20260306-招银国际-4Q25_results_AI_to_drive_healthy_community_development_and_monetization_improvement_7页_677kb

报告摘要

Bilibili (BILI US) 4Q25 Financial Summary and Outlook

Core Content and Key Information

Bilibili (BILI US) reported its fourth-quarter 2025 financial results, highlighting a 6% YoY increase in total revenue to RMB8.32bn, surpassing the Bloomberg consensus estimate by 2%. This growth was primarily driven by the advertising business, which saw a 27% YoY increase to RMB3.04bn. The adjusted net income also showed strong growth, rising 94% YoY to RMB878mn, 10% above the consensus estimate, due to operating leverage and effective opex control.

Looking ahead, the company forecasts 6% and 8% YoY revenue growth for 1Q26E and FY26E, respectively, with advertising expected to remain a key growth driver. However, the margin expansion pace is expected to slow in FY26E due to increased AI investment, which is anticipated to yield long-term benefits in community development, monetization, and operating efficiency.

The company has trimmed its FY26-27E earnings forecast by 2–4% due to higher AI-related spending. The SOTP-derived target price has been lowered to US$30.5 per ADS from US$31.00, with a 19.4% upside from the current price of US$25.55. The rating remains BUY.

Main Business Segments

VAS (Value-Added Services):
- Revenue increased 6% YoY to RMB3.26bn, representing 39% of total revenue.
- Live streaming was a key contributor, with Fan Charging program revenue doubling YoY.
Advertising:
- Revenue surged 27% YoY to RMB3.04bn, accounting for 37% of total revenue.
- AI-related ad budgets rose by c. 180% YoY, indicating strong demand for AI services.
- Smart ad delivery system improved the cold start success rate of ad campaigns by c. 300% YoY.
Mobile Games:
- Revenue declined 14% YoY to RMB1.54bn, or 19% of total revenue.
- The decline was mainly due to SanMou, partially offset by Escape from Duckov.
- Two new titles, Ncard and Lumi Master, are expected to launch in 2026.

Financial Metrics and Performance

Gross Margin:
- Improved 0.9ppt YoY and 0.3ppt QoQ to 37.0% in 4Q25.
- Expected to rise c. 1–2ppt YoY in 1Q26E and FY26E, although slightly impacted by AI investment.
Adjusted Net Profit Margin:
- Rose to 9.0% in 4Q25, up from 8.5% in 1Q25.
- Expected to continue improving in 1Q26E and FY26E.
EPS (Adjusted):
- RMB7.06 for FY25A, RMB7.1 for FY26E.
- Consensus EPS for FY26E is RMB7.38, with CMBIGM’s forecast at RMB7.1, resulting in a -4.5% revision.

Valuation and Peer Comparison

SOTP Valuation:
- Total valuation is estimated at RMB95,406mn, or US$30.5 per ADS.
- Advertising business contributes RMB51,142mn (54% of total valuation), using a 21x 2026E PE.
- VAS business contributes RMB21,154mn (22%), based on a 1.7x 2026E PS.
- Mobile games contribute RMB22,324mn (23%), using an 18x 2026E PE, which is discounted compared to the industry average.
- IP derivatives and others contribute RMB785mn (1%), using a 0.4x 2026E PS.
Peer Comparison:
- Advertising sector: Bilibili’s target PE is 21x for 2026E, compared to an industry average of 20x.
- Online games sector: Bilibili’s target PE is 18x, below the industry average of 19x.
- Online video sector: Bilibili’s PS multiple is 1.7x, in line with other platforms.
- First-party e-commerce sector: Bilibili’s PS multiple is 0.4x, similar to e-commerce peers like JD and Vipshop.

Shareholding and Market Data

Major Shareholders:
- Rui Chen: 11.6%
- Tencent: 10.6%
Stock Performance:
- 12-month price performance: -19.0% absolute, -18.2% relative to the market.
- Current Price: US$25.55
- Target Price: US$30.50, representing a 19.4% upside.
Market Cap: US$11,344.9mn
Average 3-month turnover: US$69.0mn
52-week High/Low: US$35.92 / US$14.88

Key Takeaways

Bilibili's advertising business is a strong growth engine, with AI-related ad budgets rising c. 180% YoY.
VAS and live streaming continue to contribute significantly to revenue and profit.
Mobile games saw a 14% YoY decline, but new titles are expected to improve this in 2026.
AI investment is expected to slow margin expansion in FY26E but offer long-term benefits.
The target price is lowered, but the BUY rating remains unchanged due to strong revenue growth and monetization potential.