世界发展银行-Transcript-of-Media-Roundtable-for-East-Asia-and-the-Pacific_14页_122kb

报告摘要

Date: July 15, 2021
Event: Media roundtable for East Asia and the Pacific region
Participants: David Malpass (World Bank Group President), Victoria Kwakwa (Vice President for East Asia and the Pacific), and various journalists from international media outlets

Early Pandemic Impact: East Asia and the Pacific were the first regions affected by the pandemic.
Uneven Recovery: Growth is uneven across countries and sectors. The region is expected to grow at 4% (excluding China) and 7.7% (with China) in 2021.
Poverty Increase: Due to the pandemic, 29 million people are expected to fall below the $5.50 per day poverty line by the end of 2021.
Vaccination Challenges: Many countries may not fully vaccinate their populations until 2024 due to supply shortages and logistical issues.

Vaccine Taskforce: Malpass chairs a taskforce involving IMF, WHO, and WTO to address vaccine access.
Call for G20 Action: The G20 is urged to share vaccine doses, provide financing, and remove export barriers.
World Bank Financing: The World Bank has allocated $20 billion for vaccine financing globally, with $1.1 billion already committed to East Asia and the Pacific.

Fiscal Sustainability: Stimulus and social protection measures must be targeted, adaptable, and sustainable.
Public Debt: Average public debt increased by 7 percentage points of GDP. Some countries face unsustainable debt burdens.
Taxation: The region raises only 18% of GDP through taxation, lower than other emerging markets. Regressive energy subsidies (over 1% of GDP in some countries) should be reduced.
Debt Relief: The World Bank and IMF are working together through the Common Framework to provide debt relief and create fiscal space for recovery.

Greenhouse Gas Emissions: The region is a major emitter of greenhouse gases and must transition away from coal and heavy industry.
Clean Energy Investment: The region has scaled up coal power over the past decade. Cleaner energy and natural asset investments are crucial for future employment and economic opportunities.
Climate Action Plan: The World Bank launched a new Climate Change Action Plan to align development and investment with climate priorities.

Marine Plastics: East Asia is the epicenter of plastic waste. The World Bank has $2 billion in the project pipeline to address plastic pollution across the value chain.
Solid Waste Management: Investments are being made to improve solid waste systems, encourage sustainable product design, and support environmental policies.

Severe Impact: Youth employment has not recovered adequately, and it's a major challenge for the region.
Skills and Training: Needed to improve education and workforce skills, especially in the private sector.
New Business Formation: Critical for job creation, but has been affected by the pandemic.

Vaccination Disparities: Countries with higher vaccination rates are recovering faster, creating a two-speed recovery.
Global Implications: This could lead to long-term economic imbalances and regional spillovers, especially in Southeast Asia.

Strong Growth: China is expected to grow at 8.5% in 2021, driven by strong exports and domestic consumption.
Challenges: Weakness in consumer spending and supply chain issues (e.g., chip shortages) pose risks to sustained growth.
Climate Alignment: China must align its growth with climate goals, including carbon taxation and emissions trading systems.

Economic Collapse: The World Bank forecasts a -9.6% growth for Myanmar due to the coup, violence, and economic shutdowns.
Worsening Situation: The economic contraction is expected to be even worse due to worsening COVID-19 conditions and vaccination challenges.
Regional Spillover: The crisis in Myanmar could affect neighboring countries, especially Thailand, due to refugee flows and economic interdependencies.

Global Inflation Trends: Inflation is rising and may be transitory or persistent, depending on supply chain recovery.
Central Bank Actions: Countries like South Korea and New Zealand are considering monetary tightening, which could affect emerging markets.
Supply Side Constraints: Issues like chip shortages and oil price increases contribute to inflationary pressures.

The pandemic has deepened inequalities and disrupted economic recovery in the region.
Vaccine access is a critical factor for economic rebound and poverty reduction.
Fiscal reforms and tax improvements are essential for sustainable recovery.
Climate change mitigation is a priority, especially for high-emitting economies.
Environmental issues, such as marine plastics, require multi-stage investments and policy alignment.
Regional cooperation is vital, especially in addressing Myanmar's crisis and supply chain bottlenecks.