yields (especially the 10-year yield, expected to rise to 3.2% in June 2019).
  • A strong U.S. dollar is expected to continue, with the DXY index recovering to August levels.
  • Positive real rates due to low inflation and rising yields, which make gold less attractive compared to fixed income.

• Fed Policy and Divergence:

  • The Fed is on track for two more rate hikes in 2018 and 2019, with the next likely in December 2018 and Q1 2019.
  • The ECB is expected to end asset purchases in December, but will likely maintain accommodative policy, leading to a potential first rate hike in September 2019.
  • This policy divergence is a key driver of dollar strength and, by extension, gold weakness.

• Safe-Haven Demand:

  • Despite global uncertainties (e.g., U.S.-China trade disputes, EM issues, geopolitical events), gold has not convincingly rallied.
  • This suggests that traditional safe-haven demand is lacking.

• Investor Behavior:

  • ETF holdings in gold remain below their peak levels from April 2018.
  • Private wealth managers and macro funds have been buying dips below USD1200/oz, supporting the price.
  • The report suggests that equity market jitters are a temporary support for gold.

• Strategic Recommendation:

  • The report recommends long USD1190/1150 put spreads for March 2019, with a cost of USD5.90/oz.
  • It anticipates a weakening in gold prices in Q1 2019 due to the strong dollar and positive real rates.

• Volatility and Risk Reversals:

  • Gold's 30-day volatility has remained around 10%, with limited movement in the broader market.
  • Risk reversals continue to price call options above put options, indicating a bullish bias in the market, but the report sees downside risks in H1 2019.

• Gold-Silver Ratio:

  • The gold-silver ratio has fluctuated, with a current ratio of 81, suggesting that gold is overvalued relative to silver.

• Correlation with Dollar:

  • Gold has shown negative correlation with the DXY dollar index, reinforcing the idea that a strong dollar is a headwind for gold.

• Inflation Expectations:

  • Inflation remains contained, with U.S. inflation at 2.3% year-over-year in September.
  • This low inflation environment contributes to positive real rates, making gold less attractive.

Key Information

• Gold Price Forecasts:

  • Q1 2018: USD1329/oz
  • Q2 2018: USD1306/oz
  • Q3 2018: USD1213/oz
  • Q4 2018: USD1190/oz
  • Q1 2019: USD1145/oz
  • Q2 2019: USD1110/oz
  • Q3 2019: USD1175/oz
  • Q4 2019: USD1140/oz

• Silver Price Forecasts:

  • Q1 2018: USD16.77/oz
  • Q2 2018: USD16.53/oz
  • Q3 2018: USD15.00/oz
  • Q4 2018: USD14.30/oz
  • Q1 2019: USD14.05/oz
  • Q2 2019: USD13.95/oz
  • Q3 2019: USD14.70/oz
  • Q4 2019: USD14.10/oz

• Market Outlook for 2019:

  • The report expects the dollar to weaken in H2 2019 due to a slowdown in the U.S. economy.
  • Gold is expected to face pressure in Q1 2019 from strong dollar and positive real rates.

• Data and Charts:

  • Several figures are provided to illustrate gold and silver volatility, risk reversals, and correlations with the dollar and other assets.
  • These figures support the analysis of gold's price dynamics and market sentiment.

Conclusion

Gold faces significant headwinds in the near term due to a strong dollar, rising U.S. yields, and contained inflation. While recent equity market turbulence has provided a temporary boost to gold, the report remains bearish on its long-term outlook. Investors are advised to consider hedging strategies such as long USD1190/1150 put spreads for March 2019. The report highlights the importance of monitoring U.S. economic data, Fed policy, and dollar strength in shaping the future of gold prices.