BCG-2020年奢侈品市场概览-2020.1-44页_1mb

2020 Luxury FirstLook Summary

Core Content

The 2020 Luxury FirstLook report provides an overview of the luxury market trends up to 2025, focusing on personal and experiential luxury, consumer behavior, and the impact of digital and social trends. Key insights include market growth, generational and national trends, the role of collaborations and second-hand markets, sustainability, and the shift towards casual and niche brands.

Main Market Trends

• Luxury Market Growth: The global luxury market reached ~920 B€ in 2018 and is expected to grow at 4.6% annually until 2025. The experiential segment is growing 2% faster than the personal segment.
• Personal Luxury Market: Expected to reach 405 B€ by 2025, growing at 3% per year. This growth is driven by perfumes, cosmetics, and accessories.
• Millennials and Gen Z: By 2025, Millennials are expected to represent ~50% of the personal luxury market, with Gen Z projected to triple in size. Millennials are also expected to double in number.
• Chinese Consumers: Chinese consumers are projected to represent ~40% of the personal luxury market by 2025, contributing 75% of the growth in the personal luxury segment. The affluent Chinese class is expected to double by 2025.

True-Luxury Consumers

• Definition: 18.5M True-Luxury Consumers generate ~30% of the global luxury market.
• Growth: ~90% of the True-Luxury growth will come from new consumers, while ~10% from increased spending per existing consumer.
• Sustainability Influence: ~60% of True-Luxury consumers are influenced by sustainability, with younger generations and South Koreans showing the highest interest.
• Environmental and Animal Criteria: These are the most valued sustainability criteria, particularly among younger consumers.
• Second-Hand Market: The second-hand luxury market is estimated at 22 B€ and is growing faster than the overall personal luxury market. ~60% of True-Luxury consumers are interested in purchasing second-hand items, with ~34% having sold them.

Collaborations

• Awareness: ~90% of True-Luxury consumers are aware of collaborations, with ~50% purchasing them.
• Drivers: Chinese consumers (62%) and younger generations (67% Gen Z, 60% Millennials) are the main drivers of collaboration demand.
• Top Categories: Handbags, sneakers, and formal shoes dominate special edition purchases.

Channel Mix

• Online vs In-Store: ~80% of purchases are made through a mix of online and in-store channels, with ~50% being omnichannel.
• Preferred Channels: Mono-brand stores remain the preferred channel due to the experience and product range, except in China where online channels are growing.
• Online Growth: Over 20% of last purchases were made online, contributing to market growth rather than cannibalizing in-store sales (~60% additional growth vs ~40% cannibalization).

Shift to Niche and Sports Brands

• Shift Trend: ~46% of True-Luxury consumers have shifted spending from traditional luxury brands to niche and sports brands.
• Reasons for Shift: Perceived exclusivity (younger generations) and price-quality ratio (older generations) are the main reasons.
• Product Categories: Casual items like sneakers, jeans, and backpacks are driving this shift, while silk goods, jewelry, and cosmetics remain resilient.

Customization

• Demand: Customization demand is stabilizing at a high level, with product configuration and made-to-measure being the most desired.
• Generational Differences: Younger consumers show greater preference for customized and unique products.

Influencers and Social Media

• Influence: Social media and influencers are the primary sources of impact on True-Luxury consumers, with a 3pp increase since 2016 and a 30pp increase since 2013.
• China Focus: Influencers are twice as relevant in China compared to Europe and the US.

Key Trends Identified

1. Collaborations - Awareness reaching ~90%, with 50% of True-Luxury consumers purchasing collaborations.
2. Second-Hand Luxury - Gaining traction, reaching 7% of the personal luxury market and growing at 12% annually.
3. Sustainability - Influencing ~60% of True-Luxury consumers, with environmental and animal concerns being most valued.
4. Luxury Casualwear - Growing in relevance, affecting ~74% of True-Luxury consumers, driven by sneakers and jeans.
5. Influencers - Increasing in relevance, especially in China.
6. Social Media - Growing in all geographies, with the greatest influence in China.
7. Online Sales - Growing, with over 20% of last purchases online.
8. Omnichannel - Accounts for 50% of the market, with variations across geographies.
9. Mono-Brand Stores - Stabilizing in popularity, except in China.
10. Made-in - Made-in Italy continues to lead in global appeal among True-Luxury consumers and Millennials.
11. Mix & Match - Niche and sports brands are driving greater shifts in consumer spending.
12. Customization - Demand remains high, with product configuration and bespoke options being most desired.

Conclusion

The luxury market is evolving with a focus on experiential and personal goods, driven by younger generations and Chinese consumers. Sustainability, collaborations, and second-hand markets are becoming increasingly important, while the shift towards casual and niche brands continues. Online and social media are playing a pivotal role in shaping consumer behavior, with omnichannel and mono-brand stores remaining key in the market. Customization and unique product details are highly valued, especially by younger consumers.