兰德-Current-and-Future-Exposure-of-Infrastructure-in-the-United-States-to-Natural-Hazards_55页_2mb

Summary of Current and Future Exposure of Infrastructure in the United States to Natural Hazards

Core Content

This report by the RAND Corporation, commissioned by the Department of Homeland Security (DHS), provides an analysis of the current and future exposure of U.S. infrastructure to natural hazards. It highlights the increasing risks due to climate change and the need for improved data and analytical methods to support infrastructure resilience planning.

The study focuses on the continental United States and uses a comprehensive dataset to assess how infrastructure is exposed to various natural hazards. It emphasizes the importance of integrating natural hazard risk assessment into infrastructure planning to ensure long-term resilience and security.

Main Findings

• Infrastructure Exposure is Increasing: The exposure of infrastructure to natural hazards is expected to rise across the continental United States, with some areas facing disproportionately high risks.
• Climate Change Impacts: Climate change is projected to increase the intensity, frequency, and geographic reach of certain natural hazards, such as coastal flooding, riverine flooding, and wildfires.
• Data Gaps: There are significant data gaps that limit the accuracy of current and future risk assessments, including:
  • Incomplete baseline data for riverine flooding and coastal flood maps in certain regions (e.g., Louisiana and parts of Florida).
  • Lack of probabilistic exposure data for hazards like ice storms, drought, and wildfires.
  • Uncertainty about the effects of climate change on some hazards.
  • Inadequate infrastructure data detail for risk analysis.
  • Missing data for Alaska, Hawaii, and U.S. territories.
  • Uncertainty about future infrastructure development locations.

Key Information

Infrastructure Sectors Analyzed

The report includes data from the following infrastructure sectors:

• Chemical industry: Chemical manufacturing (52,759 assets)
• Communications: Internet exchange points (78 assets)
• Energy (including nuclear power):
  • Electric power generation plants (4,017)
  • Electric power substations (870)
  • Energy power transmission lines (208,612)
  • Energy distribution and control facilities (80)
  • Natural gas import/export points (26)
  • Natural gas processing plants (179)
  • Nuclear fuel facilities (13)
  • Nuclear plants (89)
  • Oil and natural gas pipelines (1,685,806)
  • Petroleum, oil, and lubricants storage facilities (58)
  • Refineries (144)
• Transportation:
  • Airports (180)
  • Canals (1,186)
  • DHS-identified railroad bridges (114)
  • Railroad stations (499)
  • Railroad transit lines (73,528)
  • DHS-identified railroad tunnels (30)
  • Railroad yards (2,211)
  • DHS-identified road bridges and tunnels (140)
  • Coastal, Great Lakes, and inland ports (22,635)
  • FAA air route traffic control centers (22)
  • Fixed-guideway transit systems (5,340)
  • Intermodal terminal facilities (3,270)
  • Interstate highways (83,443)
  • Locks (219)
  • Water supply and wastewater treatment:
    • Dams (372)
    • Wastewater treatment plants (3,970)

Natural Hazards Analyzed

The report analyzes 11 natural hazards, categorized into climate-adjusted and climate-unadjusted:

Climate-adjusted hazards:

• Coastal flooding (including permanent inundation, tidal flooding, and storm surge)
• Extreme temperature
• Meteorological drought (dryness)
• Wildfires

Climate-unadjusted hazards:

• Earthquakes
• Hurricane winds
• Ice storms
• Landslides
• Riverine flooding
• Tsunamis
• Tornadoes

Return Periods for Hazards

• Coastal flooding: 2, 5, 10, 20, 50, and 100 years
• Extreme temperature: 2, 5, 10, 20, 50, and 100 years
• Meteorological drought (dryness): 75th and 95th Keetch-Byram Drought Index (KBDI) values
• Wildfires: Not applicable
• Earthquakes: 500 and 2,500 years
• Hurricane winds: 10, 20, 50, and 100 years
• Ice storms: Not applicable
• Landslides: Not applicable
• Riverine flooding: 100-year floodplain
• Tsunamis: Coastal elevation and categorization from Risk Management Solutions
• Tornadoes: 10, 20, 50, and 100 years

Policy and Research Implications

• Integrate Risk Assessment: Infrastructure and community resilience efforts should incorporate climate change impacts and future hazard exposures.
• Need for Granular Data: More detailed and specific data on natural hazard exposure and infrastructure vulnerabilities are needed to support effective planning.
• Support for Small Communities: Small and medium-sized communities lack the resources for comprehensive risk assessments and need better data to plan for future exposures.
• Multifaceted Efforts Required: Addressing these challenges will require collaborative efforts to collect descriptive data from communities, improve scientific understanding of hazards, and develop tools for mitigation planning.

Methodology

• Data Source: The 2013 Homeland Infrastructure Foundation-Level Data (HSIP) Gold dataset.
• Analysis Focus: The study identifies infrastructure sectors most at risk and examines how climate change may alter their exposure.
• Exposure Definition: Exposure is defined as the presence of an infrastructure asset in a location where a natural hazard could cause damage or disruption, with a focus on the likelihood and intensity of such events.
• Vulnerability Consideration: Vulnerability is influenced by infrastructure design, operation, and maintenance practices.
• Consequences: The report outlines the potential consequences of infrastructure exposure, including physical damage, service disruptions, and community recovery needs.

Conclusion

The report underscores the critical need for better data and more integrated risk assessments in infrastructure planning. It provides a foundational understanding of current and future natural hazard exposures and highlights the importance of addressing data gaps to enhance infrastructure resilience. The findings are relevant for policymakers, planners, and researchers focused on climate change adaptation and community resilience.