2012年-世界发展银行全球_Econometric_Analysis_of_Youth_Smoking_Behavior_in_Turkey_51页_660kb

Summary of ECONOMETRIC ANALYSIS OF YOUTH SMOKING BEHAVIOR IN TURKEY

Core Content

This study examines the smoking behavior of Turkish youth, focusing on the prevalence rate and consumption patterns among secondary and high school students. It utilizes data from the Global Youth Tobacco Survey (GYTS) conducted in 2003 to analyze the factors influencing youth smoking, including family and friend behavior, accessibility, perception of smoking, exposure to tobacco-related messages, and addiction levels. The findings are used to develop policy recommendations aimed at reducing youth smoking in Turkey.

Main Viewpoints

• Tobacco Use as a Global Health Issue: Tobacco use is a major health concern worldwide, with a projected increase in deaths from smoking. Developing countries are more affected due to higher male smoking rates, increasing female smoking rates, and weak tobacco control measures.

• Youth Smoking Prevalence in Turkey: The smoking prevalence rate among Turkish students is 10.43%, with males smoking more than females (13.32% vs. 5.49%). The prevalence rate increases with age, reaching 15.23% in the 9th grade. The rate among students aged 13 or younger is unexpectedly high, possibly due to weak enforcement of anti-smoking laws and inaccurate age reporting.

• Regional Variations: Smoking prevalence and consumption are higher in certain regions, such as the Southeastern, Eastern, and Inner Anatolia regions, where loose tobacco is more accessible. In contrast, the Marmara region, particularly Istanbul, has the highest tobacco consumption among youth.

• Family Influence: Students whose parents smoke are more likely to smoke. Mothers' smoking behavior has a stronger influence than fathers', possibly due to higher exposure and softer attitudes towards providing cigarettes. Students with siblings who smoke also have higher smoking rates and consume more cigarettes.

• Friend Influence: Students who have friends who smoke are more likely to smoke. The prevalence rate is significantly higher for students whose all close friends smoke (61%). This suggests a strong peer influence on smoking behavior.

• Accessibility to Cigarettes: Easy access to cigarettes at home and in the market increases the likelihood of smoking. Students who can purchase cigarettes without refusal or difficulty tend to smoke more frequently and consume more cigarettes.

• Perception of Smoking: Students generally perceive smoking as socially undesirable. However, those who believe smoking is socially acceptable or beneficial (e.g., for weight loss) are more likely to smoke. Smokers tend to have more positive perceptions of smoking than non-smokers.

• Health Awareness: While most students are aware of the health risks of smoking, this awareness is lower among smokers. Students who are not informed about the harmful effects of smoking have higher smoking rates and consume more cigarettes.

• Exposure to Tobacco Campaigns: Students are generally not exposed to anti-tobacco messages. However, those who are exposed to such messages still have higher smoking rates, indicating potential endogeneity. Smokers are more exposed to pro-tobacco messages, especially from media and public events.

• Addiction and Quitting Behavior: Addiction is measured through morning cravings and difficulty in quitting. Students who experience morning cravings or find it difficult to abstain from smoking for a week are more likely to be heavy smokers. Most students express a desire to quit, but only a minority receive professional help or support.

Key Information

• Sample Size and Methodology: The GYTS survey included 202 schools and 15,957 students, using a two-step cluster sampling design. The survey collects data on students' general characteristics, smoking habits, family and friend smoking behavior, knowledge of health effects, and exposure to tobacco-related messages.

• Variables and Models: A two-step econometric model is used. The first step estimates the probability of smoking using a logit model, and the second step estimates the demand for cigarettes among smokers using a linear model.

• Demographic Factors: Smoking prevalence increases with age and is higher among males. Students with higher income levels are more likely to smoke, but those with no pocket money or low income may still smoke more due to self-rolled cigarette use.

• Policy Implications: The study highlights the need for stronger enforcement of tobacco control laws, increased awareness campaigns, and educational interventions in schools to curb youth smoking.

Conclusion

The analysis underscores that youth smoking in Turkey is influenced by a range of factors, including family and friend behavior, accessibility to cigarettes, social perception, and health awareness. The findings suggest that policy interventions should focus on addressing these factors to reduce the prevalence of smoking among young people and mitigate its long-term health and economic impacts.