2025-06-14-Jefferies-帝斯曼-芬美意（DSFIR）_第二季度预览-美国市场和紫外线相关业务仍是有机增长的悬而未决因素_10页_244kb

Key Analysis and Summary of DSM-Firmenich Equity Research Report

• Rating and Recommendation: The report maintains a "BUY" rating with a price target of €127 per share, representing a 32% upside from the prior close of €96.24. This is supported by average SOTP and DCF valuations and marks a 2% lower EBITDA estimate for the company.

• Financial Forecasts: For the second quarter of 2025, JEF estimates organic sales growth of 4% (excluding animal nutrition) and EBITDA of €612 million. The FY2025 EBITDA is expected at €2,354 million, with DCF and SOTP valuations averaging €127 per share. Revenue is projected to grow steadily, while EBITDA margin is estimated at 18% for 2025, indicating slight pressure due to comparables.

• Operational and Growth Outlook: DSM-Firmenich's organic growth is forecast at 4% for Q2 2025, but it is slightly below F&F peers like Symrise and Givaudan (average 5.3% growth). Key risks include U.S. consumer weakness (25% of group exposure), challenging P&B comparables from prior-year UV filter sales, and lower vitamin prices. However, merger synergies and ramp-up of Bovaer are expected to partially offset these concerns. The company anticipates abating these overhangs by the end of 2025.

• Strategic Initiatives: The divestment of the animal nutrition business is progressing, with interested parties in advanced due diligence. This is expected to improve margins, reduce capital intensity, and enable multi-year shareholder returns, potentially above dividend levels if the company becomes net cash post-divestment. Low-level M&A is anticipated, focusing on bolt-on deals.

• Valuation: The current EV/EBITDA multiple is around 12x, offering a 25% discount to peers. DCF and SOTP valuations support the €127 price target. Post-divestment, the company could see increased capital returns, including buybacks and dividends.

• Risks and Catalysts: Risks include margin pressure on commodity vitamins and M&A integration challenges. Catalysts are expected in Q2 2025 results, completion of the animal nutrition divestment, vitamin price recoveries, and enhanced shareholder communication. Volatility from U.S. consumer trends and global trade uncertainties could impact performance.

• Sustainability: DSM-Firmenich targets a 50% reduction in GHG emissions by 2030, renewable energy procurement by 2030, and net-zero by 2050. These goals could influence valuation through ESG considerations, with potential negative ESG impacts highlighted in the report. Management is expected to discuss supplier collaboration, decarbonization costs, and merger impacts in future briefings.

• High-Level Views: The investment thesis includes mid-single-digit organic growth driven by nutrition exposure and successful Firmenich integration, which could lead to higher EPS accretion. However, risk factors like vitamin price troughs and margins remain, with the potential for upside or downside scenarios based on execution.