2019年亚洲商业地产市场展望（英文版）

报告摘要

Asia Market Outlook 2019 Summary

Core Content

The Asia Market Outlook 2019 report, authored by Andrew Haskins, Executive Director of Research at Colliers International, outlines the current and projected conditions across key property sectors in Asia. It highlights that while the overall market faces more challenging prospects due to slowing growth in China and the US, opportunities remain for occupiers and investors, particularly in office, logistics, and retail sectors.

Main Points

Economic and Market Outlook

Growth slowdowns are expected in China, the US, and Hong Kong, but interest rates are likely to rise slowly, keeping funding costs low.
Total property deals in Asia are projected to decline by 5% in 2019, from USD126bn in 2017, due to lower activity in Hong Kong.
Despite the slowdown, investment opportunities remain in office, logistics, and business park assets.

Office Sector

Office rents are expected to diverge across Asia in 2019.
- Singapore: Prime office rents are expected to rise by 8%.
- Shenzhen: Office rents are expected to fall by 4%.
Singapore remains a top occupier location due to its affordable rents and strong infrastructure.
Tokyo is expected to maintain low vacancy (below 3%) and stable net absorption, with prime rent growth of 0.8% over five years.
Hong Kong will see a dip in Central rents, but CBD fringe areas offer amenity and lower rents.
Bangalore and Hyderabad in India are highlighted for their growth potential and availability of quality office stock.

Logistics/Industrial Sector

The logistics sector is expected to grow further in 2019, especially in China and South Korea.
E-commerce growth and low vacancy rates in Tier 1 cities are driving demand for logistics space.
Tier 2 cities in China are becoming more attractive due to lower rents and increased supply.
Hong Kong is seeing conversion demand for industrial assets, which should push up rents and prices.
Singapore logistics market is stabilising after absorbing a large supply influx.
India is set to see sharp expansion in logistics due to infrastructure status and Goods and Services Tax (GST) reforms.

Retail Sector

Retail conditions are stable in most cities, but long-term challenges remain due to e-commerce disruption.
Shanghai: Retail rents are expected to decline slightly due to rising supply in non-prime areas.
Beijing: Retail vacancy is expected to drop further due to firm demand and active tenant adjustment.
Hong Kong: Retail sales are expected to increase by 5–7% in 2019, with high-street rents rising by 2%.
Singapore: Retail rents on Orchard Road are expected to rise by 1–2% in 2019, while suburban areas will see stabilisation.

Investment Market

Investment transactions in Asia are expected to decline by 5% in 2019, from USD126bn in 2017, mainly due to weaker activity in Hong Kong.
Hong Kong is expected to see a 15% drop in investment deals.
Seoul and Tokyo are still attractive investment locations, while Shanghai and Singapore have seen declines.
Office assets in Singapore, Tokyo, and Bangalore are highlighted as appealing investment opportunities.
Logistics assets in China and India are also highly sought after.

Key Information

Office rent divergence is a major trend, with Singapore and Bangalore seeing rent growth, while Shenzhen, Guangzhou, Hong Kong, Shanghai, and Beijing face rent declines or flat growth.
Logistics expansion is strong in China, with e-commerce and low vacancy as key drivers.
India’s logistics sector is expected to see sharp growth due to infrastructure status and GST implementation.
Retail markets are stabilising but face long-term challenges in adapting to e-commerce and changing consumer preferences.
Investment opportunities remain, particularly in office, logistics, and business park assets, despite a modest slowdown in transactions.

Conclusion

The 2019 Asia property market is expected to face moderate challenges due to economic slowdowns and market turbulence, but opportunities persist, especially in office and logistics sectors. Singapore, Tokyo, and Bangalore are highlighted as top locations for investment and occupier activity, while CBD fringe areas in Hong Kong and Wanchai offer affordable rents and amenities. India is set to see significant growth in logistics and retail, supported by policy changes and infrastructure development.