2021-05-31-国际事务研究院-迈向COP26_解开气候谈判的结（英文）_23页_887kb

2021 Climate Negotiations Summary: Towards COP26

Core Content

The upcoming COP26 in Glasgow, Scotland, is a pivotal event in global climate governance, tasked with finalising the remaining rules of the Paris Agreement, particularly around common timeframes for NDCs, enhanced transparency framework, and international carbon markets (Article 6). It also aims to mobilise climate finance, address adaptation and loss and damage, and collect revised NDCs to ensure a progressive increase in climate ambition leading up to the Global Stocktake in 2023.

Main Objectives of COP26

• Finalise the Paris rulebook: Address unresolved technical and political issues from COP25, especially the common timeframe for NDCs, transparency requirements, and carbon market rules.
• Mobilise climate finance: Focus on the $100 billion/year commitment to developing countries, the need for predictable and accessible funding, and the reorientation of financial flows to better support adaptation and loss and damage.
• Revise NDCs: Encourage stronger and more ambitious national climate action plans, with a focus on transformative pathways for emissions reductions and climate resilience.
• Strengthen international cooperation: Address global supply chain emissions, carbon border adjustment mechanisms, and international carbon market integrity.

Key Topics and Challenges

1. Common Timeframes for NDCs

• The EU prefers deferring the decision, while the US and Canada advocate for a five-year timeframe.
• Russia and Japan support a ten-year timeframe.
• Brazil and vulnerable countries in Africa and Latin America prefer shorter timeframes to allow for more frequent revisions.
• The goal is to ensure all NDCs align on a common time horizon to ease tracking and increase ambition.

2. Enhanced Transparency Framework

• Transparent reporting is crucial to assess whether countries are turning commitments into action.
• Developed countries typically prioritise high transparency standards.
• Capacity-building is essential to help all countries meet new reporting requirements.
• Discussions between Chile (COP25) and UK (COP26) are ongoing to refine transparency rules.

3. International Carbon Markets (Article 6)

• Article 6 allows countries to use international carbon markets to achieve emission reductions.
• IETA estimates that Article 6 could reduce the cost of implementing NDCs by over 50% and facilitate the removal of ~5 gigatonnes of CO₂ annually by 2030.
• Key challenges include avoiding double-counting, ensuring integrity of carbon credits, and addressing divergent interests among developed and developing countries.
• The San José group and Race to Zero campaign are pushing for high-integrity carbon markets.

4. Climate Finance

• The $100 billion/year commitment from developed countries to developing nations remains unfulfilled.
• Adaptation finance is severely underfunded, with only 1.6% coming from private sources.
• Loss and damage is a politically sensitive issue, as developing countries are disproportionately affected by climate impacts.
• The Santiago Network was established at COP25 to provide technical support on loss and damage, but funding remains a major hurdle.

5. Political and Economic Context

• The postponement of COP26 due to the pandemic allowed for new leadership (e.g., the US under Biden) and shifts in climate policy.
• The G7 and G20 play a critical role in setting political signals and financial benchmarks.
• Private sector engagement is increasing, with climate-related financial disclosures and sustainability investment criteria being key focus areas.
• Green recovery efforts are seen as an opportunity to align economic stimulus with climate goals.

Progress and Outlook

• There is increased competition among major economies to raise climate ambition.
• Piloting activities are providing insights into how international carbon markets can yield robust emissions outcomes.
• The Climate Vulnerable Forum is pushing for a political outcome on loss and damage at COP26.
• Public-private partnerships and multi-stakeholder initiatives are expected to play a significant role in driving climate action.

Conclusion

COP26 represents a critical juncture in global climate negotiations, requiring technical progress, political consensus, and inclusive financial mechanisms to unlock the full potential of the Paris Agreement. The complexity of the agenda, domestic priorities, and international tensions underscore the need for holistic and pragmatic approaches to ensure a successful and equitable outcome.