2025-05-15-Jefferies-精选国际酒店（CHH）_在低能见度环境下总体喜忧参半_12页_257kb

Rating and Price Target: Jefferies maintains a Hold rating on Choice Hotels International (CHH) with a price target of $133, reflecting a 5% increase from the prior trading day's close of $126.23.

Performance Overview for Q1 2025: Revenues of $332.9 million, slightly above $326.6 million in Jefferies' estimate and below Street consensus of $346.6 million, with Adj. EBITDA of $129.6 million meeting expectations. Domestic system-wide RevPAR grew 2.3% year-over-year to $46.28, but domestic unit growth decelerated, while the average royalty rate increased to 5.11%, driven by system improvements.

Analyst Commentary: The analysis highlights modestly mixed quarterly results, reiterating the Hold rating due to near-term pressures from transient demand and select service segments. However, positive aspects include improved system execution increasing royalty rates, supporting long-term EBITDA growth. Management expects a slight total unit growth this year, offset by domestic pipeline challenges and contract execution dynamics.

Financial Projections: For the remainder of 2025 and into 2026, Jefferies' estimates were refined downward due to lower RevPAR guidance. Q2 2025 revenue estimates were reduced to $434 million from $440 million, with EBITDA at $166 million. Full-year 2025 estimates now project $1,585 million in revenue and $620 million in Adj. EBITDA, reflecting mix adjustments and revenue moderation.

Long-Term Outlook: The investment thesis includes moderate pressure on new unit growth (NUG) for 2025, with opportunities in higher-RevPAR segments and acceleration in capital returns. Key drivers for upside include integration of Radisson, organic growth through Cambria, and capital return initiatives.

Risks and Uncertainties: Short-term risks stem from macroeconomic uncertainties, competition, and seasonal RevPAR declines (e.g., April YOY drop due to Easter shift and prior-year events). Long-term catalysts include incremental acquisitions, increased capital returns, and benefits from the Comfort Inn brand, alongside sustainability focuses.

Valuation Analysis: The price target is based on blended forward 2025/2026 EBITDA multiples of 12.5x, P/E of 19x, and P/FCFE of 16x, with a five-year DCF incorporating moderate FCF growth. Current metrics show comparability with historical ranges, supporting the Hold rating amid economic risks.

Key Takeaways:

• Near-term caution due to demand pressures.
• Long-term positivity from system optimizations.
• Downward revision in near-quarterly estimates.