卡内基国际和平基金会-US-Policy-in-Afghanistan-Changing-Strategies-Preserving-Gains_1页_147kb

U.S. Policy in Afghanistan: Changing Strategies, Preserving Gains

Core Content

This document outlines the U.S. policy considerations in Afghanistan as of May 2017. It emphasizes that while significant progress has been made in security, political, and economic domains, long-term stability and the eradication of the Taliban insurgency remain elusive. The U.S. continues to view Afghanistan as a critical issue, despite its reduced prominence in public discourse.

Main Points

• Security Challenges:
  The security environment in Afghanistan remains fragile, marked by increased violence in 2016 and a decline in government control in rural areas. The Taliban has been resurging, posing a significant threat to the Afghan state.

• Political and Economic Issues:

  • The Government of National Unity is internally divided.
  • A corrupt patronage system hinders reform efforts.
  • Economic growth has slowed following the withdrawal of international forces.
  • The Afghan government is heavily reliant on foreign aid, which raises concerns about sustainability and long-term independence.

• Regional Dynamics:

  • Tensions between Afghanistan and Pakistan are intensifying, particularly over security issues.
  • Regional competition over Afghanistan persists, complicating diplomatic efforts.

• U.S. Policy Uncertainty:
  The U.S. is uncertain about its long-term commitment to subsidizing Afghanistan, especially as al-Qaeda has been weakened. However, the risk of a collapsed Afghan government and the resurgence of terrorist activity remains high.

• Strategic Options:
  The U.S. must develop a balanced strategy that both protects its gains and terminates the conflict. The authors argue that:

  • Regional solutions (e.g., resolving India-Pakistan tensions, creating a neutral Afghanistan, or pressuring Pakistan) are too complex to rely on alone.
  • Unilateral actions (either escalation or disengagement) are impractical due to their high costs and risks.
  • Limited approaches are the most viable:
    • Moderately expanding the current commitment.
    • Pursuing a political settlement with the Taliban.
    • Fostering a long-term counterterrorism partnership.

Key Recommendations

To achieve a successful outcome, the U.S. should:

• Empower the U.S. Ambassador in Kabul: To oversee the entire strategy in Afghanistan.
• Promote National Dialogue: Encourage the Afghan government to initiate serious talks on political reconciliation.
• Engage Directly with the Taliban: Pursue direct negotiations to reach a political settlement.
• Target the Taliban Shura: If necessary, take strategic actions against the Taliban leadership.
• Pressure Pakistan: Induce Islamabad to limit the Taliban's safe havens within its borders.
• Secure Regional Support: Work with regional partners to back a political resolution in Afghanistan.

Conclusion

The document underscores the need for a nuanced and strategic approach to U.S. policy in Afghanistan, balancing security, political reconciliation, and regional cooperation. It highlights that the U.S. cannot afford to disengage or escalate without careful consideration of the potential consequences, and that a political settlement with the Taliban, supported by a strengthened Afghan state, is the most promising path forward.

About the Authors

• Ashley J. Tellis: Senior fellow at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, specializing in international security and U.S. foreign and defense policy, with a focus on Asia and the Indian subcontinent.
• Jeff Eggers: Senior fellow at New America, focusing on the behavioral science of policy decisionmaking.

Contact

• Tara Medeiros
  Deputy Director of Communications
  Phone: +1 202 939 2372
  Email: tmedeiros@ceip.org

Carnegie Endowment for International Peace

The Carnegie Endowment is a global network of policy research centers dedicated to advancing peace through analysis and engagement. It does not take institutional policy positions, and the views expressed are those of the authors.