可持续性转型与欧洲绿色协议：宏观动态视角（英）-2021.12-128页_2mb

Summary of Sustainability transition and the European Green Deal: A macro-dynamic perspective

Core Content

This report provides a macro-dynamic analysis of the sustainability transition and the European Green Deal (EGD), focusing on the interplay between environmental policies, economic growth, and social development. It explores how sustainability can be conceptualized as a systemic vision and a macro-level process, emphasizing the need for a holistic and integrated approach to policy-making.

The report highlights that while microeconomic tools are useful for specific environmental policies, they are insufficient for addressing the systemic challenges of sustainability at the macro level. It also stresses that natural limits and planetary boundaries exist, and although innovation can help decouple economic growth from environmental degradation, the need for degrowth is not universally accepted. The EGD is noted as a significant policy experiment that integrates environmental concerns with macroeconomic and fiscal strategies.

Main Views

1. Sustainability as a Systemic and Macro-Dynamic Process

• Sustainability is a systemic vision and a macro-dynamic process, requiring a top-level policy approach.
• Microeconomic tools are not sufficient to address the broader, systemic dimensions of the sustainability transition.
• Natural limits exist, and innovation can help decouple growth from environmental degradation, but degrowth may have negative impacts on public budgets and social acceptability.

2. Human Development and Social Dimensions

• Wellbeing and human development must be central to the sustainability transition.
• Inequality and social dimensions are often overshadowed by environmental concerns, and need to be integrated into the transition strategy.
• The just transition is essential to ensure that the benefits of the sustainability transition are distributed equitably across regions and sectors.

3. The European Green Deal as a Macro-Sustainability Strategy

• The European Green Deal is a major policy initiative that aims to modernize the European economy through growth and innovation.
• It brings environmental policies to the same level of importance as macroeconomic, fiscal, and financial policies.
• The EGD is closely linked with the Next Generation EU (NGEU) recovery strategy, and their interaction is critical for the transition.
• The EGD has several open issues, including sector-level bias, capability bias, and regulation bias, which may lead to uneven impacts on firms and regions.

4. Modelling the Sustainability Transition

• Modelling is essential for understanding the complex interactions, feedback loops, and time lags in macro sustainability transitions.
• Dynamic computable general equilibrium (CGE) models and causal loop diagrams (CLD) are used to assess the EGD's impact and its integration with the NGEU.
• The short-term negative effects of carbon pricing policies can be offset through appropriate fiscal policies that use revenue to support green investments and social welfare.

Key Information

2.1 Macro- and Micro-Economic Perspectives on Sustainability

• The environment versus economy debate has roots in the Industrial Revolution and Malthusian theories.
• Keynesian economics was largely absent from early sustainability discussions, while Solow-Swan models and Harrod-Domar models introduced sustainability concepts.
• The polluter-pays principle and market-based instruments (MBI) are based on microeconomic foundations, particularly in welfare economics and externalities analysis.
• Innovation plays a central role in the sustainability transition, particularly through eco-innovation and techno-organisational changes.
• The IPAT hypothesis (Impact = Population × Affluence × Technology) shows how technological efficiency can mitigate environmental impacts.

2.2 The Growth-Theoretical Framework

• Weak sustainability is based on the idea that natural capital can be substituted with man-made capital, supported by genuine savings measures.
• Strong sustainability argues that certain functions of natural capital, such as life support systems, cannot be substituted and must be preserved.
• The Hartwick rule and golden investment rule are key concepts in managing non-renewable resources sustainably.
• The optimal consumption path depends on preferences, resource availability, and capital substitutability.

2.3 The Degrowth and Well-being Framework

• Degrowth is a controversial concept that may impair public budgets and social acceptability.
• Wellbeing should be prioritized over purely economic growth, and inequality must be addressed in sustainability policies.

2.4 The European Scenario for Human Development

• The EU is diverse in terms of economic and social development, and convergence across countries is limited.
• This diversity has implications for the overall transition strategy and the just transition at the macro level.

2.5 Testing for Convergence Across Europe

• Convergence indicators are used to assess the social and economic progress of EU countries.
• These indicators highlight the open issues in the social dimension of the sustainability transition.

2.6 The Inequality Framework

• Inequality is a critical factor in the sustainability transition.
• The just transition must address capability bias and sector-level bias to ensure that all actors benefit from the transition.

2.7 The International Framework

• The international dimension of the EGD and the sustainability transition is important, as spillovers and global interactions affect the outcomes of the transition.

Conclusion

The European Green Deal represents a significant shift in the EU's approach to sustainability, integrating environmental goals with economic and social policies. However, it faces several challenges, including the need for equitable distribution, effective regulation, and consideration of social dimensions. Modelling and analytical tools are crucial for understanding and supporting the transition, and the report emphasizes the importance of macroeconomic frameworks and systemic thinking in achieving a sustainable future.