生态环境部：中国风电和太阳能发电潜力评估（2024）_62页_9mb

Introduction and Background

The study assesses wind and solar power potential in China to support carbon neutrality goals, energy security, and sustainable development. Due to significant regional differences in energy resources and demand, fine-grained evaluation is essential for precise planning.

Methodology

The assessment follows a path from resource potential to technical development potential to installation status and scenario analysis. It evaluates data at a 10km grid resolution using historical data and two scenarios: Policy Scenario (aligned with national and regional plans) and Fast Scenario (high-growth assumption).

Key Findings for Wind Power

• Under the Policy Scenario (2023-2035), southern and northwest China show the highest growth (up to 162%), while central regions also increase significantly.
• In the Fast Scenario, southern and eastern areas experience rapid expansion (up to 318%).
• High-wind regions include Xinjiang, Inner Mongolia, and eastern coastal areas, with potential for large-scale development.

Key Findings for Solar Power

• The Policy Scenario projects highest growth in southern and eastern China (up to 162% by 2035).
• The Fast Scenario indicates strong growth in northeastern and high-capacity areas (up to 270%).
• Top solar provinces with high potential are Xinjiang, Tibet, and Qinghai, due to abundant sunlight resources.

Significance and Conclusion

This research provides critical insights for regional energy planning, grid infrastructure development, and policy-making to accelerate decarbonization and efficient renewable energy integration. It aids in targeting high-potential areas and optimizing the transition to clean energy.