2018年-查塔姆研究所_Economic_Drivers_of_Conflict_and_Cooperation_in_the_Horn_of_Africa_16页_1013kb

报告摘要

Economic Drivers of Conflict and Cooperation in the Horn of Africa: A Regional Perspective

Summary

The Horn of Africa is a region marked by persistent conflict, which is deeply intertwined with economic factors. This paper explores the economic motivations that underpin both conflict and cooperation across the region, emphasizing the role of resource control, trade, and infrastructure in shaping political dynamics.

Core Content

The economic dimension is a key driver of conflict and cooperation in the Horn of Africa. Conflicts often have cross-border economic impacts, and understanding these dynamics is essential for addressing the region's security and development challenges. The paper identifies four major zones of borderland insecurity where economic factors play a central role in conflict and post-conflict cooperation.

Key Economic Drivers

Access to Sea Ports: A critical issue for Ethiopia and Southern Sudan, as it affects trade and energy security. Ethiopia's lack of direct access to the sea makes it heavily reliant on ports in Eritrea and Djibouti.
Livestock Trade: Livestock remains a vital economic activity, especially in southern Somalia, Somaliland, and Puntland. Informal cross-border trade sustains local economies and has implications for regional stability.
Energy Security: Ethiopia's hydroelectric projects, such as the Tekeze and Gibe dams, are significant for reducing oil dependence and enhancing regional energy cooperation.
Remittances and Diaspora Influence: The Somali diaspora plays a crucial role in funding local economies and supporting informal trade networks, particularly in Nairobi and Somaliland.
Informal Trade Networks: These networks, often based on trust and local institutions, facilitate the movement of goods and money across borders, even in conflict zones.
Land Rights and Resource Distribution: Disputes over land and resource access are common and often linked to broader economic and political tensions.
International Trade and Investment: The presence of foreign military bases and investment opportunities, such as Chinese-backed energy projects, influences economic and political dynamics in the region.

Regional Zones of Insecurity

Southern Somalia – NE Kenya – SE Ethiopia
- Conflict in southern Somalia has disrupted livestock and trade routes, leading to informal trade networks that bypass traditional ports.
- The rise and fall of the Islamic Courts and the role of clan-based politics in shaping economic outcomes are highlighted.
- The hawala system facilitates cross-border financial transactions without the need for formal banking.
- Khat trade between Kenya and Somalia is another example of informal economic cooperation.
Somaliland – Ethiopia – Djibouti – SE Eritrea
- Livestock trade is central to Somaliland's economy, with significant portions sourced from Ethiopia.
- The port of Berbera is a key trade hub, but faces competition from Djibouti and potential economic integration with Ethiopia.
- Khat trade also plays a major role in the region, contributing to both local and national economies.
- Eritrea's support for armed opposition groups in Somalia and Ethiopia is driven by the desire to counterbalance Ethiopia's economic and political influence.
Eritrea – Ethiopia – Sudan
- The closure of the border between Eritrea and Ethiopia during the 1998-2000 war redirected trade through Djibouti, increasing its economic significance.
- The Abyei oilfields and the division of oil royalties between north and south Sudan could affect regional stability.
- Eritrea's refugee population in Sudan presents both economic opportunities and potential threats to its domestic markets.
Ethiopia – Sudan – N Uganda – NW Kenya
- Trade and migration across the Ethiopia-Sudan border have a long history, with informal trade routes playing a vital role in regional economic integration.
- The CPA in Sudan and potential independence of Southern Sudan could reshape trade relationships with Ethiopia and Uganda.
- The development of infrastructure, such as the new transmission line between Bahr Dar and Metema, is crucial for energy security and regional cooperation.

Conclusion

The paper argues that for sustainable peace and development in the Horn of Africa, it is essential to recognize the role of economic drivers and to build on traditional institutions that promote community cohesion. Economic policies must be equitable and inclusive to harness these drivers effectively. The interconnectedness of the region's economies means that local conflicts have far-reaching implications, and cooperation is possible if economic interests are aligned and institutional frameworks support it.

Main Points

Economic motivations are central to conflict and cooperation in the Horn of Africa.
Informal trade networks play a significant role in sustaining economies and influencing political outcomes.
Resource control, especially over land and ports, is a recurring source of conflict.
Regional interdependencies mean that economic issues in one country often affect others.
Traditional institutions and local trust mechanisms are vital for informal economic cooperation.
Equitable economic policies are necessary to ensure long-term stability and development.

Key Information

The Horn of Africa includes Ethiopia, Somalia, Djibouti, Eritrea, and Sudan.
Four major zones of borderland insecurity are identified:
- Southern Somalia – NE Kenya – SE Ethiopia
- Somaliland – Ethiopia – Djibouti – SE Eritrea
- Eritrea – Ethiopia – Sudan
- Ethiopia – Sudan – N Uganda – NW Kenya
Livestock trade is a major economic activity, often informal and cross-border.
Khat trade is significant in several regions, contributing to tax revenue and economic stability.
Port fees and trade routes are critical for economic development and regional integration.
Economic drivers can both fuel conflict and provide opportunities for cooperation.
Infrastructure development, such as energy and transport projects, is key to long-term regional stability.